Betting on the over/under total points in NFL games can be a profitable NFL betting strategy if thought about with careful analysis and strategic thinking.
NFL Total Points Betting Tips
Here are some tips for punters to think about when betting on the Over/Under total Points in NFL.
1. Understand Team Offense and Defense
Before placing a bet, analyze the offensive and defensive strengths and weaknesses of both teams. High-scoring teams with strong offenses and weak defenses are more likely to push games towards the over, while teams with solid defenses and weaker offenses might lead to games going under.
Pay attention to the average points scored and allowed per game by each team.
Example: In the 2023 NFL season, the Kansas City Chiefs and the Detroit Lions both had high-scoring offenses but weaker defenses. A matchup between these teams would likely push the total points towards the over, given their propensity to score and concede a lot of points.
2. Consider the Matchup
Certain matchups naturally lead to higher or lower scoring games. Divisional games, for instance, often result in lower scores due to the familiarity and rivalry between teams.
Also, non-conference games can sometimes be higher scoring.
Examine past matchups and how the teams have performed against each other historically.
Example: The Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens have a longstanding rivalry and familiarity, often resulting in low-scoring games. Their matchups typically lean towards the under due to strong defenses and conservative game plans.
3. Weather Conditions
Weather can greatly impact total points scored in a game.
Rain, snow, and high winds can make passing difficult and lead to lower scoring games. On the other hand, clear weather conditions are more likely to produce higher scores.
Always check the weather forecast before placing your bet.
Example: The Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens have a longstanding rivalry and familiarity, often resulting in low-scoring games. Their matchups typically lean towards the under due to strong defenses and conservative game plans.
4. Injuries
Injuries to key players, especially quarterbacks and star offensive players, can affect a team’s scoring ability. Similarly, injuries to defensive stalwarts can lead to higher scoring games.
Monitor injury reports and consider how the absence of crucial players might impact the total points.
Example: If a star quarterback like Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs is ruled out due to injury, it could lower the team’s scoring potential. In such a scenario, betting the under might be a prudent choice.
5. Pace of Play
Some teams play at a faster pace, leading to more plays and higher scores, while others utilize a slower, more measured gameplan, which can reduce the total number of points scored.
Analyze each team’s pace of play and how it might affect the game’s total points.
Example: The Arizona Cardinals under head coach Kliff Kingsbury often played at one of the fastest paces in the league, resulting in more plays and higher-scoring games. Conversely, the New England Patriots, known for their methodical approach, often had lower-scoring games.
6. Coaching Strategies
Coaching strategies play a critical role in determining how a game unfolds.
Some coaches are more conservative, focusing on ball control and defense, while others are aggressive, leaning towards high-scoring offenses.
Understanding the coaching style can provide insights into whether a game is likely to go over or under the total points line.
Example: The Los Angeles Rams under head coach Sean McVay were known for their aggressive offensive strategies, leading to higher-scoring games. In contrast, the New York Giants under Joe Judge focused on a conservative, defense-first approach, often resulting in lower-scoring affairs.
7. Betting Trends and Public Perception
Public betting trends can influence the over/under line set by bookmakers.
If the public heavily favors the over, the line might be inflated, giving value in betting the under. On the other hand, if there’s a consensus on the game being low scoring, betting the over might offer value.
Keep an eye on line movements and where the majority of bets are being placed.
Example: During the 2023 season, a game between the Dallas Cowboys and Tampa Bay Buccaneers saw heavy public betting on the over due to the presence of star quarterbacks Dak Prescott and Tom Brady. This inflated the line, making the under a value bet if the defenses were underestimated.
8. Recent Performance
Recent performance trends can provide valuable insights. If a team has been involved in several high-scoring games in a row, the over/under line might adjust.
However, a regression to the mean is possible, making it crucial to assess whether the recent performance is sustainable.
Example: The Buffalo Bills had a streak of high-scoring games in late 2023, pushing their over/under lines higher. However, after a few underwhelming offensive performances, betting the under became more appealing as the market adjusted slowly to their recent downturn.
9. Special Teams Impact
Special teams can add to the total points through field goals, return touchdowns, and field position battles.
Teams with strong special teams units can add unexpected points to the total score, influencing the over/under outcome.
Example: The New Orleans Saints had a standout special teams unit in 2023, frequently contributing to scoring through return touchdowns and long field goals. This capability made their games more likely to hit the over.
10. Shop for the Best Line
Different sportsbooks might offer slightly different over/under lines.
Shopping around for the best line can provide an edge, especially in close games where a single point can make the difference. Use multiple sportsbooks to find the most favorable line before placing your bet.
Example: Suppose the over/under line for a game between the San Francisco 49ers and the Seattle Seahawks is set at 47.5 points at one sportsbook but 48.5 at another. If you believe the game will be close to this mark, betting the under at 48.5 or the over at 47.5 can provide a slight edge.
Betting On The Total Points In NFL
Betting on the over/under total points in NFL games requires a smart approach, taking into account factors such as team strengths, weather conditions, injuries, pace of play, coaching strategies, and betting trends.
By using strategy to monitor these elements and staying informed, you can boost your chances of making a winning bet.
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