Betting on NFL games is not just a matter of luck (for long-term winners), it’s an art and a science that involves deep analysis, understanding of the game, and strategy.
Professional NFL bettors use betting systems to maximize their chances of success.
These systems are designed to provide structure to the betting process and help bettors make more informed decisions.
Best NFL Betting Systems
Let’s take a look at some of the best NFL betting systems used by professionals.
1. Value Betting
Value betting is perhaps the most basic system used by professional sports bettors.
It involves finding games where the odds offered are better than the actual probability of the event occurring.
This system requires a good understanding of both the sport and the way odds are calculated.
Professionals often use statistical models to estimate probabilities more accurately than the odds set by bookmakers. By consistently betting on games where they perceive the odds to be in their favor, they can achieve a positive long-term return.
Example: Imagine a scenario where statistical models suggest that the Miami Dolphins have a 60% chance of winning against the New York Jets, but the bookmakers have set the odds at +120 (implying a 45% probability).
A professional bettor recognizes this discrepancy as a value bet and places a significant wager on the Dolphins, exploiting the undervalued odds for a potentially higher return.
2. The Martingale System
The Martingale system is a popular betting strategy that involves doubling the bet size after each loss, aiming to recover previous losses and gain a profit equal to the original bet when a win eventually occurs.
In the NFL, this strategy is often modified to a less risky approach, where the increase in bet size is more conservative.
This system can be profitable in NFL betting, particularly because the odds for even matchups (close to even money) are common, but it requires a significant bankroll to absorb potential consecutive losses.
Example: A bettor uses the Martingale system starting with a $100 bet on an NFL game at even odds.
After a loss, they double the bet to $200 on another game with similar odds. The bettor continues this pattern until securing a win, which would not only cover all previous losses but also yield the initial $100 profit, assuming the bankroll can sustain the potential large losses.
3. Hedging
Hedging is a strategy used to reduce risk and secure winnings. In NFL betting, this might involve placing a bet on the opposing team when the potential win from the original bet is substantial.
For instance, if a bettor has a large parlay that’s one game away from winning, they might place a single bet on the last game’s opposing team to ensure a profit regardless of the outcome.
Professional bettors use this technique to manage risk, especially in playoff games or the Super Bowl, where unexpected outcomes can be more common.
Example: A bettor has a $20 bet on a 4-team parlay that could win $500.
Heading into the last game, three teams have won, and the final leg depends on the Los Angeles Rams beating the Seattle Seahawks.
To ensure a profit, the bettor places a $200 bet on the Seahawks at +150.
This hedge guarantees a significant profit whether the Rams win (completing the parlay) or the Seahawks win (offsetting the lost parlay with the hedge bet).
More info on how to hedge a bet.
4. Statistical Arbitrage
Statistical arbitrage in NFL betting involves exploiting discrepancies in odds offered by different bookmakers.
By placing bets on all possible outcomes of a game across different sportsbooks, where the odds allow for a guaranteed profit, professional bettors can lock in a return.
This requires having accounts with multiple bookmakers and being quick to act before the odds are adjusted.
Example: The bettor finds that one sportsbook offers -110 odds on the Philadelphia Eagles to win, while another offers +115 on their opponent, the Dallas Cowboys.
By placing $100 on the Eagles and $87 on the Cowboys, the bettor guarantees a small profit regardless of the game’s outcome, exploiting the arbitrage betting opportunity between the differing odds.
5. Follow the Money
This system involves tracking where the “sharp money” is going, i.e., where the experienced bettors are putting their money.
This can be a strong indicator of something the average bettor may not see. Professional bettors often have networks or subscribe to services that alert them to significant movements in betting lines, which are typically driven by large wagers placed by professional bettors.
By following these movements, they can piggyback on the research and insights of other experienced bettors.
Example: Before a particularly contentious game between the New England Patriots and the Pittsburgh Steelers, a sharp increase in the betting line moves due to heavy betting on the Patriots.
A professional bettor, recognizing that this shift likely represents informed money betting on the Patriots due to insider knowledge or a key player injury on the Steelers, decides to follow the movement and bets on the Patriots as well.
6. The Contrarian Method (Betting Against the Public)
Also known as “fading the public,” this strategy involves betting against the team that the majority of the public is backing.
The idea is that the public can often be wrong, and by going against them, especially when public opinion is heavily skewed, a bettor can take advantage of inflated odds.
Professional bettors watch the betting percentages closely and apply this strategy when they feel the public sentiment is unjustifiably strong on one side.
Example: In a highly publicized match where the majority of the public is heavily betting on the favored Green Bay Packers against the underdog Detroit Lions, a professional bettor notes that 80% of the bets are on the Packers.
The bettor chooses to go contrarian by betting on the Lions, capitalizing on potentially inflated odds due to public bias.
7. Using Prop Bets and In-Game Wagering
Prop bets can offer value that other types of bets do not. Professional bettors use their in-depth knowledge of player statistics and game trends to exploit these bets.
Additionally, in-game wagering, or live betting, allows professionals to see how a game is unfolding before placing their bets.
This can be particularly useful in NFL games, where momentum can shift dramatically.
Example: A bettor uses their in-depth knowledge to place a prop bet on Tom Brady throwing over 2.5 touchdowns against a team with a weak pass defense.
During the game, noticing that the opposing team’s star cornerback is injured, the bettor places additional in-game wagers on Brady to exploit the favorable situation further.
For Long-Term NFL Betting Profits – Stick To Strategy!
Professional NFL bettors use a variety of systems to enhance their chances of making profitable bets.
While no system guarantees success, these strategies, when applied judiciously and in combination with thorough research and disciplined bankroll management, can significantly increase the odds of achieving long-term profitability in NFL betting.
Whether it’s capitalizing on value, managing risk through hedging, or exploiting market inefficiencies, the key to success in NFL betting lies in the systematic and informed application of these strategies.
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