FREE NBA PLAYOFF PICKS
*Original NBA Playoff picks and research are done a game day morning, adjust your selections accordingly should spreads and lineups change.
DP’S PLAYER PROP
SEASON RECORD: 70-41
Expert NBA Player Props analyst, Daniel Parisi, gives his best daily prop.
MIAMI @ BOSTON
I’m potentially playing with fire here – but the streak has been activated, so I’m going to ignite the flame thrower on an unusual player for an unusual total. Robinson returned 6 points on a slim 17 minutes in Game 1.
Just minutes into the game, the former Michigan guard drew two quick fouls, allowed Smart to get over him on screens and looked fragile on the defensive end.
But we’d be fools to think Spoelstra is willing to concede on Robinson considering they are 48 minutes into the series, hold a 1-0 lead and Smart continued to hoop no matter who was matched-up on him.
Yes, in all likely hood – Tyler Herro is going to receive a huge boost in minutes after his 12/11/9 but stick to the plan punters, Robinson is the go-ahead starter for now.
Robinson entered this series with a 9 ppg showing against the Bucks & 12.5 ppg against the Pacers. Moving into Game 2, of all players on the court, Robinson can surpass his total of 7.5 on 3 made shots.
Nobody can do that. Nobody.
The ironic thing is – Robinson averages around 7 three-point attempts per game and is 43.5% on the season from deep. We ‘could’ walk away winners by half-time, or be made to sweat on being subbed in-and-out. Either way, I still think we’ll get there and flex on the C’s.
PICK – DUNCAN ROBINSON OVER 7.5 POINTS – WIN
SAME GAME MULTI
- MIAMI @ BOSTON – MIAMI +5.5
- MIAMI @ BOSTON – OVER 199.5 TOTAL POINTS
ODDS – $2.03 – WIN
MIAMI @ BOSTON
SERIES OPENER
MATCHUP TRENDS
- Heat are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
- Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings.
SEASON SERIES
| GAME 1 | BOS | MIA | 114 : 117 (106 : 106) |
| 05.08.20 | MIA | BOS | 112 : 106 |
| 29.01.20 | MIA | BOS | 101 : 109 |
| 05.12.19 | BOS | MIA | 112 : 93 |
WIN/LOSS
| TEAM | W | L | HOME | ROAD |
| BOS | 48 | 24 | 26-10 | 22-14 |
| MIA | 44 | 29 | 29-7 | 15-22 |
SEASON POINTS +/-
| TEAM | PPG | OPPG | DIFF | AV. TOT |
| BOS | 113.7 | 107.3 | +6.4 | 221.0 |
| MIA | 112.0 | 109.1 | +2.9 | 221.1 |
PICKS ATS
| Spread | Points | Result |
| MIA | OVER | MIA |
| +2.5 | 208.5 | 106-101 |
If Game 1 was any indication, we’re in for a treat.
The Heat got the better of Boston 117-114 in OT in Game 1 thanks to a 14-point comeback for the in the 4th quarter before Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo put on their super hero capes in extra time.
Jimmy Buckets completed the game-winning 3-point play with 12 seconds left on the clock, but it was Adebayo’s block to deny Tatum the chance to tie that stole the headlines. It didn’t hurt that Magic Johnson tweeted it was the best defensive play he had ever seen in the playoffs.
Marcus Smart continued his strong playoffs with 26 points, but it wasn’t enough to make up for a poor outing from Kemba Walker who needed 19 shots to get to 19 points, his 3rd-straight game failing to reach 20 points while shooting worse than 32% (1 of 9 from 3-point range).
The Celtics were outscored 35-23 in the 4th quarter after holding Miami to a playoff-low 16 points in the 3rd.
For the Heat, it wasn’t just the Butler and Adebayo show. Dragic scored a team-high 29 points, and Jae Crowder added 22, but perhaps the statline of the night was from rookie Tyler Herro, who fell 1 assist short of his first career triple-double (12 points, 11 rebounds, nine assists) in 40 minutes off the bench.
We wouldn’t say that Boston choked in the first outing in the series, but it wasn’t far from it. Miami go 2-0 up.
PICK – MIAMI +2.5
