NFL – Sunday Free Picks – Week 5

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*These free NFL picks and NFL player prop picks are done the previous game day, adjust selections should spreads and lineups change.

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SUNDAY NFL PARLAY

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NEW YORK JETS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Sunday, October 6th

TEAM TRENDS

• The Vikings have scored first in their last 3 games.
• The Vikings have won each of their last 4 games.
• 5 of the Vikings’ last 6 games vs AFC opponents have gone Unders.

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/-

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BEST ROI PICKS

1. Vikings Moneyline – Hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 21 games (+10.85 Units / 45% ROI)
2. Vikings 4Q Game Total Under (Home Games) – Hit the 4Q Game Total Under in their last 8 home games (+8.00 Units / 83% ROI)
3. Jets 4Q Game Total Under – Hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games (+4.75 Units / 22% ROI)

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MATCH PREVIEW

The NFL heads to London as the New York Jets face the Minnesota Vikings at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Sunday.

The Vikings are riding high after a 31-29 upset win over the Packers at Lambeau Field. Minnesota stormed out to a 28-0 lead, thanks to a defense that forced four Green Bay turnovers, and are now the NFC’s only unbeaten team.

The Jets come off a disappointing 10-9 home loss to the Broncos, where their offense struggled, particularly Breece Hall who managed only four yards on 10 carries.

Despite their offensive woes, the Jets had a chance to win, but Greg Zuerlein missed a last-minute 50-yard field goal. The teams last met in 2022, with the Vikings winning 27-22, though Jets receiver Garrett Wilson shone with 162 yards on eight catches.

PICK – MINNESOTA -2.5

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CAROLINA PANTHERS @ CHICAGO BEARS

Sunday, October 6th

TEAM TRENDS

• The Bears have won the 1st quarter in 7 of their last 8 games vs the Panthers.
• In 11 of the Panthers’ last 12 games, their opponents have scored first.
• The Bears have scored last in the Panthers’ last 7 games.
• The Bears’ D/ST has a TD in 3 of their last 6 games vs the Panthers.
• The Bears have won each of their last 7 home games.
• 4 of the Bears’ last 5 games have gone unders.

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/-

PICKS ATS

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BEST ROI PICKS 

1. Panthers 3Q Spread – Covered the 3Q Spread in 13 of their last 18 games (+6.40 Units / 27% ROI)
2. Panthers 3Q Game Total Under – Hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.05 Units / 23% ROI)
3. Bears Spread – Covered the Spread in 14 of their last 22 games (+8.65 Units / 36% ROI)

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MATCH PREVIEW

The Panthers and Bears are forever linked by their 2023 pre-draft trade that brought Caleb Williams to Illinois take the field at Soldier Field on Sunday afternoon.

The Bears are coming off a 24-18 win over the Rams, fueled by a huge game from D’Andre Swift, who bounced back from a slow start to the season with 165 total yards and a touchdown.

Caleb Williams also showed growth, completing 17 of 23 passes with a TD and no turnovers. The Bears have been dominant at home, winning seven straight at Soldier Field, including a 16-13 win over Carolina last season.

The Panthers fell 34-24 to the Bengals last week, dropping their second straight game. Carolina’s defense took another hit, losing linebacker Shaq Thompson to a season-ending Achilles injury, following the earlier loss of star defensive tackle Derrick Brown. With injuries piling up, the Panthers will need to find answers quickly to turn their season around.

PICK – OVER 41.0 TOTAL POINTS

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BALTIMORE RAVENS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS

Sunday, October 6th

TEAM TRENDS

• The Bengals have lost 4 of their last 5 games vs AFC opponents.
• The last 4 games between the Ravens and Bengals have gone overs.
• The Ravens have scored first in each of their last 4 games.
• The Bengals’ D/ST has a TD in 3 of their last 4 games vs the Ravens.

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/-

PICKS ATS

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BEST ROI PICKS 

1. Ravens 2H Moneyline – Hit the 2H Moneyline in 10 of their last 13 games (+8.00 Units / 37% ROI)
2. Ravens 3Q Game Total Under – Hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.25 Units / 31% ROI)
3. Bengals 1H Game Total Over – Hit the 1H Game Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.20 Units / 26% ROI)

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MATCH PREVIEW

Division rivals the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals will meet at Paycor Stadium.

The Bengals come into the game riding their first win of the season, a 34-24 victory over the Panthers at Bank of America Stadium. Joe Burrow led Cincinnati with two passing touchdowns, including a 63-yard strike to Ja’Marr Chase, who seems to be finding his form again. The win snapped the Bengals’ 0-3 start and was a crucial early-season win for the team.

The Ravens were great in Week 4, steamrolling the Bills 35-10 at M&T Bank Stadium. Derrick Henry powered Baltimore’s offense with 199 rushing yards and two touchdowns, adding to the team’s 271 total rushing yards.

These teams met twice last season, with Baltimore winning both matchups: 27-24 at Paycor Stadium in Week 2 and 34-20 at home in Week 11.

PICK – OVER 48.5 TOTAL POINTS

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MIAMI DOLPHINS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Sunday, October 6th

TEAM TRENDS

• The Patriots have scored first in the Dolphins’ last 5 games.
• The Patriots have lost the first half in 7 of their last 8 games.
• The Dolphins have covered in their last 7 games vs the Patriots.
• The last 4 games between AFC East teams have gone unders.

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/-

PICKS ATS

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BEST ROI PICKS

1. Dolphins 2Q Game Total Over – Hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.20 Units / 35% ROI)
2. Dolphins 1H Game Total Over – Hit the 1H Game Total Over in 13 of their last 21 games (+5.15 Units / 22% ROI)
3. Patriots 4Q Game Total Under – Hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+8.35 Units / 40% ROI)

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MATCH PREVIEW

Both holding a 1-3 record in 2024, division rivals the Dolphins and Patriots will clash at Gillette Stadium on Sunday afternoon, hoping to turn their seasons around.

The Patriots are coming off a 30-13 loss to the 49ers in Week 4, where they struggled offensively, totaling just 216 yards. Jacoby Brissett threw two costly turnovers, including a pick-six, and New England’s struggles at home continued with a 1-8 record over their last nine games at Gillette Stadium.

The Dolphins also suffered a setback with a 31-12 loss to the Titans at home.

The absence of Tua Tagovailoa has impacted their offense, and backup QB Tyler Huntley, who will start again on Sunday, struggled in his first start. Miami will aim to continue their recent success against the Patriots as they seek to bounce back on the road.

PICK – MIAMI +1.0

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CLEVELAND BROWNS @ WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

Sunday, October 6th

TEAM TRENDS

• The Commanders’ opponents have scored first in 10 of their last 11 games.
• The Browns have scored last in their last 4 games.
• The first score has been a Browns TD in their last 3 games.
• The Commanders have failed to cover in 7 of their last 8 games as favs.
• 10 of the Browns’ last 12 road games have gone overs.

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/-

PICKS ATS

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BEST ROI PICKS

1. Browns 1Q Game Total Over – Hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 22 games (+9.60 Units / 37% ROI)
2. Browns 1H Game Total Over – Hit the 1H Game Total Over in 16 of their last 22 games (+9.35 Units / 38% ROI)
3. Commanders 3Q Spread – Covered the 3Q Spread in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.95 Units / 37% ROI)

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MATCH PREVIEW

Riding a three-game winning streak, the Commanders will host the Browns at Northwest Stadium on Sunday afternoon.

The Commanders are fresh off a big 42-14 road win over the Cardinals, marking their largest win and equal-highest point total since 2015. Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels impressed, completing 26 of 30 passes for 233 yards, one touchdown, and an interception, while also rushing for 47 yards and a score. Daniels has been highly efficient, with an 82.1% completion rate through four weeks.

The Browns suffered a 20-16 road loss to the Raiders in Week 4. Despite scoring the first 10 points, Cleveland gave up 20 unanswered, and a late fourth-down sack of Deshaun Watson inside the Raiders’ 10-yard line sealed their fate.

Cleveland’s offense has struggled, failing to score more than 18 points in a game this season, which could be a concern against Washington’s high-powered, third-ranked scoring offense.

PICK – WASHINGTON -3.0

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INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Sunday, October 6th

TEAM TRENDS

• The first score has been a Jaguars TD in 4 of the last 5 games vs the Colts.
• The Jaguars have won the 1st half in each of their last 5 games vs the Colts.
• The Jaguars have covered in 8 of their last 9 games vs the Colts.
• 6 of the Jaguars’ last 8 games have gone unders.

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/-

PICKS ATS

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BEST ROI PICKS

1. Colts 1Q Game Total Over – Hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 15 of their last 21 games (+9.05 Units / 38% ROI)
2. Colts 4Q Game Total Under (Away Games) – Hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 away games (+4.80 Units / 59% ROI)
3. Jaguars 3Q Spread – Covered the 3Q Spread in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.75 Units / 36% ROI)

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MATCH PREVIEW

The Jaguars, the NFL’s only winless team, host the Colts at EverBank Stadium on Sunday afternoon in a divisional matchup.

Last week, the Jaguars were oh-so close to their first win of the season but fell 24-20 to the Texans after C.J. Stroud threw a game-winning touchdown with just 18 seconds left.

Jacksonville has now lost nine of its last 10 games dating back to Week 13 of last season, raising eyebrows about former first-overall pick Trevor Lawrence’s future as the team’s franchise quarterback.

The Colts had a 27-24 win over the Steelers in Week 4, with veteran quarterback Joe Flacco stepping in for the injured Anthony Richardson.

Flacco threw two touchdown passes to lead Indianapolis to victory. Richardson is listed as day-to-day, and the Colts might also be without star running back Jonathan Taylor, who is doubtful due to a high-ankle sprain.

PICK – OVER 46.0 TOTAL POINTS

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BUFFALO BILLS @ HOUSTON TEXANS

Sunday, October 6th

TEAM TRENDS

• Four of the Bills’ last 5 road games have gone unders.
• The Bills have scored first in 4 of their last 5 games vs the Texans.
• The Texans have failed to cover their last 5 games.

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/-

PICKS ATS

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BEST ROI PICKS

1. Bills 2Q Game Total Over – Hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 15 of their last 20 games (+10.30 Units / 44% ROI)
2. Bills 3Q Moneyline – Hit the 3Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 20 games (+8.35 Units / 24% ROI)
3. Texans 2Q Moneyline – Hit the 2Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+8.30 Units / 32% ROI)

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MATCH PREVIEW

Buffalo and Houston, both leading their divisions through four weeks, are set to face off at NRG Stadium on Sunday afternoon.

The Bills are looking to bounce back after a 35-10 blowout loss to the Ravens, their worst defeat since Week 11, 2021. Buffalo’s defense was gashed for 271 rushing yards, the most they’ve allowed since 2018, as they fell to 3-1 on the season. The Bills will aim to shore up their run defense against a Texans team that has shown offensive potential.

The Texans, also 3-1, are coming off a 24-20 win over the Jaguars, led by C.J. Stroud’s game-winning drive. Wide receiver Nico Collins was big in the win with 151 yards and a touchdown on 12 receptions, and currently leads the NFL in receiving yards.

Despite their nice start, Houston has yet to convince us in 2024, making this matchup against the powerhouse Bills a prime opportunity to solidify their standing in the AFC.

PICK – BUFFALO -1.0

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LAS VEGAS RAIDERS @ DENVER BRONCOS

Sunday, October 6th

TEAM TRENDS

• 5 of the Broncos’ last 6 games vs AFC West opponents have gone unders.
• The Broncos have won the 1st quarter in 8 of their last 9 home games.
• The Broncos have scored first in their last 5 games as favs.
• The Raiders have scored last in 8 of their last 9 games vs the Broncos.
• The Raiders have covered in 4 of their last 5 road games.

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/-

PICKS ATS

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BEST ROI PICKS

1. Raiders 1H Spread – Covered the 1H Spread in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.05 Units / 26% ROI)
2. Broncos 1Q Spread – Covered the 1Q Spread in 17 of their last 21 games (+11.90 Units / 48% ROI)
3. Broncos 1Q Moneyline – Hit the 1Q Moneyline in 13 of their last 21 games (+9.90 Units / 38% ROI)

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MATCH PREVIEW

Both sitting at 2-2, the Raiders and Broncos square up at Empower Field at Mile High on Sunday afternoon in hopes of gaining an edge in the AFC West.

The Broncos are coming off a low-scoring 10-9 road win over the Jets, marking their lowest-scoring win since 2006. Rookie quarterback Bo Nix threw his first NFL touchdown in the win, but Denver’s defense stole the show, limiting Breece Hall to just four rushing yards on 10 carries.

The Raiders also secured a tight win last week, defeating the Browns 20-16 at home. Las Vegas’ defense made a stand, sacking Deshaun Watson on Cleveland’s final drive to preserve the win.

The Raiders head into this matchup with a psychological advantage, having won 8-straight against their divisional rivals.

PICK – UNDER 35.5 TOTAL POINTS

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ARIZONA CARDINALS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Sunday, October 6th

TEAM TRENDS

• The Cardinals have lost 8 of their last 9 games vs NFC West opponents.
• The 49ers have been the first to 20 points in their last 14 games vs NFC West opponents.
• The Cardinals have scored first in 6 of their last 7 games vs the 49ers.
• The 49ers have covered their last 4 games vs the Cardinals.

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/-

PICKS ATS

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BEST ROI PICKS

1. Cardinals 2H Moneyline – Hit the 2H Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games (+7.10 Units / 89% ROI)
2. 49ers 3Q Game Total Over – Hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+6.90 Units / 29% ROI)
3. 49ers 2H Game Total Over (Home Games) – Hit the 2H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 home games (+3.85 Units / 45% ROI)

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MATCH PREVIEW

NFC West rivals, the Cardinals and 49ers, will face-off at Levi’s Stadium on Sunday afternoon.

The 49ers are riding high after a 30-13 win over the Patriots, powered by Jordan Mason, who rushed for 123 yards and a touchdown. With Christian McCaffrey still sidelined, Mason has been a standout, ranking second in the NFL for rushing yards and three TDs this season.

The Cardinals are looking to bounce back after a tough 42-14 loss to the Commanders, their biggest defeat since 2018. Arizona has struggled on the road, holding a disappointing 2-11 record over their last 13 games away from home.

San Francisco has owned this rivalry recently, sweeping the Cardinals in each of the last two seasons.

PICK – OVER 49.5 TOTAL POINTS

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GREEN BAY PACKERS @ LOS ANGELES RAMS

Sunday, October 6th

TEAM TRENDS

• The Packers have scored first in their last 8 road games.
• The Packers have won the 1st half in their last 10 games vs the Rams.
• The Packers have covered in 6 of their last 8 games.
• The Packers have won 9 of their last 10 games vs the Rams.

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/-

PICKS ATS

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BEST ROI PICKS

1. Packers 4Q Game Total Under – Hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.40 Units / 35% ROI)
2. Packers 1Q Moneyline – Hit the 1Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+6.60 Units / 27% ROI)
3. Rams Moneyline (Home Games) – Hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 home games (+6.60 Units / 40% ROI)

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MATCH PREVIEW

Both coming off losses, the Packers and Rams will aim to rebound when they meet at SoFi Stadium.

The Rams lost 24-18 to the Bears at Soldier Field, leaving them winless on the road at 0-3. However, they are riding a five-game winning streak at home and will be looking to make the most of their long home stretch throughout October, a critical month for their season.

The Packers suffered a 31-29 home defeat to the Vikings. Despite trailing 28-0, Green Bay mounted a comeback, falling just short. Jordan Love threw for 389 yards and four touchdowns but was hampered by three interceptions. The Packers’ potent rushing attack, averaging 174.5 yards per game and 5.4 yards per carry, ranks among the league’s best—posing a serious challenge for a Rams defense that ranks dead last in stopping the run.

PICK – GREEN BAY -3.5

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NEW YORK GIANTS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Sunday, October 6th

TEAM TRENDS

• The Seahawks have won 6 of their last 7 games vs the Giants.
• The Seahawks have scored last in their last 8 games vs the Giants.
• Under 43.5 total points has hit in the Giants’ last 5 games.

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/-

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PICKS ATS

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BEST ROI PICKS

1. Giants 2Q Moneyline – Hit the 2Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 18 games (+7.85 Units / 43% ROI)
2. Giants 2H Moneyline – Hit the 2H Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 games (+5.70 Units / 57% ROI)
3. Seahawks Moneyline (Home Games) – Hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 home games (+5.00 Units / 25% ROI)

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MATCH PREVIEW

Both coming off losses, the Giants and Seahawks take the field at Lumen Field.

The Seahawks had their first defeat of the season in Week 4, falling 42-29 to the Lions at Ford Field. D.K. Metcalf continued his good form, recording seven catches for 104 yards, his third straight game with 100+ receiving yards. Kenneth Walker III also made an impact in his return, rushing for 80 yards and three TDs on just 12 carries.

The Giants lost 20-15 to the Cowboys at MetLife Stadium. Malik Nabers impressed with 12 catches for 115 yards, but the Giants’ running game struggled, managing just 26 yards on 24 carries. Adding to their woes, Nabers is currently in concussion protocol and could miss the upcoming game.

These teams last met in Week 4 of 2023, where the Seahawks secured a 24-3 win at MetLife Stadium.

PICK – UNDER 43.5 TOTAL POINTS

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DALLAS COWBOYS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Sunday, October 6th

TEAM TRENDS

• 5 of the Cowboys’ last 6 games have gone over the total points line.
• The Cowboys have covered their last 4 games when playing with a rest advantage.

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/-

PICKS ATS

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BEST ROI PICKS

1. Cowboys 1H Game Total Over – Hit the 1H Game Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+7.10 Units / 29% ROI)
2. Cowboys 1Q Spread – Covered the 1Q Spread in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.15 Units / 23% ROI)
3. Steelers 4Q Moneyline – Hit the 4Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 19 games (+6.40 Units / 27% ROI)

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MATCH PREVIEW

Meeting for the first time since Week 9 of 2020, the Cowboys and Steelers will clash at Acrisure Stadium on Sunday Night Football.

The Steelers are coming off a nailbiting 27-24 loss to the Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium, where they mounted a comeback from a 17-point deficit but fell short. Justin Fields had his best passing performance in a Steelers uniform, but it wasn’t enough to maintain their unbeaten streak.

The Cowboys had a 20-15 win over the Giants at MetLife Stadium in their Week 4 outing. CeeDee Lamb played a key role with seven catches for 98 yards and a touchdown, helping Dallas notch a much-needed win despite an unconvincing overall performance.

With the Steelers boasting an elite run defense, allowing just 86.8 yards per game, the Cowboys may be forced to rely on Dak Prescott and their passing game, given their struggles with a league-worst rushing attack.

PICK – PITTSBURGH -2.5