Basketball and betting share more similarities than one might imagine. Success in both endeavors often hinges on the use of a reliable system. Having a well-established offensive strategy, applicable to every game, can provide a significant advantage.
Think of examples like Mike D’Antoni’s free-flowing space-and-pace approach or Jerry Sloan’s nearly unbeatable pick-and-roll offense from the 1980s and 90s.
Likewise, a structured set of rules that can be applied to every game, regardless of the teams involved, can yield comparable advantages.
The good news is that you don’t need to create your betting system from scratch. Several strategies are readily available for you to adopt, and there’s no harm in borrowing from the playbooks of those who have come before you.
Below, we’ve outlined some of the most dependable systems and money-management strategies, along with guidance on their application. When combined with a deep understanding of the game and applied in conjunction with real-time NBA odds, these systems can elevate even novice bettors to star status.
NBA Betting Systems & Strategies
Without further ado, lets check out some of the most profitable NBA betting systems and strategies.
The High Totals System
Few strategies are as straightforward to learn and implement as the High Totals System, created by Allen Moody, a sports-betting expert and the author of “Becoming a Winning Gambler” and “Sports Betting Basics.” Moody noticed that sportsbooks often underestimated the total points scored in NBA non-conference games.
He started consistently betting on the over/under of 220 total points or more, and this simple strategy proved successful, with a 63.5% accuracy rate from 2004-05 to 2008-09.
While such high-scoring games were relatively rare a decade ago, they have become more common as teams have increased the pace and three-point shooting. Even though sportsbooks have adjusted, there is still value in betting on the over in games with high total-point projections.
The Blowout System
It might seem logical that an NBA team which wins a game by 15 points or more would maintain momentum and secure another double-digit victory in their next game.
However, statistical analysis by Sports Insights has revealed that home favorites of ten points or more, fresh off a 15-point victory, only beat the spread 42.5% of the time.
In reality, teams that dominate one game often struggle in the following one. This could be due to player fatigue, overconfidence, or an overreaction by oddsmakers to the previous game. Betting against a team that recently demolished its opponent can be a profitable strategy.
The Bounce Back System
On the flip side, NBA teams that have had poor offensive performances often exhibit a remarkable ability to bounce back during their next home game. Bet Labs studied 250 games where home teams had subpar offensive showings and found that these teams exceeded the projected point total nearly 62% of the time.
This phenomenon is often attributed to the “home-court advantage.”
When conducting your research, look for strong teams that shot under 40% from the field in their previous games, and consider betting on the over in their next home matchup.
The Three in Four System
While the NBA has made efforts to reduce back-to-back games, it is still common for teams to play their third game in four nights. Research from TheSportsGeek.com indicates that teams in this scenario surpass the projected point total 58.8% of the time.
The likely explanation is that playing defense requires more effort than offense, and fatigued players tend to defend with less intensity. Consequently, it is advisable to bet on the “over” when this situation arises in the schedule.
The Back-to-Back System
NBA teams often struggle to win the second game of back-to-backs, but not all teams struggle equally. An analysis by numberFire in 2016 revealed that teams with winning records lost 5% more often on the second night of a back-to-back, while teams with losing records lost 11% more frequently. Additionally, location played a significant role, with teams playing the second game on the road being 18% more likely to lose.
Taking these factors into account when making bets can be highly advantageous. Consider a team’s average age, pace of play, and the number of time zone adjustments they’ve had to make during their recent games.
The Tunnel System
Imagine significantly reducing your risk of loss in every bet you make. The Tunnel Betting System offers this opportunity by capitalizing on the fact that different sportsbooks often offer varying game totals with the same odds.
For example, one sportsbook might set the game total for a matchup at 216 points, while another has it at 213 points, both with the same odds. By using the Tunnel System, you can bet the over (213) at one sportsbook and the under (216) at another.
If the final combined score falls within the “tunnel” of 214-215 points, you win both bets. This strategy requires you to win both bets approximately 10% of the time to be profitable, as you generally face -110 odds on both wagers.
To successfully employ the Tunnel System, keep an eye out for minor discrepancies among online NBA betting sites, as finding totals greater than two points apart is rare.
The Martingale System
While it’s impossible to win every bet, the Martingale System offers a potential long-term win by doubling your bet each time you lose until you win. Suppose you bet $20 on a team’s game total, and they fail to meet it. The Martingale System would then require you to double your bet to $40 on their next game, and so on.
The key to this system is patience, a substantial bankroll, and an understanding of statistical trends. At some point, you may need to stop if your losses become too significant.
However, with diligent research and patience, you may eventually profit. This strategy involves considering factors such as a team’s current scoring average, player matchups, key injuries, and the pace of play for both teams.
The D’Alembert System
Similar to the Martingale System, the D’Alembert System is a progressive betting strategy, but it carries less financial risk due to its more conservative nature. With this approach, you select a starting bet amount and increase it by a fixed increment when you lose and decrease it by the same increment when you win.
For example, if you start with a $10 bet and lose, you bet $20 on the next game. If you lose again, you bet $30, and so on. If you win, you revert to your original bet amount, and the cycle continues.
The D’Alembert System is generally less lucrative than the Martingale System but is suitable for bettors with smaller bankrolls who prefer lower risk.
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