Tonight’s NBA Computer Picks – Fri, 5th April

nba computer picks

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AI COMPUTER PICKS RECORD

ATS RECORD TOTAL PTS RECORD
W L W L
75 62 72 65
  • BEST BETS RECORD: 71-54

TOP 3 ROI TRENDS TONIGHT

1. Boston Celtics covering the 1H Spread in 56 of their last 79 games (+30.00 Units / 32% ROI).

  • This trend stands out as the most profitable, showcasing the Celtics’ strong performance in the first half of their games, leading to significant returns for bettors.

2. New Orleans Pelicans hitting the 1H Moneyline in 54 of their last 78 games (+29.70 Units / 21% ROI).

  • The Pelicans have shown a consistent ability to lead at halftime, making bets on their 1H Moneyline highly profitable over a large sample of games.

3. Miami Heat hitting the Moneyline in 28 of their last 49 away games (+26.05 Units / 39% ROI).

  • Despite being the road team, the Heat have managed to win outright in a significant number of games, offering a high ROI for moneyline bets on them.

ORLANDO @ CHARLOTTE

Over/Under Prediction: Under 206.5 Total Points

The Orlando Magic’s strong trend of hitting the 1Q Game Total Under in 50 of their last 78 games (+20.00 Units / 22% ROI) combined with the Charlotte Hornets’ propensity for hitting the 1H Game Total Under in 50 of their last 78 games (+17.90 Units / 20% ROI) suggests a pattern conducive to an Under outcome.

Both teams have exhibited trends towards lower-scoring games, with the Magic’s last 4 games as favorites going Under and the Hornets’ recent history of struggling in the first half, losing it in their last 10 games. These trends indicate that the total set at 206.5 points might lean towards the Under.

ATS Prediction: Orlando Magic -11.5

Orlando’s record of covering the Spread in 49 of their last 76 games (+19.30 Units / 23% ROI) and winning their last 11 games against teams below .500 highlights their strong performance against weaker teams.

The Magic’s recent dominance as favorites against the Hornets, covering their last 8 games, underscores their ability to perform well against Charlotte. Coupled with Charlotte’s struggles, particularly in the first half of their recent games, Orlando is well-positioned to cover the -11.5 spread.

  • Best Pick: Under 206.5 Total Points

OKLAHOMA CITY @ INDIANA

Over/Under Prediction: Under 234.5 Total Points

The Indiana Pacers’ strong trend of hitting the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 41 games (+13.70 Units / 30% ROI) and their last 7 games as favorites trending Under in 6 instances, this matchup leans towards an Under outcome.

The Pacers’ efficiency in defensive quarters, particularly the 4Q Game Total Under in 36 of their last 51 games (+18.75 Units / 32% ROI), suggests a game that might not reach the high total set at 234.5 points. The Oklahoma City Thunder’s mixed results in quarter-specific totals further underscore the potential for a lower-scoring game than anticipated.

ATS Prediction: Indiana Pacers -5.5

The Pacers’ recent history of covering their last 6 games following a loss, combined with their strong record of winning 9 of their last 10 games as favorites against the Thunder, positions them well to cover the -5.5 spread.

Indiana’s ability to perform strongly after setbacks and their dominance over Oklahoma City in recent matchups provide a solid foundation for expecting them to cover the spread in this game.

  • Best Pick: Under 234.5 Total Points

PORTLAND @ WASHINGTON

Over/Under Prediction: Over 221.5 Total Points

The trend of 25 of the Washington Wizards’ last 35 home games against Western opponents going Over, combined with the Portland Trail Blazers’ tendency to hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 30 games (+8.55 Units / 25% ROI), suggests this matchup is likely to exceed the total set at 221.5 points.

The Blazers’ proficiency in hitting the 3Q Game Total Over in 18 of their last 24 games (+11.15 Units / 41% ROI) supports an expectation for a higher-scoring affair.

ATS Prediction: Portland Trail Blazers +2.5

Given the Blazers’ recent success on the road against the Wizards, winning their last 6 road games, and the road team covering 12 of the last 14 games between these two teams, Portland stands out as a strong candidate to cover the +2.5 spread.

The Blazers’ ability to perform in the clutch, as indicated by their success in covering the 4Q Spread in 25 of their last 39 away games (+9.95 Units / 22% ROI), further solidifies this pick.

  • Best Pick: Over 221.5 Total Points

SACRAMENTO @ BOSTON

Over/Under Prediction: Over 226.0 Total Points

Given the Celtics’ recent trend of Overs, with 7 of their last 8 games surpassing the total points line, and their potent offensive performance, especially in home games, there’s a strong indication that this matchup against the Kings could result in a high-scoring affair.

The Kings’ trend towards hitting the Game Total Under in away games (+9.50 Units / 20% ROI) might suggest a tendency for tighter defense on the road, but Boston’s overwhelming offensive power and their trend towards Overs in recent games make the Over 226.5 total points the more compelling pick.

ATS Prediction: Boston Celtics -9.0

The Celtics have shown a strong ability to cover spreads, especially in home games, as evidenced by their 11-game winning streak at home. With their exceptional performance in the first half, having covered the 1H Spread in 56 of their last 79 games (+30.00 Units / 32% ROI), Boston is well-positioned to establish an early lead and maintain it against Sacramento.

The Celtics’ success against Western opponents, covering their last 6 games, the Celtics at -10.5 is a solid bet.

  • Best Pick: Boston Celtics -10.5

NEW YORK @ CHICAGO

Over/Under Prediction: Under 212.5 Total Points

Considering the New York Knicks’ strong trend towards hitting the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 51 games (+15.30 Units / 27% ROI) and their emphasis on defense, particularly in the first half, this matchup leans towards a lower-scoring affair.

Despite recent games going Over for the Knicks, their overall season trends suggest a propensity for tighter, lower-scoring games. The Bulls’ recent history, including a focus on the 2Q Game Total Under at home (+13.30 Units / 29% ROI), supports the potential for this game not to exceed the set total, making Under 212.5 a compelling pick.

ATS Prediction: New York Knicks +1.5

The Knicks have shown resilience on the road, especially against Eastern opponents below .500, winning their last 10 such matchups. With their ability to cover spreads in these scenarios, evidenced by covering 4 of their last 5 road games against the Bulls, New York stands out as a strong candidate to at least cover, if not win outright.

Their recent momentum and ability to control the pace of the game further bolster the case for the Knicks at +1.5.

  • Best Pick: New York Knicks +1.5

MIAMI @ HOUSTON

Over/Under Prediction: Under 215.5 Total Points

Given the Miami Heat’s strong trend towards hitting the Game Total Under in 54 of their last 85 games (+19.90 Units / 21% ROI), coupled with their performance in the 4th quarter, consistently staying under the total in 32 of their last 46 games (+16.95 Units / 32% ROI), this matchup leans towards a lower-scoring outcome.

The Heat’s emphasis on defense, especially when playing away and on the second leg of a back-to-back, where the last 6 games have gone under, reinforces the potential for this game to stay under the total set at 214.5 points.

ATS Prediction: Miami Heat -3.0

The Miami Heat’s recent record of winning their last 7 games against the Houston Rockets, along with their ability to bounce back from losses, covering their last 4 games following a defeat, positions them well to cover the -2.5 spread.

Their success on the road, winning 28 of their last 49 away games (+26.05 Units / 39% ROI), further supports their potential to overcome the Rockets, especially with Houston’s mixed results at home despite some strong performances in the 1st quarter.

  • Best Pick: Under 215.5 Total Points

DETROIT @ MEMPHIS

Over/Under Prediction: Under 212.5 Total Points

The under seems likely here, supported by the Memphis Grizzlies’ strong trend of hitting the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 38 home games (+10.70 Units / 26% ROI) and the Detroit Pistons’ recent tendency to also favor the under, achieving it in 23 of their last 34 games (+10.90 Units / 29% ROI).

The Grizzlies’ defensive strengths, as shown by their performance in hitting the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 39 home games (+15.50 Units / 35% ROI), combined with the Pistons’ effectiveness in 4th quarter unders (18 of their last 24 games), suggest a game that might struggle to surpass the relatively low total of 209.5 points, especially considering the Grizzlies’ history of unders in home games against the Pistons.

ATS Prediction: Memphis Grizzlies -1.0

The Memphis Grizzlies’ success at home against the Pistons, covering their last 4 games on the first leg of a back-to-back against Detroit, along with their strong record of winning the first half in 10 of their last 11 home games against Detroit, positions them well to cover the spread of -1.5.

Memphis’s ability to control games early, coupled with Detroit’s struggle against Western opponents—losing their last 7 games—further tilts the advantage towards the Grizzlies covering the spread.

  • Best Pick: Under 212.5 Total Points

TORONTO @ MILWAUKEE

Over/Under Prediction: Over 228.5 Total Points

Considering the Toronto Raptors’ propensity for hitting the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 35 away games (+11.90 Units / 31% ROI) alongside their recent streak of games going over, it leans towards a higher-scoring affair.

Although the Milwaukee Bucks have shown a tendency towards the Under in some of their recent trends, the Raptors’ offensive performances in away games suggest they can contribute significantly to the total score surpassing 225.5 points, especially given the Raptors’ last 4 games have all gone over.

ATS Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks -14.5

Despite the large spread, Milwaukee’s consistent performance, especially at home where they’ve covered the 1Q Spread in 19 of their last 29 games (+8.70 Units / 26% ROI), suggests they can cover -16.5 against a struggling Raptors team that has failed to cover their last 8 games against teams above .500.

The Raptors’ current 15-game losing streak also undermines their potential to keep the game close, making the Bucks likely to cover the spread.

  • Best Pick: Over 228.5 Total Points

SAN ANTONIO @ NEW ORLEANS

Over/Under Prediction: Under 219.0 Total Points

Given the San Antonio Spurs’ successful trend of hitting the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 45 games (+11.50 Units / 23% ROI) and their last 7 games against Southwest opponents going under, this matchup is leaning towards an under outcome.

Additionally, the New Orleans Pelicans’ own pattern of hitting the 2Q Game Total Under in 40 of their last 63 games (+13.65 Units / 19% ROI) supports the likelihood of a lower-scoring affair, further suggesting the total may not surpass 219.5 points.

ATS Prediction: New Orleans Pelicans -10.5

The Pelicans have a strong ATS trend, having covered the 1H Spread in 48 of their last 78 games (+15.35 Units / 17% ROI), and they’ve dominated the Spurs in recent matchups with 8 consecutive wins.

Seeing the Spurs’ success in covering their last 6 road games against teams above .500, they’ve been competitive, but the Pelicans’ strong performance in early parts of the game, as shown by their success in 1Q Moneyline and Spread bets, suggests they have the edge to cover -10.5.

  • Best Pick: Under 219.0 Total Points

GOLDEN STATE @ DALLAS

Over/Under Prediction: Under 222.5 Total Points

The Dallas Mavericks have a strong trend towards the under, having hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 51 games (+15.30 Units / 27% ROI). Additionally, 9 of the Mavericks’ last 10 home games have gone under, suggesting a pattern of lower-scoring games at home.

Coupled with the Warriors’ varied performance but an inclination towards the under in several away game metrics, the under on a total of 227.5 seems the more likely outcome, especially considering the Mavs’ defensive capabilities at home.

ATS Prediction: Dallas Mavericks -1.5

While the Golden State Warriors have shown a recent uptick in performance, covering 5 of their last 6 games on the second leg of a back-to-back, the Mavs have been strong ATS, covering the spread in 20 of their last 27 games (+12.30 Units / 42% ROI).

The Mavs’ recent form, particularly at home, suggests they have the edge needed to cover the -5.5 spread, especially with their ability to control the pace and scoring of games.

  • Best Pick: Under 222.5 Total Points

MINNESOTA @ PHOENIX

Over/Under Prediction: Under 218.5 Total Points

Both teams show strong trends toward the under in various aspects of their games, with the Phoenix Suns hitting the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 56 games (+13.00 Units / 21% ROI) and 9 of their last 10 home games going under.

The Timberwolves also have a notable under trend in the 2Q Game Total Under in 33 of their last 50 games (+14.40 Units / 25% ROI). These patterns, combined with the Suns’ defensive prowess at home, suggest a lower-scoring game, making the under a compelling pick.

ATS Prediction: Phoenix Suns -3.5

The Phoenix Suns have a strong record against the Timberwolves, having won 8 of their last 9 matchups and covered their last 7 games against them.

Despite some recent struggles, Phoenix’s ability to perform well, particularly in the first half, where they have won the first half in 7 of their last 8 games, indicates they have the edge to cover the -3.5 spread against a Timberwolves team that, while competitive, has shown inconsistency on the road.

  • Best Pick: Under 218.5 Total Points

UTAH @ LA CLIPPERS

Over/Under Prediction: Over 223.5 Total Points

Given the Utah Jazz’s trend towards hitting the Over in a significant number of their games (43 of their last 78), combined with the LA Clippers’ recent run of Overs in their role as favorites (6 of their last 7 games), this matchup leans towards an Over outcome.

The Jazz’s offensive capabilities, especially in hitting the 3Q Game Total Over in 33 of their last 55 games, complemented by the Clippers’ high scoring in the 4th quarter (21 of their last 30 games), suggest that both teams are capable of pushing the total points above the set line.

ATS (Against The Spread) Prediction: LA Clippers -12.5

The Clippers’ robust performance as a favorite, despite not covering in their last 5 games on the second leg of a back-to-back, may raise some concerns. However, considering the Jazz’s struggle on the road against Western opponents above .500 (22 consecutive road losses), the Clippers stand a strong chance to cover the spread.

The Clippers’ ability to win outright in 40 of their last 58 games further supports this, indicating they often secure victories by significant margins.

  • Best Pick: Over 223.5 Total Points

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