FREE NBA PLAYOFF PICKS
*These NBA Playoff picks and research are done the previous game day evening, adjust your selections accordingly should spreads and lineups change.
DP’S PLAYER PROP
SEASON RECORD: 62-40
Expert NBA Player Props Analyst, Daniel Parisi, gives his best daily prop.
LA LAKERS VS HOUSTON
Just like Paul George, I too, am showing signs of activating “Playoff P” unfortunately. Don’t fade me just yet, I’ll re-align pretty quickly and it all starts tomorrow.
In 37 minutes, Game 1 – against the H Rockets, Anthony Davis had the easiest 25 and 14 you could ever ask for. But it wasn’t enough. Down 1-0 you go LA.
What was the issue? Well, AD, settled for far too many elbow jumpers, against the undersized P.J Tucker. Something has got to give. We know AD bounces back every time he under performs or gets called out.
62% on 16 shot attempts returned AD a breezy 25 points. An embarrassing 2 trips tot he FT line cost him another 10 points, which is where we will win the overs prop tomorrow – at the charity.
I expect AD to be super aggressive in the first half, accumulate a stack and make it easy viewing as the game plays out.
DP’S PICK – ANTHONY DAVIS OVER 30.5 POINTS – WIN
MIAMI VS MILWAUKEE
MIAMI LEAD 3-0
PLAYER BETTING TRENDS
- Goran Dragic has 20+ points in 6 of the Heat’s last 7 games. (19.5)
- Tyler Herro has 16+ points in 8 of the Heat’s last 12 games. (14.5)
- Jae Crowder has 15+ points in 5 of his last 6 games against the Bucks. (11.5)
- Bam Adebayo has 16+ rebounds in 3 of the Heat’s last 4 games. (11.5)
- Jimmy Butler has 24+ points in 6 of his last 9 playoff games against the Bucks. (21.5)
() = BOOKIE LINE
TREND BET
MIAMI
- 7-0 ATS in last 7 games vs teams above .600.
- 7-0 ATS in last 7 games vs teams above .500.
- 20-8 ATS in last 28 playoff games as a favorite.
- 7-0 ATS in last 7 games overall.
- Under is 6-2 in last 8 games vs teams above .600.
- Under is 8-3 in last 11 vs teams above .500.
- Under is 6-2 in last 8 overall.
MILWAUKEE
- 10-25-1 ATS in last 36 playoff games as an underdog.
- 1-4 ATS in last 5 games as an underdog.
- 0-4 ATS in last 4 games vs teams above .600.
- 0-5 ATS in last 5 games vs teams above .500.
- 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
- Under is 20-8 in last 28 games vs teams above .600.
- Under is 15-7-2 in last 24 vs teams above .500.
- Under is 4-0 in last 4 games as an underdog.
MATCHUP
- Bucks are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
- Under is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.
TREND BET – MIAMI -1.5 & UNDER 219.5 TOTAL POINTS
*Strongest trend bet of the night. If trends are your thing, this is your pick.
MATCHUP TRENDS
- Bucks are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
- Under is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.
SEASON SERIES
| GAME 3 | MIA | MIL | 115 : 100 |
| GAME 2 | MIL | MIA | 114 : 116 |
| GAME 1 | MIL | MIA | 104 : 115 |
| 07.08.20 | MIL | MIA | 130 : 116 |
| 03.03.20 | MIA | MIL | 105 : 89 |
| 27.10.19 | MIL | MIA | 126 : 131 (121 : 121) |
WIN/LOSS
| TEAM | W | L | HOME | ROAD |
| MIA | 44 | 29 | 29-7 | 15-22 |
| MIL | 56 | 17 | 30-5 | 26-12 |
SEASON POINTS +/-
| TEAM | PPG | OPPG | DIFF | AV. TOT |
| MIA | 112.0 | 109.1 | +2.9 | 221.1 |
| MIL | 118.7 | 108.6 | +10.1 | 227.3 |
History says this series is over.
No NBA team ever has come back from an 0-3 deficit to win a series in 139 attempts.
Miami took a 3-0 lead after outscoring the Bucks, 40-13, in the 4th quarter of Game 3. It was the biggest 4th-quarter points differential in playoff history.
Giannis finished Game 3 with 21 points, 16 rebounds and 9 assists but missed all seven 3-point attempts and made just 7 of 12 free throws.
Milwaukee has averaged 14.3 turnovers per game and shot 35.1% from 3-point range in the series, including just 20.8% in the fourth quarter.
Jimmy Butler, who had 40 points in Game 1, hit the game-winning free throws with no time on the clock in Game 2, and scored 30 points in Game 3 is another worry for the Bucks in Game 4.
Will the Bucks avoid the embarrassing prospect of a sweep tonight? We say, get the brooms out.
PICK – UNDER 219.5 TOTAL POINTS
LA LAKERS VS HOUSTON
HOUSTON LEAD 1-0
PLAYER BETTING TRENDS
- Russell Westbrook has 8+ rebounds in his last 6 games against the Lakers. (6.5)
- P.J. Tucker has 2+ three-pointers in 9 of the Rockets’ last 10 playoff games as underdogs. (1.5)
- Eric Gordon has 19+ points in the Rockets’ last 4 playoff games as underdogs. (17.5)
- Robert Covington has 14+ points in 4 of the Rockets’ last 5 games. (10.5)
- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has 2+ three-pointers in 4 of the Lakers’ last 5 games. (1.5)
- James Harden has 34+ points in 9 of the Rockets’ last 12 games against the Lakers. (31.5)
- LeBron James has 30+ points in 3 of the Lakers’ last 4 games. (29.5)
- Kyle Kuzma has 18+ points in 8 of his 11 previous games against the Rockets. (11.5)
() = BOOKIE LINE
MATCHUP TRENDS
- Rockets are 17-8 ATS in the last 25 meetings.
- Rockets are 17-8 ATS in the last 25 meetings.
SEASON SERIES
| GAME 1 | LAL | HOU | 97 : 112 |
| 07.08.20 | HOU | LAL | 113 : 97 |
| 07.02.20 | LAL | HOU | 111 : 121 |
| 19.01.20 | HOU | LAL | 115 : 124 |
WIN/LOSS
| TEAM | W | L | HOME | ROAD |
| LAL | 52 | 19 | 25-10 | 27-9 |
| HOU | 44 | 28 | 24-12 | 20-16 |
SEASON POINTS +/-
| TEAM | PPG | OPPG | DIFF | AV. TOT |
| LAL | 113.4 | 107.6 | +5.8 | 221.0 |
| HOU | 117.8 | 114.8 | +3.0 | 232.6 |
Houston outscored the Lakers 27-18 in the 4th quarter to lead by as many as 19 points in a comfortable Game 1 victory.
Houston held the Lakers to 97 points, 42.2% from the field and 11-of-38 from 3-point range. The rebounding numbers were even at 41-41, a win given that the Rockets are so undersized. Houston had 13 steals and limited the Lakers to 19 free throws.
Perhaps most important, the Rockets scored 27 points off of 15 Lakers turnovers.
Harden finally found his swagger after going missing late in the OKC series. He had 25 of his 36 points in the 1st half, and got to the free-throw line 11 times before the break.
Lebron (20 points, 8 rebounds, 7 assists) and Davis (25 points, 14 rebounds, 3 blocks, 3 steals) carried the load in Game 1, and will need more from their role players to avoid an 0-2 hole.
PICK – HOUSTON +5.5
PLAYER PROP – JAMES HARDEN OVER 31.5 POINTS (James Harden has 34+ points in 9 of the Rockets’ last 12 games against the Lakers. (31.5)
