NHL Computer Picks – Florida @ Edmonton – Game 4

June 15, 2024

*These NBA computer picks are done the morning of game day, adjust picks should spreads and lineups change.

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FLORIDA @ EDMONTON

NHL FINALS – GAME 4

FLORIDA LEAD 3-0

Over/Under Prediction: Under 5.5 Total Goals

Both teams have shown a strong trend towards lower-scoring games, making the under a compelling bet:

Florida Panthers’ Trends: They have consistently gone under the total goals line, achieving this in 55 of their last 87 games, reflecting a solid 26% ROI. Their performance in specific periods, like the 1st and 3rd, reinforces their capability to keep games low-scoring.
Edmonton Oilers’ Trends: Similarly, the Oilers have seen the game total go under in 45 of their last 79 games, with a 14% ROI. This consistent under-scoring at home suggests a defensive approach or difficulties in breaking down opponents’ defenses.

These trends suggest that a total set at 5.5 is likely to go under, given both teams’ recent histories and statistical backing from their performances.

ATS Pick: Edmonton Oilers +1.5

Given the recent performance and specific situational strengths of each team, the spread prediction leans slightly towards Edmonton:

Florida Panthers’ Strength: While Florida has a strong record of covering the puck line away from home, their general performance against Edmonton, where they have won the first period in recent games, suggests early game strength but does not dismiss the resilience of the Oilers over the full game.
Edmonton Oilers’ Strength: Edmonton has a respectable record covering the puck line at home, including the 3rd period puck line and 2nd period moneyline. This ability to perform in later periods can be crucial in close games, making them a good candidate to cover +1.5, especially considering Florida’s occasional struggles in the latter periods.