*These computer picks are done the morning of game day, adjust picks should spreads and lineups change.
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PHOENIX @ MINNESOTA
WESTERN CONFERENCE 1ST ROUND – GAME 2
MINNESOTA LEADS 1-0
Over/Under Pick: Under 212.5 Total Points
This game presents a strong case for an under bet, largely influenced by Phoenix’s consistent performance in hitting the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 63 games, reflecting a solid 20% ROI. The Timberwolves also support this trend, especially in quarters like the 3Q, where they have frequently gone under.
Phoenix’s trends in the 4Q Game Total Under in 47 of their last 68 games aligns with potential late-game slowdowns in scoring.
Considering these under performances in various game segments, placing a bet on under 212.5 total points is well-supported.
ATS Pick: Minnesota Timberwolves -2.0
The Timberwolves have shown robust capability to cover spreads in crucial games, notably covering their last 3 Western Conference First Round games.
This strength is complemented by Phoenix’s struggles in playoff contexts, particularly evident in their recent string of losses when positioned as underdogs. Minnesota’s consistent covering in the 3Q further cements their ability to manage and extend leads, making them favorable to cover a -2.0 spread in this setup.
Best Pick: Under 212.5 Total Points
INDIANA @ MILWAUKEE
EASTERN CONFERENCE 1ST ROUND – GAME 2
MILWAUKEE LEADS 1-0
Over/Under Pick: Under 223.0 Total Points
This game strongly leans towards an under bet due to the notable under trends from both teams, particularly in specific game segments.
The Indiana Pacers have consistently hit the Game Total Under in their away games, with a 42% ROI in 23 of their last 31 away games. The Bucks have shown a penchant for hitting the 1Q Game Total Under at home, achieving a 50% ROI in 16 of their last 20 home games.
This with the Bucks’ trend of hitting the 1H Game Total Under at home, these patterns suggest a slower scoring game, making under 222.0 points a sensible bet.
ATS Pick: Milwaukee Bucks -1.0
Milwaukee’s performance against the spread, particularly in the first half and first quarter at home, makes them a solid bet to cover a narrow -1.0 spread. They have successfully covered the 1Q Spread in 24 of their last 34 home games and the 1H Spread in 26 of their last 41 home games.
Given these trends and Indiana’s struggle in recent playoff appearances, where they’ve failed to cover in their last 9 playoff games, Milwaukee’s home court advantage and ability to start strong make them likely to cover.
Best Pick: Under 223.0 Total Points
DALLAS @ LA CLIPPERS
LA CLIPPERS LEADS 1-0
WESTERN CONFERENCE 1ST ROUND – GAME 2
Over/Under Pick: Under 216.5 Total Points
The unders seems quite promising for this matchup, influenced heavily by both teams’ recent performance trends. The Mavs have been consistent in hitting the Game Total Under, hitting this in 39 of their last 58 games, and the 2Q Game Total Under in 36 of their last 54 games, showcasing the ability to control game pace and scoring.
The LA Clippers have shown a tendency towards low scoring games, hitting the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 78 games. Given these trends, coupled with the historical under outcomes at Crypto.com Arena, the under 217.5 total points is a well-supported bet.
ATS Pick: Dallas Mavericks +1.5
Dallas has shown a solid ability to cover the spread, doing so in 24 of their last 34 games. Additionally, they’ve had a strong finish in games, covering the 4Q Spread in 15 of their last 20 matchups.
The Clippers have struggled in Game 2 scenarios in the playoffs, losing their last 6, and have had recent challenges covering the spread at home. Given Dallas’ consistent performance against the spread and the Clippers’ struggles, betting on Dallas to cover +1.5 appears to be a sound pick.
