FREE NBA PLAYOFF PICKS
*Original NBA Playoff picks and research are done a game day morning, adjust your selections accordingly should spreads and lineups change.
DP’S PLAYER PROP
SEASON RECORD: 69-41
Expert NBA Player Props analyst, Daniel Parisi, gives his best daily prop.
MIAMI @ BOSTON
Miami’s X-factor has been delivering all season long and it was no surprise to see him nominated for the most improved award, where he was narrowly beaten on media votes by Brandon Ingram.
Through two playoff series thus far, Bam is averaging 16.1 points on 50% FG but if we deep-dive and eyeball situational opponents, 15 flat on 48.5% on the floor against the Pacers (vs Turner) and 17.2 on 60% on the floor against the Bucks (Lopez).
Of most importance, is Bam’s consistent shot count in respective Game 1’s where he took 14 & 12 – netting out at 13 shots (which is +18% from his season average).
His direct opponent this time is the euro rim-protector in Daniel Theis – who plays an exceptional team defense role for his Celtic’s counterparts but can be exposed individually with powerful straight line drives inflicted by Bam.
Just weeks ago in the bubble regular season play-in, when Butler was resting, Bam had 21 points on 12 FG attempts against Theis, however, most impressively was 11 from 18 at the line.
I don’t expect Bam to get this many touches in the paint with Butler playing but this historical performance (achieved momentum) bodes exceptionally well for Spolstra on play-design.
In the game prior, throwing it back to January 29 when both teams were 30+ wins into their campaign, Bam was 7-11 on the floor for 16 points against Theis.
Bam has the edge (and if he has any doubt) look no further than the damage Serge Ibaka caused from 10-feet in the Raptors/Celtics series because Bam can pick n’ pop and make it drop from 10 to 16-feet.
PICK – BAM ADEBAYO OVER 14.5 POINTS – WIN
MIAMI @ BOSTON
SERIES OPENER
PLAYER BETTING TRENDS
- Kemba Walker has made 3+ three-pointers in 7 of his last 8 games against the Heat. (2.5)
- Marcus Smart has 5+ rebounds in 7 of the Celtics’ last 8 games. (4.5)
- Jae Crowder has 16+ points in the Heat’s last 4 games. (11.5)
- Marcus Smart has 5+ assists in the Celtics’ last 4 games at this venue. (4.5)
- Jimmy Butler has 22+ points in 4 of his last 5 games against the Celtics. (20.5)
- Goran Dragic has 20+ points in 5 of his last 6 games against the Celtics. (18.5)
- Tyler Herro has 14+ points in 11 of the Heat’s last 14 games. (13.5)
- Bam Adebayo has 11+ rebounds in 5 of the Heat’s last 7 games. (10.5)
() = BOOKIE LINE
TREND BET
MIAMI
- Under is 7-3 in last 10 games vs teams above .600.
- Under is 3-0-1 in last 4 vs teams above .500.
- Under is 7-3 in last 10 overall.
BOSTON
- Under is 7-1-1 in last 9 games vs teams above .600.
- Under is 4-0-1 in last 5 vs teams above .500.
- Under is 9-2 in last 11 games playing on 3+ days rest.
- Under is 8-1 in Celtics last 9 overall.
MATCHUP
- Under is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings.
TREND BET – UNDER 209.5 TOTAL POINTS
MATCHUP TRENDS
- Under is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings.
SEASON SERIES
| 05.08.20 | MIA | BOS | 112 : 106 |
| 29.01.20 | MIA | BOS | 101 : 109 |
| 05.12.19 | BOS | MIA | 112 : 93 |
WIN/LOSS
| TEAM | W | L | HOME | ROAD |
| BOS | 48 | 24 | 26-10 | 22-14 |
| MIA | 44 | 29 | 29-7 | 15-22 |
SEASON POINTS +/-
| TEAM | PPG | OPPG | DIFF | AV. TOT |
| BOS | 113.7 | 107.3 | +6.4 | 221.0 |
| MIA | 112.0 | 109.1 | +2.9 | 221.1 |
PICKS ATS
| Spread | Points | Result |
| BOS | UNDER | MIA |
| -1.5 | 209.5 | 117-114 (1OT) |
The Celtics are playing for their first Finals appearance since 2010.
The Heat are looking to get back to the Finals for the first time since 4- straight appearances during the LeBron, Wade and Chris Bosh Big-Three era ended in 2014. Udonis Haslem is the only holdover from those teams, along with his coach, Erik Spoelstra.
Miami swept the Pacers in the 1st round before knocking out the 1-seed Bucks in 5 games in the conference semifinals. The Celtics swept the 76ers in the 1st round before needing 7 games to get past the defending champion Raptors in Round 2.
Boston most recently played Friday while Miami has been waiting since Sept. 8th to take the floor again. The Celtics rode their stars hard down the stretch of their semifinal, with Tatum, Brown, Walker and Marcus Smart each playing 40+ minutes in the final two games.
The Celtics might be able to count on reinforcements with Gordon Hayward nearing his return from a right ankle sprain sustained in the first game of Round 1.
PICK – BOSTON WIN & UNDER 209.5 TOTAL POINTS
DENVER @ LA CLIPPERS
SERIES TIED 3-3
PLAYER BETTING TRENDS
- Nikola Jokic has 26+ points in the Nuggets’ last 4 games against the Clippers at this venue. (24.5)
- Ivica Zubac has 9+ rebounds in 4 of the Clippers’ last 5 games. (8.5)
- Michael Porter Jr. has 13+ points in the Nuggets’ last 3 games against the Clippers at this venue. (11.5)
- Kawhi Leonard has 10+ rebounds in the Clippers’ last 3 night games at this venue. (8.5)
- Paul George has 26+ points in 3 of the Clippers’ last 4 games against the Nuggets. (24.5)
- Michael Porter Jr. has 7+ rebounds in 3 of the Nuggets’ last 4 games at this venue. (6.5)
() = BOOKIE LINE
TREND BET
LA CLIPPERS
- Under is 8-1-2 in last 11 games vs. teams above .600.
- Under is 4-0-2 in last 6 overall.
DENVER
- Under is 3-0-2 in last 5 games vs. teams above .600.
- Under is 4-0-2 in last 6 overall.
MATCHUP
- Under is 40-18-2 in the last 60 meetings.
TREND BET – UNDER 207.5 TOTAL POINTS
MATCHUP TRENDS
- Under is 40-18-2 in the last 60 meetings.
SEASON SERIES
| GAME 6 | DEN | LAC | 111 : 98 |
| GAME 5 | LAC | DEN | 105 : 111 |
| GAME 4 | DEN | LAC | 85 : 96 |
| GAME 3 | DEN | LAC | 107 : 113 |
| GAME 2 | LAC | DEN | 101 : 110 |
| GAME 1 | LAC | DEN | 120 : 97 |
| 13.08.20 | DEN | LAC | 111 : 124 |
| 29.02.20 | LAC | DEN | 132 : 103 |
| 13.01.20 | DEN | LAC | 114 : 104 |
WIN/LOSS
| TEAM | W | L | HOME | ROAD |
| LAC | 49 | 23 | 27-9 | 22-14 |
| DEN | 46 | 27 | 26-11 | 20-16 |
SEASON POINTS +/-
| TEAM | PPG | OPPG | DIFF | AV. TOT |
| LAC | 116.3 | 109.9 | +6.4 | 226.2 |
| DEN | 111.3 | 109.2 | +2.1 | 220.5 |
PICKS ATS
| Spread | Points | Result |
| DEN | OVER | LAC |
| +7.5 | 207.5 | 104-89 |
The Clippers shit the bed in spectacular fashion in Game 6, and we heard the sound of millions of bet slips around the world torn up in anger, including our own.
The Clippers seemed to be cruising to a close-out, taking a 16-point lead into halftime and were up by as much as 19 early in the 3rd quarter. But the Nuggets outscored them 30-16 in the 3rd and took control in the 4th, eventually winning 111-98. The Nuggets outscored the second-seeded Clippers 64-35 in the second half.
Jokic had 34 points, 14 rebounds and 7 assists, connecting on 13 of 22 shots from the floor, including 4 of 6 3-pointers. Jamal Murray had 21 points, Gary Harris added 16 and Michael Porter Jr. chimed in with 13.
Paul George had 33 points, 6 rebounds and 5 steals, while Kawhi added 25 points, 8 boards and 5 assists.
The -7.5 line is still heavily favoring the Clippers, and the Unders trend is strong again.
PICK – NO BET
