NFL – Sunday Football Picks – Week 11

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These free NFL expert picks and player prop picks are done the previous game day. Adjust selections should spreads and lineups change.

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ CHICAGO BEARS

Soldier Field, Chicago, IL

TEAM TRENDS

  • Underdogs have won the 1st quarter in the last 7 Packers vs. Bears games.
  • Packers have won their last 10 games vs. Bears.
  • 8 of Bears’ last 9 as underdogs have gone under.
  • Packers have scored first in their last 10 road games.
  • Packers have covered in their last 10 vs. Bears.

WIN/LOSS

TEAM W L HOME ROAD
GB 6 3 3-2 3-1
CHI 4 5 4-1 0-4

SEASON POINTS +/-

TEAM PPG OPPG DIFF TOT.AV.
GB 25.6 21.6 +4.0 47.2
CHI 19.4 18.6 +0.8 38.0

PICKS ATS

SPREAD POINTS RESULT
GB OVER BG
-4.5 40.5 20-19
NFL PLAYER PROP BETS - HERE

PLAYER TRENDS

  • Tucker Kraft has a TD in 4 of Packers’ last 5 as favs.
  • D.J. Moore has a TD in 4 of Bears’ last 5 home vs. NFC.
  • Josh Jacobs has a TD in 3 of Packers’ last 4 as favs.
  • Jayden Reed has a TD in 6 of his last 9 road games.
  • D’Andre Swift has a TD in 4 of Bears’ last 6 games.

MATCH PREVIEW

Meeting for the first time this season, the Packers and Bears face off at Soldier Field.

The Bears are coming off a 19-3 home loss to the Patriots, marking their lowest score since 2015. Chicago’s offensive line struggled mightily, allowing nine sacks on rookie QB Caleb Williams, and the team has gone 23 drives without a touchdown, leading to the firing of offensive coordinator Shane Waldron.

The Packers return from a bye week, aiming to rebound from a 24-14 loss to the Lions. Despite a solid 6-3 record, Green Bay is 0-2 in division play and must improve to stay competitive in the tight NFC North.

The Packers have swept the Bears for five straight seasons.

PICK – GREEN BAY -4.5

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JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ DETROIT LIONS

Ford Field, Detroit, MI

TEAM TRENDS

  • Lions have covered in 8 of their last 10 vs. AFC teams.
  • Lions have won their last 7 games.
  • 5 of Jaguars’ last 6 games have gone over.
  • Lions first to 15 points in each of their last 8 home games.

WIN/LOSS

TEAM W L HOME ROAD
JAX 2 8 2-3 0-5
DET 8 1 3-1 5-0

SEASON POINTS +/-

TEAM PPG OPPG DIFF TOT.AV.
JAX 20.2 26.4 -6.2 46.6
DET 31.6 19.0 +12.6 50.6

PICKS ATS

SPREAD POINTS RESULT
DET OVER DET
-13.5 46.5 52-6
NFL PLAYER PROP BETS - HERE

PLAYER TRENDS

  • Amon-Ra St. Brown has a TD in each of Lions’ last 7 games.
  • Jahmyr Gibbs has a TD in 7 of Lions’ last 8 home games.
  • David Montgomery has a TD in 9 of his last 10 home games.
  • Evan Engram has a TD in each of his last 3 vs. Lions.

MATCH PREVIEW

Winning streak meets losing streak as the Lions host the Jaguars at Ford Field.

The Lions pulled off a dramatic comeback in their last game, erasing a 16-point third-quarter deficit to beat the Texans 26-23. Despite Jared Goff throwing five interceptions, Detroit held firm, and Jake Bates secured the win with a 52-yard field goal as time expired, extending the Lions’ winning streak to an NFC-best seven games.

The Jaguars fell 12-7 to the Vikings, struggling offensively with Mac Jones under center for the injured Trevor Lawrence, managing only 111 passing yards. Lawrence remains sidelined.

The Lions have won four straight against Jacksonville, including a 40-14 victory in Week 13, 2022.

PICK – OVER 46.5 TOTAL POINTS

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MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ TENNESSEE TITANS

Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN

TEAM TRENDS

  • 10 of Vikings’ last 12 as favs have gone under.
  • Titans have lost 4 of their last 5 games.
  • Vikings first to 10 points in each of their last 9 games.
  • Titans have failed to cover in 8 of their last 9 games.

WIN/LOSS

TEAM W L HOME ROAD
MIN 7 2 4-1 3-1
TEN 2 7 1-3 1-4

SEASON POINTS +/-

TEAM PPG OPPG DIFF TOT.AV.
MIN 24.6 17.4 +7.2 42.0
TEN 17.4 26.7 -9.3 44.1

PICKS ATS

SPREAD POINTS RESULT
MIN UNDER MIN
-5.5 39.5 23-13
NFL PLAYER PROP BETS - HERE

PLAYER TRENDS

  • Justin Jefferson has a TD in 3 of Vikings’ last 4 Sunday road games.
  • Calvin Ridley has a TD in each of his last 2 vs. Vikings.

MATCH PREVIEW

Meeting for the first time since Week 3, 2020, the Vikings and Titans clash at Nissan Stadium.

The Titans are coming off a 27-17 loss to the Chargers, but Will Levis shined in his return from injury, completing 18 of 23 passes for 175 yards and two touchdowns without a turnover—his first turnover-free game of 2024.

The Vikings secured a 12-7 win over the Jaguars, despite Sam Darnold throwing three interceptions that kept Minnesota out of the end zone. The defense stepped up, forcing three takeaways, including a crucial red-zone stop late in the fourth quarter.

The Vikings are now 7-2 and remain firmly in the NFC North race.

PICK – UNDER 39.5 TOTAL POINTS

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LAS VEGAS RAIDERS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS

Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL

TEAM TRENDS

  • Dolphins have failed to cover in each of their last 5 home games.
  • Raiders have lost each of their last 5 games.
  • 4 of Raiders’ last 5 games have gone over.
  • Dolphins have scored first in 4 of their last 5 games.

WIN/LOSS

TEAM W L HOME ROAD
LV 2 7 1-3 1-4
MIA 3 6 1-3 2-3

SEASON POINTS +/-

TEAM PPG OPPG DIFF TOT.AV.
LV 18.7 27.9 -9.2 46.6
MIA 16.5 29.1 -12.6 45.6

PICKS ATS

SPREAD POINTS RESULT
LV OVER MIA
+7.5 44.5 34-19
NFL PLAYER PROP BETS - HERE

PLAYER TRENDS

  • Brock Bowers has a TD in each of Raiders’ last 2 road games vs. AFC teams.
  • Tyreek Hill has a TD in 4 of his last 5 games vs. Raiders.
  • De’Von Achane has a TD in 4 of Dolphins’ last 5 home games.
  • Raheem Mostert has a TD in 8 of his last 10 home games.
  • Tyreek Hill has 76+ receiving yards in each of his last 5 games vs. Raiders.
  • Jonnu Smith has 45+ receiving yards in 4 of Dolphins’ last 5 games.
  • De’Von Achane has 77+ rushing yards in each of Dolphins’ last 3 games after a win.
  • Gardner Minshew II has thrown an interception in 6 of his last 7 road games.
  • Tua Tagovailoa has not thrown an interception in 6 of his last 7 games as a fav.
  • Jason Sanders has made 2+ field goals in 7 of Dolphins’ last 8 games as favs.

MATCH PREVIEW

Suffering through a five-game losing streak, the Raiders visit the Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium.

The Raiders, coming off a Week 10 bye, last played in a 41-24 defeat to the Bengals, dropping to 2-7 and facing another likely playoff miss.

The Dolphins snapped their own skid with a 23-15 win over the Rams on Monday Night Football. Miami’s defense stepped up, holding the Rams to five field goals, while Tyreek Hill found the end zone for the first time since Week 1.

The Dolphins have held opponents under 20 points four times this season and aim for another strong defensive showing against a struggling Raiders offense. Miami beat Las Vegas 20-13 at home in Week 11 last year and has won five of the last six home matchups against them.

PICK – LAS VEGAS +7.5

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LOS ANGELES RAMS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA

TEAM TRENDS

  • Rams first to 15 points in each of Patriots’ last 6 home games.
  • Patriots have lost 7 of their last 8 at Gillette Stadium.
  • 4 of Rams’ last 5 games have gone under.
  • Rams have covered in 4 of their last 5 as road favs.

WIN/LOSS

TEAM W L HOME ROAD
LAR 6 3 3-1 3-2
NE 3 7 1-3 2-4

SEASON POINTS +/-

TEAM PPG OPPG DIFF TOT.AV.
LAR 20.7 13.1 +7.6 33.8
NE 16.0 22.0 -6.0 38.0

PICKS ATS

SPREAD POINTS RESULT
LAR UNDER LAR
-4.5 43.5 23-20
NFL PLAYER PROP BETS - HERE

PLAYER TRENDS

  • Rhamondre Stevenson has a TD in 4 of his last 5 at Gillette Stadium.
  • Cooper Kupp has a TD in 5 of his last 7 vs. AFC teams.
  • Kyren Williams has 2+ TDs in 3 of Rams’ last 4 as road favs.

MATCH PREVIEW

Meeting for the first time since Week 14, 2020, the Rams and Patriots face off at Gillette Stadium.

The Patriots are coming off a dominant 19-3 win over the Bears, in which they recorded nine sacks, tying their post-merger franchise record. Despite the victory, New England has struggled at home, holding a 1-7 record over their last eight games at Gillette Stadium.

The Rams fell 23-15 to the Dolphins on Monday Night Football, with Matthew Stafford sacked four times and throwing an interception, as the team went 0-3 in red zone opportunities.

At 4-5, and with a tough schedule ahead, the Rams need a win against the 3-7 Patriots to stay in playoff contention.

PICK – UNDER 43.5 TOTAL POINTS

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CLEVELAND BROWNS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA

TEAM TRENDS

  • Saints have failed to cover in 9 of their last 10 home games vs. AFC teams.
  • Saints have lost 7 of their last 8 games.
  • 6 of Browns’ last 8 games have gone under.
  • Browns have won the 1st half in each of their last 4 vs. Saints.

WIN/LOSS

TEAM W L HOME ROAD
CLE 2 7 1-4 1-3
NO 3 7 2-3 1-4

SEASON POINTS +/-

TEAM PPG OPPG DIFF TOT.AV.
CLE 16.4 23.7 -7.3 40.1
NO 22.7 24.6 -1.9 47.3

PICKS ATS

SPREAD POINTS RESULT
CLE UNDER NO
+1.0 44.5 35-14
NFL PLAYER PROP BETS - HERE

PLAYER TRENDS

  • Juwan Johnson has a TD in 3 of Saints’ last 4 November home games.
  • Cedric Tillman has a TD in each of Browns’ last 2 games.
  • David Njoku has a TD in 5 of his last 10 games.

MATCH PREVIEW

Hitting the field together for the first time since Week 16, 2022, the Browns and Saints face off at Caesars.

The Saints snapped a seven-game losing streak with a 20-17 upset over the Falcons, highlighted by Marquez Valdes-Scantling’s 109 receiving yards and two touchdowns. In their first game under interim coach Darren Rizzi following Dennis Allen’s firing, New Orleans delivered a spirited performance.

The Browns return from their Week 10 bye, having lost 27-10 to the Chargers in their previous game. Quarterback Jameis Winston struggled with three interceptions in that outing, and the 2-7 Browns will need to reduce turnovers to boost their offense and turn their season around.

PICK – UNDER 44.5 TOTAL POINTS

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INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ NEW YORK JETS

MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ

TEAM TRENDS

  • First score has been a Colts TD in 4 of their last 5 as road underdogs.
  • Jets have lost 4 of their last 5 as favs.
  • 4 of Colts’ last 5 games have gone under.
  • Colts have covered in 6 of their last 7 vs. AFC teams.

WIN/LOSS

TEAM W L HOME ROAD
IND 4 6 3-2 1-4
NYJ 3 7 2-2 1-5

SEASON POINTS +/-

TEAM PPG OPPG DIFF TOT.AV.
IND 20.8 22.3 -1.5 43.1
NYJ 17.7 21.4 -3.7 39.1

PICKS ATS

SPREAD POINTS RESULT
IND UNDER IND
+3.5 43.5 28-27
NFL PLAYER PROP BETS - HERE

PLAYER TRENDS

  • Jonathan Taylor has a TD in 7 of his last 8 vs. AFC teams.
  • Davante Adams has a TD in each of his last 4 vs. Colts.
  • Garrett Wilson has a TD in 3 of Jets’ last 4 home games.
  • Josh Downs has a TD in each of Colts’ last 2 road games vs. AFC teams.

MATCH PREVIEW

Hitting the field together for the first time since Week 9, 2021, the Colts and Jets face off at MetLife Stadium.

The Jets are coming off a rough 31-6 loss to the Cardinals, where Aaron Rodgers had a season-low 151 passing yards, and New York’s defense allowed 406 total yards and four red-zone scores. Now sitting at 3-7, the Jets need a major turnaround to keep playoff hopes alive.

The Colts fell 30-20 to the Bills, with Joe Flacco struggling under pressure, throwing three interceptions and losing a fumble.

Indianapolis will reinstate Anthony Richardson as the starting quarterback, aiming to spark a team that has struggled to find consistency.

PICK – INDIANAPOLIS +3.5

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BALTIMORE RAVENS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA

TEAM TRENDS

  • Steelers have won their last 5 as underdogs vs. Ravens.
  • Last 7 Ravens vs. Steelers games have gone under.
  • Steelers have scored first in each of their last 4 games.
  • Steelers have covered in each of their last 4 games.

WIN/LOSS

TEAM W L HOME ROAD
BAL 7 3 4-1 3-2
PIT 7 2 3-1 4-1

SEASON POINTS +/-

TEAM PPG OPPG DIFF TOT.AV.
BAL 31.8 25.3 +6.5 57.1
PIT 23.9 16.2 +7.7 40.1

PICKS ATS

SPREAD POINTS RESULT
PIT UNDER PIT
+3.5 48.5 18-16
NFL PLAYER PROP BETS - HERE

PLAYER TRENDS

  • Derrick Henry has scored the first TD in 4 of Ravens’ last 5 Sunday games.
  • Derrick Henry has a TD in each of his last 11 games.
  • George Pickens has a TD in each of Steelers’ last 5 as home underdogs.
  • Mark Andrews has a TD in 4 of Ravens’ last 5 games.
  • Najee Harris has a TD in each of Steelers’ last 3 Sunday games.
  • Calvin Austin has a TD in 3 of Steelers’ last 5 home games.

MATCH PREVIEW

Division rivals with seven wins each, the Ravens and Steelers meet at Acrisure Stadium.

The Steelers are riding a four-game winning streak, highlighted by a 28-27 victory over the Commanders, where Russell Wilson threw three touchdowns, including a late game-winner to Mike Williams.

The Ravens pulled off a thrilling 35-34 comeback against the Bengals on Thursday Night Football. Lamar Jackson was stellar, completing 25 of 33 passes for 290 yards and four touchdowns.

The Ravens’ defense sealed the win by stopping Cincinnati’s two-point attempt with 38 seconds left. This matchup holds major divisional stakes and features an exciting clash: Baltimore’s top-ranked scoring offense versus Pittsburgh’s second-ranked scoring defense.

PICK – PITTSBURGH +3.5

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ATLANTA FALCONS @ DENVER BRONCOS

Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO

TEAM TRENDS

  • Broncos have covered in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss.
  • Broncos have won 6 of their last 7 home games vs. NFC teams.
  • 5 of Broncos’ last 6 games have gone over.
  • Falcons’ opponents have scored first in 4 of their last 5 games.

WIN/LOSS

TEAM W L HOME ROAD
ATL 6 4 3-3 3-1
DEN 5 5 2-2 3-3

SEASON POINTS +/-

TEAM PPG OPPG DIFF TOT.AV.
ATL 23.8 23.6 +0.2 47.4
DEN 19.7 17.7 +2.0 37.4

PICKS ATS

SPREAD POINTS RESULT
ATL UNDER DEN
+1.5 44.5 38-6
NFL PLAYER PROP BETS - HERE

PLAYER TRENDS

  • Bijan Robinson has a TD in 4 of Falcons’ last 5 games.
  • Bo Nix has a TD in 3 of Broncos’ last 4 vs. NFC teams.
  • Drake London has a TD in 6 of Falcons’ last 9 games.
  • Jaleel McLaughlin has a TD in 2 of Broncos’ last 3 home games.

MATCH PREVIEW

Meeting for the first time since Week 9, 2020, the Falcons and Broncos face off at Empower Field.

The Broncos are coming off a tough 16-14 loss to the Chiefs, where a blocked 35-yard field goal attempt in the final seconds denied them a W. Despite losing two straight, Denver remains in a wild card spot.

The Falcons fell 20-17 to the Saints, despite racking up 468 total yards of offense, ending a four-game division winning streak. Bijan Robinson was a standout, rushing for 116 yards and two touchdowns.

Atlanta has won three straight against Denver, including a 34-27 victory in their last meeting at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

PICK – ATLANTA +1.5

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SEATTLE SEAHWAKS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA

TEAM TRENDS

  • 49ers have failed to cover in each of their last 8 games after a win.
  • 49ers have won their last 6 vs. Seahawks.
  • 9 of 49ers’ last 11 vs. NFC West teams have gone over.
  • 49ers have won the 1st quarter in each of their last 7 games.
  • 49ers have been first to 20 points in each of their last 16 vs. NFC West teams.
  • 49ers have scored first in each of their last 6 vs. Seahawks.

WIN/LOSS

TEAM W L HOME ROAD
SEA 4 5 2-4 2-1
SF 5 4 3-2 2-2

SEASON POINTS +/-

TEAM PPG OPPG DIFF TOT.AV.
SEA 21.0 22.1 -1.1 43.1
SF 25.9 22.4 +3.5 48.3

PICKS ATS

SPREAD POINTS RESULT
SF OVER SEA
-6.5 48.5 20-17
NFL PLAYER PROP BETS - HERE

PLAYER TRENDS

  • Christian McCaffrey has a TD in 14 of his last 15 home games.
  • George Kittle has a TD in each of his last 5 vs. NFC teams.
  • Deebo Samuel has a TD in each of 49ers’ last 4 vs. Seahawks.
  • D.K. Metcalf has a TD in 4 of Seahawks’ last 5 as road underdogs.
  • Tyler Lockett has a TD in each of Seahawks’ last 3 vs. NFC West teams.

MATCH PREVIEW

Facing off for the second time in 2024, the Seahawks and 49ers meet at Levi’s Stadium.

The 49ers come off a 23-20 win over the Buccaneers, moving above .500 for the first time since Week 1. Christian McCaffrey impressed in his return from injury, totaling 107 yards on 19 touches. Kicker Jake Moody, despite missing three field goals, redeemed himself with a 44-yard game-winner as time expired.

The Seahawks had a bye week after a 26-20 overtime loss to the Rams. Seattle has struggled, losing five of their last six games and dropping from first to last in the NFC West.

San Francisco won the Week 6 matchup 36-24, extending its win streak over Seattle to six games.

PICK – OVER 48.5 TOTAL POINTS

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KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ BUFFALO BILLS

Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY

TEAM TRENDS

  • Chiefs have won their last 15 games.
  • Each of Bills’ last 7 home games have gone over.
  • Bills have scored first in 12 of their last 13 vs. Chiefs.
  • Chiefs have scored last in each of their last 5 vs. Bills at Highmark Stadium.
  • Chiefs have covered in each of their last 4 road games vs. Bills.

WIN/LOSS

TEAM W L HOME ROAD
KC 9 0 5-0 4-0
BUF 8 2 4-0 4-2

SEASON POINTS +/-

TEAM PPG OPPG DIFF TOT.AV.
KC 24.3 17.9 +6.4 42.2
BUF 29.0 19.3 +9.7 48.3

PICKS ATS

SPREAD POINTS RESULT
KC OVER BUF
+2.5 46.5 30-21
NFL PLAYER PROP BETS - HERE

PLAYER TRENDS

  • Kareem Hunt has scored the first TD in 3 of his last 4 road games.
  • James Cook has a TD in 4 of his last 5 games.
  • Kareem Hunt has a TD in 4 of Chiefs’ last 5 games.
  • DeAndre Hopkins has a TD in 4 of his last 5 vs. Bills.
  • Amari Cooper has a TD in 3 of his last 4 home games.
  • Josh Allen has a TD in each of Bills’ last 2 vs. Chiefs.
  • Travis Kelce has a TD in 5 of Chiefs’ last 7 vs. Bills.
  • Xavier Worthy has a TD in each of Chiefs’ last 2 road games vs. AFC teams.

MATCH PREVIEW

In a rematch of their 2023 Divisional Round clash, the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills face off at Highmark Stadium. The Chiefs won that playoff matchup 27-24, securing their spot in the AFC Championship.

This season, the Bills are riding a five-game winning streak, most recently defeating the Colts 30-20 at Lucas Oil Stadium, where they forced four turnovers.

A win over Kansas City would keep Buffalo just one game behind the Chiefs in the loss column and solidify their path to a division title.

The Chiefs, still undefeated this season, narrowly beat the Broncos 16-14 last week after blocking a last-second field goal, extending their franchise-record winning streak to 15 games.

PICK – OVER 46.5 TOTAL POINTS

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CINCINNATI BENGALS @ LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA

TEAM TRENDS

  • Chargers have scored first in 8 of their last 9 games.
  • Bengals have lost 8 of their last 10 road games vs. AFC teams.
  • Last 6 of 7 games between Bengals and Chargers have gone under.
  • Chargers have covered in 4 of their last 5 games.

WIN/LOSS

TEAM W L HOME ROAD
CIN 4 6 1-4 3-2
LAC 6 3 3-1 3-2

SEASON POINTS +/-

TEAM PPG OPPG DIFF TOT.AV.
CIN 27.0 26.2 +0.8 53.2
LAC 20.7 13.1 +7.6 33.8

PICKS ATS

SPREAD POINTS RESULT
LAC UNDER LAC
-1.5 47.5 34-27
NFL PLAYER PROP BETS - HERE

PLAYER TRENDS

  • Gus Edwards has scored the first TD in each of his last 2 vs. Bengals.
  • Chase Brown has a TD in 6 of Bengals’ last 7 games.
  • Ladd McConkey has a TD in 3 of Chargers’ last 4 home games.
  • Ja’Marr Chase has a TD in 6 of Bengals’ last 8 games.
  • Quentin Johnston has a TD in 4 of his last 6 games.
  • Joe Burrow has a TD in each of Bengals’ last 2 vs. Chargers.

MATCH PREVIEW

Riding a 3-game winning streak, the Chargers host the Bengals at SoFi Stadium.

The Chargers are coming off a 27-17 win over the Titans, showcasing a blend of defense and balanced offense. The defense sacked Will Levis seven times, while Justin Herbert contributed both a passing and rushing touchdown.

The Bengals suffered a heartbreaking 35-34 loss to the Ravens on Thursday Night Football, squandering a 14-point third-quarter lead. Ja’Marr Chase was spectacular, catching 11 passes for 264 yards and three touchdowns, but the Bengals fell short, failing to convert a crucial two-point attempt late in the game. The loss ended Cincinnati’s three-game road winning streak.

PICK – UNDER 47.5 TOTAL POINTS

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