7 GAMES – NBA PICKS – 11/1/19

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*Original NBA picks and research are done a game day morning, adjust your selections accordingly should spreads and lineups change.

DP’S NBA PLAYER PROP

SEASON RECORD: 25-16

Expert NBA Player Props Analyst, Daniel Parisi, gives his best daily prop, exclusive to subscribers.

DETROIT @ CHICAGO

Derek Rose is averaging 23 points on 19 shot attempts per game through 5 January fixtures, which is a big enough sample size to suggest he will continue to trend above his season average of 17.8 PPG on 14.8 shot attempts per game.

His former team in the Chicago Bulls will front up on the second leg of a back to back which also will be a 3 in 4 so I expect Rose to run through that Bulls backcourt which is extremely leaky.

It’s pretty simple for the Pistons right now, it’s the Andre / Derek show and I really want to get around this increased volume.

DP’S PICK – DERRICK ROSE OVER 21.5 POINTS

TREND BETS

NEW ORLEANS @ BOSTON

PELICANS TRENDS

  • 5-0-1 ATS in last 6 games following a straight up win.
  • 3-0-2 ATS in last 5 vs teams above .600.
  • 4-0-1 ATS in last 5 vs teams above .500.
  • 4-0-1 ATS in last 5 road games.
  • 9-1-1 ATS in last 11 games overall.
  • 6-1 ATS in last 7 games playing on 0 days rest.

CELTICS TRENDS

  • 5-12-2 ATS in last 19 home games vs teams with a losing road record.
  • 1-4 ATS in last 5 games overall.
  • 0-4 ATS in last 4 home games.
  • 3-8-1 ATS in last 12 home games vs teams with a road winning % below .400.

TREND BET – NEW ORLEANS +8.5

*Strongest trend bet of the night. Not necessarily our pick.

If trends are your thing, this is your pick.

MINNESOTA @ HOUSTON

TEAM TRENDS

TEAM TRENDS ->

TIMBERWOLVES TRENDS

  • 5-1 ATS in last 6 games overall.
  • 6-13-1 ATS in last 20 vs teams above .600.
  • Under is 9-1 in last 10 after allowing 100+ points in their last game.
  • Under is 8-1 in last 9 after scoring 100+ points in their last game.
  • Under is 9-3 in last 12 overall.
  • Under is 5-2 in last 7 road games.

ROCKETS TRENDS

  • 3-9 ATS in last 12 vs teams below .500.
  • Under is 4-0 in last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
  • Under is 5-1 in last 6 games following a straight up loss.
  • Under is 4-1 in last 5 home games.
  • Over is 10-3 in last 13 vs teams below .500.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • Timberwolves are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Houston.
  • Timberwolves are 4-9 ATS in the last 13 meetings.
  • Over is 18-8 in the last 26 meetings.
  • Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Houston.

SEASON SERIES

SEASON SERIES ->
17.11.19 MIN HOU 105 : 125

PLAYER TRENDS

  • Russell Westbrook has 28+ points in his last 8 games against Western Conference teams. (25.5)
  • James Harden has 8+ assists in 12 of his last 14 home games against the Timberwolves. (7.5)

() = BOOKIE LINE

WIN/LOSS

TEAM W L HOME ROAD
MIN 15 22 6-11 9-11
HOU 25 12 13-4 12-8

SEASON POINTS +/- 

TEAM PPG OPPG DIFF TOT. AV
MIN 111.9 114.1 -2.2 226.0
HOU 118.7 113.9 +4.8 232.6

PICKS ATS

 Spread Points   Result
MIN UNDER HOU
+11.0 228.5 139-109

THE RUB

The Timberwolves are winners of 5 of their last 8 and held Portland to 36.5% from the floor in a 116-102 win on Thursday. Minnesota allowed an average of 103.4 ppg in the last 8 games and totaled 10 blocked shots in Thursday’s win.

Clint Capela (right heel contusion) is being listed as questionable for this game.

Like the T-Wolves to keep in closer than -11.0 tonight up against the oldest team in the league.

OUR PICK  – MINNESOTA +11.0

NEW ORLEANS @ BOSTON

TEAM TRENDS

PELICANS TRENDS

  • 5-0-1 ATS in last 6 games following a straight up win.
  • 3-0-2 ATS in last 5 vs teams above .600.
  • 4-0-1 ATS in last 5 vs teams above .500.
  • 4-0-1 ATS in last 5 road games.
  • 9-1-1 ATS in last 11 games overall.
  • 6-1 ATS in last 7 games playing on 0 days rest.
  • Over is 7-0 in last 7 overall.
  • Over is 5-1 in last 6 vs teams above .600.
  • Under is 13-3 in last 16 vs teams above .500.

CELTICS TRENDS

  • 5-12-2 ATS in last 19 home games vs teams with a losing road record.
  • 1-4 ATS in last 5 games overall.
  • 0-4 ATS in last 4 home games.
  • 3-8-1 ATS in last 12 home games vs teams with a road winning % below .400.
  • Under is 5-2 in last 7 overall.
  • Under is 7-3 in last 10 vs teams below .500.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • Under is 13-5 in the last 18 meetings in Boston.

PLAYER TRENDS

  • Kemba Walker has 25+ points in his last 8 Saturday games. (22.5)
  • Brandon Ingram has 18 points or less in his last 5 games against the Celtics. (26.5)
  • Lonzo Ball has 21+ points in the Pelicans’ last 3 games as underdogs. (14.5)

() = BOOKIE LINE

WIN/LOSS

TEAM W L HOME ROAD
NOR 14 25 7-12 7-13
BOS 25 11 14-3 11-8

SEASON POINTS +/- 

TEAM PPG OPPG DIFF TOT. AV
NOR 113.3 116.5 -3.2 229.8
BOS 110.6 104.4 +6.2 215.0

PICKS ATS

 Spread Points   Result
NOR OVER BOS
+8.5 223.5 140-105

THE RUB

Trends lean heavily towards the Pelicans tonight ATS, with the Pelicans 9-1-1 ATS in last 11 games overall, while the Celtics are 0-4 ATS in last 4 home games and 5-12-2 ATS in last 19 home games vs teams with a losing road record.

New Orleans have won 8 of their last 11 after opening a 3-game road trip with a 123-111 win over the Knicks on Friday.

We’ve been fooled by the Celtics a few times over the last couple of weeks.

Pelicans ATS, small stake.

OUR PICK  – NEW ORLEANS +8.5

CHICAGO @ DETROIT

TEAM TRENDS

BULLS TRENDS

  • 6-2-1 ATS in last 9 road games.
  • 7-2-1 ATS in last 10 games as a road underdog.
  • 5-2 ATS in last 7 vs teams below .400.
  • 0-5-1 ATS in last 6 games overall.
  • Over is 4-0 in last 4 overall.
  • Under is 8-1 in last 9 vs teams below .400.
  • Over is 6-2 in last 8 road games.

PISTONS TRENDS

  • 13-6 ATS in last 19 home games vs teams with a road winning % below .400.
  • 3-10 ATS in last 13 games overall.
  • 2-5 ATS in last 7 vs teams below .500.
  • 2-7 ATS in last 9 games following a straight up loss.
  • 1-6 ATS in last 7 home games.
  • Over is 8-0 in last 8 games as a favorite.
  • Over is 5-0 in last 5 games as a home favorite.
  • Over is 6-0 in last 6 vs teams below .400.
  • Over is 4-0 in last 4 home games.
  • Over is 8-2 in last 10 overall.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • Bulls are 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Detroit.

SEASON SERIES

SEASON SERIES ->
22.12.19 DET CHI 107 : 119
21.11.19 CHI DET 109 : 89
02.11.19 CHI DET 112 : 106

PLAYER TRENDS

  • Derrick Rose has 24+ points in the Pistons’ last 3 games. (21.5)
  • Lauri Markkanen has 13 points or less in the Bulls’ last 3 games on the 2nd leg of a back-to-back. (16.5)
  • Zach LaVine has 33 points in the Bulls’ last 2 Saturday night games against the Pistons. (26.5)
  • Andre Drummond has 22+ points in 5 of his last 7 games at Little Caesars Arena. (21.5)

() = BOOKIE LINE

WIN/LOSS

TEAM W L HOME ROAD
CHI 13 26 7-14 6-12
DET 14 25 8-11 6-14

SEASON POINTS +/- 

TEAM PPG OPPG DIFF TOT. AV
CHI 105.8 107.9 -2.1 213.7
DET 108.5 111.2 -2.7 219.7

PICKS ATS

 Spread Points   Result
CHI OVER CHI
+3.5 217.0 108-99

THE RUB

The Bulls look to complete a season sweep of Detroit tonight, winning the first 3 games by an average of 12.7 ppg, including a 119-107 win in Detroit on Dec. 21.

The Bulls are in the midst of a 6-game losing streak after falling 116-105 to the visiting Pacers on Friday.

The Pistons have lost 10 of their last 13 games after a 115-112 overtime loss to the Cavaliers on Thursday in the opener of a 3-game homestand.

Bulls for the sweep, too many injuries for the Pistons to cover.

OUR PICK  – CHICAGO +3.5

LA LAKERS @ OKLAHOMA CITY

TEAM TRENDS

TEAM TRENDS ->

LAKERS TRENDS

  • 5-1 ATS in last 6 games playing on 0 days rest.
  • 3-7-1 ATS in last 11 games as a favorite.
  • 3-8-1 ATS in last 12 games overall.
  • 1-4 ATS in last 5 road games.
  • Under is 5-1 in last 6 vs teams above .500.
  • Under is 4-1 in last 5 overall.
  • Under is 18-6-3 in last 27 games playing on 0 days rest.
  • Under is 9-4 in last 13 after scoring 100+ points in their last game.

THUNDER TRENDS

  • 7-0 ATS in last 7 games following a ATS win.
  • 5-0 ATS in last 5 vs teams above .600.
  • 13-3 ATS in last 16 games playing on 1 days rest.
  • 4-1 ATS in last 5 home games.
  • 20-7 ATS in last 27 games overall.
  • Over is 6-1 in last 7 vs teams above .500.
  • Under is 7-2 in last 9 overall.
  • Under is 13-4 in last 17 games as a home underdog.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • Lakers are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
  • Lakers are 6-18 ATS in the last 24 meetings in Oklahoma City.
  • Under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Oklahoma City.

SEASON SERIES

SEASON SERIES ->
23.11.19 OKC LAL 127 : 130
20.11.19 LAL OKC 112 : 107

PLAYER TRENDS

  • Danilo Gallinari has 18+ points in his last 7 games at Chesapeake Energy Arena. (17.5)
  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has 20+ points in the Thunder’s last 4 games against teams on the 2nd leg of a back-to-back. (19.5)
  • Chris Paul has 9+ assists in 4 of his last 5 games against the Lakers. (7.5)

() = BOOKIE LINE

WIN/LOSS

TEAM W L HOME ROAD
LAL 31 7 15-4 16-3
OKC 22 16 13-6 9-10

SEASON POINTS +/- 

TEAM PPG OPPG DIFF TOT. AV
LAL 113.2 105.1 +8.1 218.3
OKC 108.9 106.9 +2.0 215.8

PICKS ATS

 Spread Points   Result
OKC OVER LAL
+1.0 213.5 125-110

THE RUB

The Thunder have won 11 of 13 games after easily beating the Rockets on Thursday while the Lakers owns the best record in the West. This will be interesting…

LA may be without Anthony Davis (gluteus maximus) for the 2nd straight game but the they played well without him Friday, notching a 129-114 road win over the Mavericks for their 7th straight win.

Like Overs tonight.

OUR PICK  – OVER 213.5

PHILADELPHIA @ DALLAS

TEAM TRENDS

TEAM TRENDS ->

76ERS TRENDS

  • 1-3-1 ATS in last 5 games as a road underdog.
  • 1-4-1 ATS in last 6 games overall.
  • 0-3-1 ATS in last 4 road games.
  • Under is 8-3 in last 11 road games.
  • Under is 10-4 in last 14 vs teams above .500.

MAVERICKS TRENDS

  • 1-5 ATS in last 6 vs teams above .500.
  • 0-3-1 ATS in last 4 games overall.
  • 0-4 ATS in last 4 vs teams above .600.
  • 0-3-1 ATS in last 4 home games.
  • Over is 4-1 in last 5 overall.
  • Under is 4-1 in last 5 vs teams above .600.
  • Over is 4-1 in last 5 home games.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • 76ers are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
  • 76ers are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Dallas.
  • Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Dallas.

SEASON SERIES

SEASON SERIES ->
21.12.19 PHI DAL 98 : 117

PLAYER TRENDS

  • Luka Doncic has 31+ points in the Mavericks’ last 3 games against Eastern Conference teams. (30.5)
  • Tim Hardaway Jr. has 27 points in his last 2 games against the 76ers. (15.5)

() = BOOKIE LINE

WIN/LOSS

TEAM W L HOME ROAD
PHI 25 14 18-2 7-12
DAL 23 15 11-10 12-5

SEASON POINTS +/- 

TEAM PPG OPPG DIFF TOT. AV
PHI 109.8 105.7 +4.1 215.5
DAL 116.3 109.7 +6.6 226.0

PICKS ATS

 Spread Points   Result
PHI UNDER DAL
+2.0 223.5 109-91

THE RUB

Dallas have lost 4 of 6 since Porzingis (knee) went down and the former 4th-overall draft pick will miss tonight, but could return as early as next week. Dallas are now 7-9 going back to Dec. 8.

Dallas has failed to cover 5 of its last 6 overall and will be a step slower than the rested 76ers.

Unders best.

OUR PICK  – UNDER 223.5

CLEVELAND @ DENVER

TEAM TRENDS

TEAM TRENDS ->

CAVALIERS TRENDS

  • 3-8 ATS in last 11 vs teams above .600.
  • 1-4 ATS in last 5 vs teams above .500.
  • 7-19-1 ATS in last 27 road games vs teams with a home winning % over .600.
  • Over is 5-0 in last 5 overall.
  • Over is 11-3 in last 14 road games vs teams with a home winning % over .600.
  • Over is 9-3 in last 12 road games.
  • Under is 6-2 in last 8 vs teams above .500.

NUGGETS TRENDS

  • 1-6-1 ATS in last 8 vs teams below .400.
  • 0-4-2 ATS in last 6 home games.
  • Over is 4-0 in last 4 vs teams below .400.
  • Over is 6-1 in last 7 overall.
  • Under is 5-2 in last 7 vs teams below .500.
  • Over is 5-2 in last 7 home games.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • Cavaliers are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
  • Cavaliers are 5-2-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Denver.
  • Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.

PLAYER TRENDS

  • Nikola Jokic has 10+ assists in the Nuggets’ last 4 Saturday games at Pepsi Center. (6.5)
  • Gary Harris has 14+ points in 5 of the Nuggets’ last 6 games against the Cavaliers. (11.5)
  • Tristan Thompson has 14+ rebounds in his last 3 games against Western Conference teams. (11.5)
  • Jamal Murray has 15 points or less in 6 of the Nuggets’ last 8 home games. (18.5)

() = BOOKIE LINE

WIN/LOSS

TEAM W L HOME ROAD
CLE 11 27 6-14 5-13
DEN 26 11 15-4 11-7

SEASON POINTS +/- 

TEAM PPG OPPG DIFF TOT. AV
CLE 104.9 113.6 -8.7 218.5
DEN 109.1 105.2 +3.9 214.3

PICKS ATS

 Spread Points   Result
DEN OVER CLE
-12.5 215.0 111-103

THE RUB

The Cavaliers ended a 5-game losing streak at Detroit on Thursday night,  and now sit at 11-27.

The Nuggets are 7-1 straight up in their last 8 at home and 12-3 straight up in their last 15 games.

Tough one to pick at the 12.5 spread. Overs best.

OUR PICK  – OVER 215.0

MILWAUKEE @ PORTLAND

TEAM TRENDS

TEAM TRENDS ->

BUCKS TRENDS

  • 4-0 ATS in last 4 games playing on 0 days rest.
  • 5-1 ATS in last 6 road games vs teams with a losing home record.
  • 1-4 ATS in last 5 games overall.
  • 1-4 ATS in last 5 games as a favorite.
  • Under is 4-1 in last 5 vs teams below .500.
  • Under is 13-6 in last 19 road games vs teams with a losing home record.

TRAIL BLAZERS TRENDS

  • 2-7-1 ATS in last 10 games overall.
  • 1-6 ATS in last 7 games as an underdog.
  • 0-3-1 ATS in last 4 home games.
  • Under is 4-1 in last 5 overall.
  • Over is 30-12-1 in last 43 home games.
  • Over is 7-3 in last 10 vs teams above .600.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • Bucks are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Portland.
  • Bucks are 12-4-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings.
  • Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Portland.

SEASON SERIES

SEASON SERIES ->
22.11.19 MIL POR 137 : 129

PLAYER TRENDS

  • Damian Lillard has 28+ points in the Blazers’ last 8 games as home underdogs. (26.5)
  • Giannis Antetokounmpo has 23 points or less in the Bucks’ last 6 road games against the Blazers. (30.5)
  • Khris Middleton has 21+ points in the Bucks’ last 4 road games against the Blazers. (19.5)

() = BOOKIE LINE

WIN/LOSS

TEAM W L HOME ROAD
MIL 34 6 18-2 16-4
POR 16 23 8-9 8-14

SEASON POINTS +/- 

TEAM PPG OPPG DIFF TOT. AV
MIL 119.1 107.1 12 226.2
POR 111.7 113.6 -1.9 225.3

PICKS ATS

 Spread Points   Result
MIL OVER MIL
-5.5 227.0 122-101

THE RUB

Portland has dropped seven of its past nine games and lacked vigor during Thursday’s 116-102 loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves in the finale of a five-game road trip.

Antetokounmpo tallied just 13 points and took only nine shots (making four) during Friday’s 127-106 road victory over the Sacramento Kings.

The Trail Blazers are experiencing a dismal stretch in which they have lost seven of their past nine games.

Portland just completed a 2-3 road trip with a 116-102 loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves on Thursday.

Blazers have burnt us too many times over the last fortnight.

The last outing was a points fest with a 137-129 Milwaukee win.

OUR PICK  – MILWAUKEE WIN & OVER 227.0

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