*These NBA computer picks are done the morning of game day, adjust picks should spreads and lineups change.
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PHILADELPHIA @ NEW YORK
EASTERN CONFERENCE 1ST ROUND – GAME 5
NEW YORK LEADS 3-1
Over/Under Prediction: Under 202.0 Total Points
Both the Knicks and the 76ers have trended towards lower-scoring games, especially in playoff matchups. The Knicks have seen 12 of their last 13 Eastern First Round home games go Unders.
The 76ers have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 47 of their last 76 games, suggesting a preference for slower starts.
Moreover, in their recent playoff encounters, the Knicks have won their last 4 home games against the 76ers, showing ability to control pace and limit scoring for their opponents. With both teams likely to prioritize defense, the under appears to be a solid bet for this matchup.
ATS Prediction: New York Knicks -4.0
The Knicks have held strong at home against the 76ers, winning their last 4 playoff home games against them. Additionally, New York have covered 4 of their last 5 home games against teams above .500, indicating their ability to perform well against strong opponents at Madison Square Garden.
The 76ers’ recent dominance in the first quarter on the road doesn’t necessarily translate to overall success, considering the Knicks’ historical prowess in playoff matchups against them at home. With a favorable trend and home-court advantage on their side, the Knicks are poised to cover the -4.0 in this matchup.
Best Pick: New York Knicks -4.0
ORLANDO @ CLEVELAND
EASTERN CONFERENCE 1ST ROUND – GAME 5
SERIES TIED 2-2
Over/Under Prediction: Under 199.5 Total Points
The Cavs have won the first half in 7 of their last 8 home games against the Magic, suggesting a trend towards defensive battles early in the game. The Magic have failed to cover the spread in their last 6 road games, indicating struggles to score away from home.
The Cavaliers’ last 7 playoff home games have gone Unders, a pattern of lower-scoring affairs in postseason matchups. Considering these factors along with the historical trend favoring lower-scoring games between these teams, the under seems best.
ATS Prediction: Cleveland Cavaliers -4.0
Despite both teams showing weaknesses in recent performances, the Cavaliers have historically performed well against the Magic at home in playoff matchups. The home team has won the last 9 playoff games between these two teams, indicating a strong home-court advantage for the Cavaliers in postseason scenarios.
The Cavaliers have won the first half in 7 of their last 8 home games against the Magic, suggesting they have the ability to establish an early lead and maintain it. With these factors in mind, backing the Cavaliers to cover the -4.0 spread appears to be a reasonable choice for this matchup.
Best Pick: Cleveland Cavaliers -4.0
INDIANA @ MILWAUKEE
EASTERN CONFERENCE 1ST ROUND – GAME 5
INDIANA LEADS 3-1
Over/Under Prediction: Over 214.5 Total Points
The Bucks have lost 6 of their last 7 playoff games and have covered the 1Q Spread in 24 of their last 35 games at home.. Additionally, 8 of the Bucks’ last 9 playoff games have gone Overs, suggesting a trend towards high-scoring affairs in postseason matchups.
The Pacers have covered 6 of their last 9 games against the Bucks, indicating their ability to keep pace and potentially contribute to a high-scoring game. With the trend favoring overs in playoff matchups between the Bucks and the Pacers’ the over seems like a favorable bet.
ATS Prediction: Indiana Pacers -4.5
Despite the Pacers facing a challenging opponent in the Bucks, they have covered the spread in 6 of their last 9 games against them. Moreover, the Bucks have lost 6 of their last 7 playoff games, suggesting weak spots that the Pacers could exploit to cover the -4.5 spread.
Although the Bucks have performed well in the first half against the Pacers at Fiserv Forum, the Pacers’ recent success against them indicates their ability to compete effectively. Considering these factors, backing the Pacers to cover the spread appears to be a reasonable choice.
