FREE NBA TIPS – DENVER @ LA LAKERS – 19/9/20

FREE NBA PLAYOFF PICKS

*Original NBA Playoff picks and research are done a game day morning, adjust your selections accordingly should spreads and lineups change.

DP’S PLAYER PROP

SEASON RECORD: 72-42

Expert NBA Player Props analyst, Daniel Parisi, gives his best daily prop.

DENVER @ LA LAKERS

The Lakers are winners of 5 straight, including 8 of their past 9, and as predicted set an aggressive early series tone against the Nuggets who in the second-half conceded defeat, emptied the bench and were ready to move on from Game 1.

After a grueling 14 matches, including two game 7’s, the Nuggets weren’t able to overcome early foul trouble to Jokic and Murray, despite their role players making decent in-game adjustments.

Moving into Game 2 my attention turns to Kyle Kuzma, the Lakers most valuable swingman through the second unit. Kuzma returned a modest 11 points in Game 1 on 62.5% from the floor – which is exactly what the Lakers want when he checks in to total his average of 25 minutes’ court time.

With a bigger picture in sight (yes – sacrificing being a starter and all that comes with it) – Kuzma is slowly but surely becoming a guy that LeBron can ‘potentially’ trust.

When you play with LeBron and AD – you’re going to get good looks. So get to the right spots.

When you’re on the court with Rondo – insert what I said above.

Rajon Rondo and LeBron James combined for 21 dimes in Game 1 – totaling 70% off team assists.

Kuzma entered the Western Conference Finals on a season best shooting high connecting on 55.6% FG with 3 of 5 games saluting on 11+ points and I anticipate this form to continue as the series unfolds against the Nuggets.

Kuzma can get you in transition, straight line drives and has knock-down abilities. Pending the combinations Vogel presents on court, Kuzma can get hot quick – and if LeBron is nursing a slight ankle query (losing that power-leg driving ability), we very well might receive an uptick in shot count.

PICK –  KYLE KUZMA OVER 10.5 POINTS

DENVER @ LA LAKERS

SERIES OPENER

PLAYER BETTING TRENDS

• LeBron James has 28+ points in 8 of his last 9 games in Game 2s of a playoff series. (26.5)
• Anthony Davis has 32+ points in 5 of his last 6 games with his team as a favorite against the Nuggets. (28.5)
• Rajon Rondo has 8+ assists in 4 of the Lakers’ last 5 games. (6.5)
• Michael Porter Jr. has 7+ rebounds in the Nuggets’ last 3 games. (6.5)
• Nikola Jokic has 25+ points in 12 of the Nuggets’ last 18 playoff games. (23.5)
• Kyle Kuzma has 4+ rebounds in 16 of his last 24 games. (3.5)

() = BOOKIE LINE

MATCHUP TRENDS

• Over is 21-7-2 in the last 30 meetings.

SEASON SERIES

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/- 

PICKS ATS

As soon as LeBron got the news that the MVP had gone to Giannis, we should have realised that the Lakers would hit 5th gear in Game 1.

LeBron displeasure over the distance between his 2nd-place vote tally and that of Giannis took center stage after Game 1.

“It pissed me off. That’s my true answer. It pissed me off because out of 101 votes, I got 16 first-place votes. That’s what pissed me off more than anything.” said LeBron, who had 15 points, 12 assists and 6 rebounds in the Lakers’ 126-114 Game 1 win.

Denver held James to 15 points, but Anthony Davis had 37 points and 10 rebounds as the Lakers’ 2nd-quarter surge allowed them to roll into an unassailable lead.

Jamal Murray scored 21 points for the Nuggets but experienced foul trouble in the 1st half. The Nuggets led 38-36 at the end of the 1st quarter, but were overwhelmed by the Lakers’ 3rd-quarter run, outscored 33 to 20.

The Lakers took a 70-59 edge at the main break, and increased the margin to as much as 27 in the 2nd half.

Like Overs again.

PICK  – OVER 213.5 TOTAL POINTS