NFL – Christmas Day Picks – Week 17

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These free NFL expert picks and player prop picks are done the previous game day. Adjust selections should spreads and lineups change.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA

TEAM TRENDS

  • 7 of the Steelers’ last 10 games have gone overs.
  • The Chiefs have covered the line in their last 3 games vs. the Steelers.
  • The Chiefs have scored first in their last 5 games.
  • The Steelers’ opponents have scored last in their last 6 games.

WIN/LOSS

TEAM W L HOME ROAD
KC 14 1 8-0-0 6-1-0
PIT 10 5 5-1-0 5-4-0

SEASON POINTS +/-

TEAM PPG OPPG DIFF TOT.AV.
KC 23.7 18.5 +5.2 42.2
PIT 23.5 19.9 +3.6 43.4

PICKS ATS

SPREAD POINTS RESULT
KC OVER KC
-2.5 43.5 29-10
NFL PLAYER PROP BETS - HERE

PLAYER TRENDS

  • Xavier Worthy has a touchdown in the Chiefs’ last 4 road games vs. AFC teams.
  • Travis Kelce has a touchdown in his last 2 games vs. the Steelers.
  • Pat Freiermuth has a touchdown in 3 of the Steelers’ last 4 games.
  • Noah Gray has a touchdown in the Chiefs’ last 3 road games.
  • George Pickens has a touchdown in the Steelers’ last 4 games as slight underdogs.
  • Isiah Pacheco has a touchdown in 4 of his last 5 road games.
  • Patrick Mahomes has 2+ passing TDs in the Chiefs’ last 4 road games.
  • Noah Gray has 21+ receiving yards in the Chiefs’ last 6 road games.
  • George Pickens has 74+ receiving yards in his last 3 home games.
  • Russell Wilson has 27+ rushing yards in his last 6 games vs. the Chiefs.
  • Kareem Hunt has 45+ rushing yards in the Chiefs’ last 6 road games.
  • DeAndre Hopkins has 4+ receptions in the Chiefs’ last 5 games.
  • Xavier Worthy has 5+ receptions in the Chiefs’ last 4 games.
  • Jaylen Warren has 41+ rushing yards in the Steelers’ last 4 home games.
  • Najee Harris has 41+ rushing yards in 10 of the Steelers’ last 11 games.
  • Isiah Pacheco has 26+ rushing yards in his last 23 games.
  • Russell Wilson has 205+ passing yards in 7 of his last 8 games vs. AFC teams.
  • Patrick Mahomes has 258+ passing yards in the Chiefs’ last 3 games vs. the Steelers.
  • T.J. Watt has 0.5+ sacks in 13 of the Steelers’ last 16 home games.
  • Patrick Mahomes has no interceptions in the Chiefs’ last 7 games as favorites.

MATCH PREVIEW

The Kansas City Chiefs and Steelers renew their rivalry on Christmas Day at Acrisure Stadium, their first meeting since the 2021 Wild Card Round.

The Chiefs secured a 27-19 win over the Texans last week, inching closer to clinching the AFC’s top seed and a first-round bye. A victory in Pittsburgh would seal that distinction for Kansas City.

The Steelers dropped a pivotal 34-17 game to the Ravens, leaving them tied with Baltimore atop the AFC North with two games remaining. Pittsburgh holds the tiebreaker via a better conference record but faces a daunting final stretch against Kansas City and Cincinnati.

The Steelers will hope for the return of George Pickens, whose absence has coincided with a dip in offensive production, dropping from 324.9 yards per game to 248.3.

PICK – KANSAS CITY -2.5

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BALTIMORE RAVENS @ HOUSTON TEXANS

NRG Stadium, Houston, TX

TEAM TRENDS

  • The Texans have covered the line in their last 8 games as underdogs following a loss.
  • The Ravens have won their last 5 games vs. the Texans.
  • 9 of the Ravens’ last 11 games have gone overs.
  • The Texans have scored first in 9 of their last 10 games.
  • The Ravens have scored last in their last 7 games vs. the Texans.

WIN/LOSS

TEAM W L HOME ROAD
BAL 10 5 5-2-0 5-3-0
HOU 9 6 5-2-0 4-4-0

SEASON POINTS +/-

TEAM PPG OPPG DIFF TOT.AV.
BAL 30.1 23.3 +6.8 53.4
HOU 23.1 21.8 +1.3 44.9

PICKS ATS

SPREAD POINTS RESULT
BAL OVER BAL
-5.5 46.5 31-2
NFL PLAYER PROP BETS - HERE

PLAYER TRENDS

  • Joe Mixon has scored the first touchdown in 4 of the Texans’ last 7 games.
  • Mark Andrews has a touchdown in the Ravens’ last 4 games.
  • Nico Collins has a touchdown in his last 6 home games.
  • Rashod Bateman has a touchdown in 3 of the Ravens’ last 4 games.
  • Joe Mixon has a touchdown in 8 of his last 10 games vs. teams with a winning record.
  • Lamar Jackson has 2+ passing TDs in 8 of the Ravens’ last 9 games.
  • Derrick Henry has 2+ touchdowns in 4 of his last 7 games vs. the Texans.
  • Joe Mixon has 59+ rushing yards in 7 of his last 8 regular-season games vs. the Ravens.
  • Derrick Henry has 211+ rushing yards in 3 of his last 4 road games vs. the Texans.
  • Nico Collins has 78+ receiving yards in 6 of his last 7 home games.
  • C.J. Stroud has 232+ passing yards in 7 of the Texans’ last 8 home games.
  • Lamar Jackson has 207+ passing yards in 10 of the Ravens’ last 11 games.
  • Kyle Van Noy has 1.0+ sacks in his last 3 games with the Ravens as favorites.

MATCH PREVIEW

Baltimore and Houston face off at NRG Stadium on Christmas Day in a rematch of last season’s Divisional Round clash.

The Ravens secured a playoff berth last week with a dominant 34-17 win over the Steelers, tying Pittsburgh atop the AFC North at 10-5. Lamar Jackson shone with three touchdown passes, while Derrick Henry powered the offense with 162 rushing yards, his seventh 100-yard game this season.

The Texans fell 27-19 to the Chiefs, overshadowed by the loss of wide receiver Tank Dell to a serious knee injury. C.J. Stroud connected with Dell on a touchdown before the injury, with Dell finishing the day with 98 receiving yards. Houston, now at 9-6, faces a steep challenge as they aim to rebound and stay in the AFC playoff race.

PICK – OVER 46.5 TOTAL POINTS

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