*These NBA computer picks are done the morning of game day, adjust picks should spreads and lineups change.
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MIAMI @ BOSTON
EASTERN CONFERENCE 1ST ROUND – GAME 5
BOSTON LEADS 3-1
Over/Under Prediction: Under 199.5 Total Points
The Celtics have seen 7 of their last 8 playoff games go unders, a trend towards defensive battles in postseason matchups. The Heat have hit the game total under in 59 of their last 97 games.
The Celtics have won 14 of their last 15 home games after a win, indicating a strong defensive presence on their home court. With the Heat covering the spread in 7 of their last 8 road games, they are likely to bring a defensive mindset into this matchup, contributing to a lower-scoring affair.
The above, with the recent playoff trends favoring unders and the defensive strengths of both teams, the under 199.5 total points seems like the best pick.
ATS Prediction: Miami Heat +14.0
While Celtics have shown dominance at home, winning 14 of their last 15 home games after a win, the Heat have had resilience on the road, covering 7 of their last 8 road games. The Celtics have only hit the moneyline in 10 of their last 15 games, indicating some inconsistencies in their performances.
Given the Celtics’ tendency towards lower-scoring games and the Heat’s ability to cover the spread on the road, a +14.0 spread for the Heat appears favorable. The Heat’s defensive capabilities and recent road performance suggest they can keep this game competitive and potentially cover the spread.
Best Pick: Under 199.5 Total Points
DALLAS @ LA CLIPPERS
WESTERN CONFERENCE 1ST ROUND – GAME 5
SERIES TIED 2-2
Over/Under Prediction: Under 208.5 Total Points
The Mavs have hit the game total under in 41 of their last 61 games, including their last 10 games at Crypto.com Arena, suggesting a consistent trend towards defensive battles, especially on the road. The he Clippers have hit the game total under in 45 of their last 81 games.
The Clippers have struggled in their recent home games after a road win, failing to do so in 9 of their last 10 home games. Their poor performance in Western First Round home games, losing 11 of their last 13 matchups, suggests they might struggle to put up points against a disciplined Mavericks defense.
Considering these factors, along with the historical trends favoring unders and the defensive strengths of both teams, the under 208.5 total points seems like the best bet.
ATS Prediction: Dallas Mavericks -3.0
The Clippers’ have struggled at home after a road win and their poor performance in playoff home games, the Mavericks have shown consistency in covering the spread, achieving this in 26 of their last 37 games.
The Mavericks’ recent dominance at Crypto.com Arena, with their last 10 games there going unders, suggests they have the defensive capability to limit the Clippers’ scoring opportunities and potentially cover the -3.0 spread.
