FREE NBA PLAYOFF PICKS – 13/9/20

FREE NBA PLAYOFF PICKS

*Original NBA Playoff picks and research are done a game day morning, adjust your selections accordingly should spreads and lineups change.

DP’S PLAYER PROP

SEASON RECORD: 67-41

Expert NBA Player Props analyst, Daniel Parisi, gives his best daily prop.

LA CLIPPERS @ DENVER

A slight hiccup in Game 5 means the LA Clippers will be required to suit up for another 48 minutes as they attempt to close out the western conference semis for a second time.

Second half fades and giving up big leads has been the Clippers’ Achilles heel all season long, and perhaps this could be attributed to a lack of late game team-cohesion and by this I mean the ability to play as a 5 in the crunch instead of rely on individual performances at both ends of the floor.

In the series, George is averaging 21.8 points on 47% from the floor (+13% from the Conference Semi-Finals) and aside from an unfortunate game 4 where he was caught in early foul trouble, returning just a 10 points, he has been able to dictate terms on the offensive side of the ball with ease.

George is connecting on 42% from 23-feet which is +1% on his season average and has tallied 4+ triples on three occasions. After a disappointing end to Game 5, I expect both George and Kawhi to shoulder the burden and ensure the Nuggets don’t hang around for too long.

I’m comfortable with George chasing 24+ points in this fixture with 16-18 shots expected on the floor.

PICK –  PAUL GEORGE OVER 23.5 POINTS – WIN

LA CLIPPERS @ DENVER

LA CLIPPERS LEAD 3-2

PLAYER BETTING TRENDS

• Paul Millsap has 11+ points in 4 of the Nuggets’ last 5 games. (9.5)
• Nikola Jokic has 26+ points in the Nuggets’ last 3 games. (24.5)
• Kawhi Leonard has 10+ rebounds in the Clippers’ last 3 games. (9.5)
• Jamal Murray has 7+ assists in the Nuggets’ last 3 games. (6.5)
• Paul George has made 4+ three-pointers in 3 of the Clippers’ last 4 games. (3.5)
• Paul George has 24+ points in 7 of his last 10 games with his team as a favorite against the Nuggets. (23.5)
• Lou Williams has 5+ assists in 10 of the Clippers’ last 15 games against the Nuggets. (4.5)

() = BOOKIE LINE

TREND BET

LA CLIPPERS

• Under is 8-1-2 in last 11 games vs teams above .600.
• Under is 3-0-2 in last 5 vs teams above .500.
• Under is 4-0-2 in last 6 games as a favorite.
• Under is 4-0-2 in last 6 overall.

DENVER

• Under is 3-0-2 in last 5 games vs teams above .600.
• Under is 3-0-2 in last 5 vs teams above .500.
• Under is 4-0-2 in last 6 overall.

MATCHUP

• Under is 40-18-2 in the last 60 meetings.

TREND BET – UNDER 214.5 TOTAL POINTS`

MATCHUP TRENDS

• Under is 40-18-2 in the last 60 meetings.

SEASON SERIES

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/- 

PICKS ATS

The Nuggets overcame a 15-point second-half deficit to pull out a 111-105 Game 5 win, and are now 5-1 in elimination games the past two seasons, including coming back from a 3-1 deficit to win its first-round series against Utah in seven games.

Jokic (22 points, 14 rebounds, 5 assists) and Jamal Murray (26 points, 8 rebounds, 7 assists) hit timely shots down the stretch. And Michael Porter Jr. hit a big 3-pointer to put Denver up by 5 with 1:11 to play and hit 4 free throws in the dying seconds to seal the victory.

Kawhi finished Game 5 with 36 points, 9 rebounds, 4 assists and 3 steals, and when Leonard got a breather in the second half, Rivers said “the game changed.”

The normally solid Clippers’ bench struggled in Game 5. Sixth Man of the Year Montrezl Harrell had six points and 3 rebounds, while three-time Sixth Man of the Year Lou Williams scored 4 points on 2-of-10 shooting (0 of 5 from 3-point range).

PICK  – OVER 214.5 TOTAL POINTS