*These computer picks are done the morning of game day, adjust picks should spreads and lineups change.
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MIAMI @ BOSTON
EASTERN CONFERENCE 1ST ROUND – GAME 2
BOSTON LEADS 1-0
Over/Under Pick: Under 203.0 Total Points
Given the strong under trends from both teams, betting on the under seems well-supported.
The Heat have hit the Game Total Under in 57 of their last 94 games (+16.30 Units / 16% ROI), indicating a trend towards lower-scoring games. The Heat have been particularly strong on the under in the first half of away games, achieving this in 32 of their last 49 (+14.75 Units / 26% ROI).
The Celtics show similar trends, with 50 of their last 76 fourth quarters staying under (+21.30 Units / 24% ROI) and a tendency to play low-scoring games at home.
Add to this, 9 of the Heat’s last 10 playoff games have gone under, emphasizing their playoff defense intensity. With the total set at 203.0 and given these trends alongside a playoff atmosphere likely to enhance defensive play, the under is the best bet.
ATS Pick: Boston Celtics -14.5
Boston’s strong home record and their ability to cover large spreads justify a prediction in their favor, even with a hefty spread of -14.5.
The Celtics have covered the 1H Spread in 59 of their last 86 games (+28.35 Units / 28% ROI), showing strong starts at home. Overall, they’ve won 38 of their last 42 home games straight up (+19.20 Units / 7% ROI) and have a notable streak of winning 26 of their last 27 home games against Eastern teams.
Although Miami have shown resilience by covering their last 8 games following a loss, Boston’s home advantage and their statistical backing, including an ability to lead at halftime and close games strongly, make them likely to cover the -14.5 spread.
Best Pick: Under 203.0 Total Points
NEW ORLEANS @ OKLAHOMA CITY
WESTERN CONFERENCE 1ST ROUND – GAME 2
OKLAHOMA CITY LEADS 1-0
Over/Under Pick: Over 210.5 Total Points
The New Orleans Pelicans have developed a noticeable inclination towards exceeding game totals, evident in various facets of their recent performances.
Over their last 74 games, they’ve only hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 74 games, which shows a tendency to exceed point totals (-18.40 Units / -23% ROI).
Contributing to this trend is Oklahoma City, particularly with their high-scoring home games. The Thunder have been involved in matchups surpassing the total in 26 out of their last 39 home games, resulting in a positive +10.65 Units / 23% ROI. Their ability to drive up the total points scored significantly impacts the overall trend.
Considering these factors, along with Oklahoma City’s proficiency in scoring at home, there’s a statistical likelihood that the total will surpass 210.5 points.
ATS Pick: New Orleans Pelicans +7.5
Despite OKC’s strong home form, New Orleans has performed well in the early parts of games, particularly in the first half where they’ve hit the 1H Moneyline in 55 of their last 81 games (+26.30 Units / 17% ROI).
This suggests they start games strongly, even in away settings. They have also shown solid performance against the spread in the first quarter, covering the 1Q Spread in 34 of their last 53 games (+14.45 Units / 24% ROI).
Historical matchup data that shows the road team covering the spread in the last 9 meetings supports the notion that New Orleans is likely to cover the +7.5 spread.
