Tonight’s NBA Computer Picks for Night 2 of the NBA Play-In Tournament.
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MIAMI @ PHILADELPHIA
ATS Prediction: Philadelphia 76ers -5.5
Philadelphia have shown strong performance trends, particularly in covering the spread in 54 of their last 93 games (+13.25 Units / 13% ROI). Their ability to consistently perform, especially in the early game phases as indicated by their 1Q and 1H Moneyline records, aligns well with managing the -5.5 spread against the Heat.
Philadelphia’s significant success rate in the 3Q Game Total Under (40 of their last 62 games, +17.15 Units / 24% ROI) also suggests a defensive stability that could thwart late rallies by Miami, a critical factor in covering larger spreads.
Over/Under Prediction: Under 207.5 Total Points
Both teams have been trending towards lower scoring games, with Miami hitting the Game Total Under in 55 of their last 91 games (+15.40 Units / 15% ROI) and Philadelphia displaying a tendency to keep scores low in the third quarter, a crucial period that often sets the tone for the remainder of the game.
The 76ers have a strong trend in hitting the 1Q Game Total Under in 44 of their last 71 games (+14.05 Units / 17% ROI), suggesting a slow start which could contribute to a lower overall score.
Best Pick: Under 207.5 Total Points
ATLANTA @ CHICAGO
Over/Under Prediction: Over 222.5 Total Points
The trends show a strong inclination towards higher scoring games for both teams, especially from the Atlanta Hawks. Atlanta has exceeded the game total over in 8 of their last 9 games against Eastern opponents.
Atlanta’s trend of hitting the 3Q Game Total Over in 50 of their last 81 games (17% ROI) aligns with Chicago’s trend where they’ve hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 48 of their last 82 games (11% ROI). This propensity for higher scoring in the latter half of games suggests that an Over outcome on the total points is likely.
ATS Prediction: Chicago Bulls -3.0
The Chicago Bulls have been strong in covering spreads, particularly in the second quarter, having covered the 2Q Spread in 34 of their last 47 games (35% ROI). While Atlanta has struggled against the spread overall, losing the spread in 31 of their last 87 games (32% ROI).
Chicago’s consistent performance in the 2Q and Atlanta’s recent challenges provide confidence in Chicago’s ability to cover the spread in this matchup.
