In NBA betting, relying on basic statistics like total points per game, points spreads or rebounds per game is no longer sufficient.
Advanced statistics have transformed how punters analyse games, teams, and players.
Understanding these metrics can provide a significant edge in predicting game outcomes more accurately for your NBA betting.
1. Player Efficiency Rating (PER)
Purpose: PER is a holistic measure developed by John Hollinger to summarize a player’s statistical accomplishments in a single number. It assesses a player’s per-minute performance, adjusting for pace of play. This rating helps bettors understand which players are truly efficient and impactful during their time on the court.
Calculation: PER is calculated by adding positive accomplishments such as points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks, while subtracting negative aspects like missed shots, turnovers, and personal fouls.
The formula is complex, involving a constant that adjusts the PER to an average of 15 across the league. Essentially, a PER above 15 suggests above-average efficiency, whereas below 15 indicates below-average performance.
2. True Shooting Percentage (TS%)
Purpose: NBA True Shooting Percentage is an efficiency metric that considers all aspects of scoring, including field goals, 3-point field goals, and free throws. It gives a true measure of a player’s ability to score efficiently, which is crucial for assessing scoring threats.
Calculation:
TS%=
Total Points
Divided By
(2×(Field Goal Attempts+0.44×Free Throw Attempts))
This formula better reflects a player’s scoring efficiency by accounting for the different types of shots.
3. Win Shares (WS)
Purpose: Win Shares is an estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player. It’s useful for bettors to evaluate how much a player’s performance might impact the game’s outcome, especially in close matchups.
Calculation: Win Shares are derived from a player’s offensive and defensive contributions, calculated separately and then summed. The calculation involves many components, including points produced, offensive possessions, defensive rating, and the team’s pace.
The resulting figure is then divided by the number of wins required per win share, which typically involves a complex formula based on team performance.
4. Box Plus/Minus (BPM)
Purpose: Box Plus/Minus is a box score-based metric that measures a player’s contribution to the team when they are on the court, relative to the league average player.
It’s segmented into Offensive BPM (OBPM) and Defensive BPM (DBPM), which allows bettors to differentiate players’ impacts on both ends of the court.
Calculation: BPM is calculated using a regression analysis of historical box score data and adjustments for pace and playing time. The formula considers the player’s stats in context to their team’s overall performance, thus providing a measure of individual impact.
5. Usage Rate (USG%)
Purpose: Usage Rate measures what percentage of team plays a player was involved in while they were on the floor. It’s crucial for identifying players who are heavily relied upon in their team’s offensive strategies, which might influence game outcomes significantly.
Calculation:
USG%=
100×(Field Goal Attempts+0.44×Free Throw Attempts+Turnovers)
Divided By
Total Team Minutes/5×(Team Field Goal Attempts+0.44×Team Free Throw Attempts+Team Turnovers)
This statistic helps in assessing how much a player is involved in the offensive play.
Use Advanced Stats To Your Advantage
Advanced statistics offer a more nuanced view of players and teams, providing insights beyond traditional metrics.
By understanding and using these metrics, NBA bettors can gain a very good edge in picking games, spotting undervalued players, and making more profitable betting decisions.
As the NBA continues to evolve, so too does the analysis required to stay ahead in the betting game. Armed with these advanced tools, bettors can refine their NBA betting strategies and potentially increase their success rate.
