*These NBA computer picks are done the morning of game day, adjust picks should spreads and lineups change.
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CLEVELAND @ ORLANDO
EASTERN CONFERENCE 1ST ROUND – GAME 7
SERIES TIED 3-3
Prediction: Orlando Magic +3.0
Rationale:
- The home team, Cleveland in this case, has been dominant in the last 11 playoff matchups against Orlando, suggesting a strong home-court advantage.
- Orlando has shown a tendency to cover the spread, doing so in 11 of their last 12 games. This includes an record of covering in 55 of their last 88 games, reflecting a solid performance against the spread with a 19% ROI.
- Cleveland has shown some weaknesses against the spread, notably struggling in the 3rd and 4th quarters in recent games.
Over/Under Prediction: Under 194.0 Total Points
Rationale:
- Cleveland’s games have trended towards lower scoring in the playoffs, with 7 of their last 8 playoff home games going under the total.
- The Magic, too, have shown a trend toward lower scoring in various quarters, particularly excelling at staying under in the first half (43 of their last 67 games) and the 4th quarter (hitting the under in 48 of their last 79 games).
- Both teams show patterns that suggest defensive play might dominate, with Cleveland also having a strong first half moneyline record but a tendency to stay under in total points.
Specific Quarter and Half Insights:
- The Magic struggle in the 1st quarter both in terms of scoring (hitting the over in only 29 of their last 80 games) and winning the moneyline (only in 28 of their last 73 games).
- The Cavaliers tend to go under in the 2nd quarter (35 of their last 63 games) and the first half (32 of their last 52 games), which could indicate early-game defensive strategies.
