Tonight’s NBA First Round Playoff Picks – Friday, 24th April

Game 3 swings the momentum across both conferences. Boston and Philadelphia are locked at 1-1 in a tightening East battle, Houston looks to take full control at home with a 2-0 series lead, while San Antonio and Portland enter a pivotal 1-1 contest out West.

BOSTON CELTICS @ PHILADELPHIA 76ERS

Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA
Time: 9:00 AM
Odds: BOS $1.35 / PHI $3.30
East 1st Round – Game 3 (Series tied 1-1)

Boston enters with a +7.7 season differential and elite defensive profile (107.2 OPPG). Philadelphia sits at -0.2 differential but benefits from a 23-18 home record. With the series level, expect Boston’s defensive depth and perimeter shot-making to provide the slight edge in a lower-possession environment.

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/-

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Team Trends

• Celtics have won 9 straight games after losing as favourites
• 76ers have seen 8 of last 9 games go UNDER
• Celtics have won the 1st half in 6 straight playoff road games
• 76ers have failed to cover 6 straight as home underdogs

Player Trends

• Jaylen Brown (Celtics) , 2+ threes in last 7 playoff games
• Jaylen Brown (Celtics) , 25+ points in last 12 vs Atlantic Division teams
• Jayson Tatum (Celtics) , 20+ points in last 13 road vs winning teams
• Jayson Tatum (Celtics) , 10+ rebounds in last 4 vs Atlantic Division teams
• Jayson Tatum (Celtics) , 8+ assists in last 4 road games
• Derrick White (Celtics) , 15+ points in last 6 road vs 76ers
• Derrick White (Celtics) , 4+ assists in last 8 as road favourite
• Tyrese Maxey (76ers) , 3+ threes in 10 of last 11 as underdog
• Tyrese Maxey (76ers) , 8+ assists in last 4 playoff games as underdog
• Paul George (76ers) , 20+ points in 12 of last 13 playoff home games
• Paul George (76ers) , 4+ assists in 14 of last 15 Game 3s
• VJ Edgecombe (76ers) , 18+ points in last 3 as home underdog

Game Preview

Game 2 showed the exact formula Philadelphia need — elite shooting variance + forcing Boston into inefficiency. They hit nearly 50% from deep while Boston went cold, and that’s the only real pathway for the 76ers to consistently compete in this matchup.

The problem is sustainability.

Boston’s profile is built on repeatable offense and defensive control, not shooting spikes. Even in the loss, they generated volume looks — they just didn’t fall. Historically, teams like Boston respond strongly in these spots, which aligns with their 9-0 bounce-back trend after losing as favourites.

The UNDER trend is also key here. Playoff Game 3s typically slow down, and both teams now understand each other’s actions. If pace drops, it actually favours Boston — their half-court execution is cleaner, while Philly relies more on shot-making bursts.

Maxey and George will get theirs, but Boston have multiple defenders to throw at them, and over a full game, their depth and structure usually wear teams down.

PICK – UNDER 215.5 TOTAL POINTS

LOS ANGELES LAKERS @ HOUSTON ROCKETS

Toyota Center, Houston, TX
Time: 10:00 AM
Odds: LAL $4.20 / HOU $1.24
West 1st Round – Game 3 (LAL lead 2-0)

Houston’s +5.2 differential and 30-11 home record position them strongly to protect home court. The Lakers carry a +1.7 differential but face pressure trailing 0-2. Expect Houston’s defensive discipline (110.0 OPPG) and transition efficiency to dictate tempo against a Lakers side needing urgency.

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/-

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Team Trends

• Lakers have won the 1st half in 8 of last 9 playoff games as underdogs
• Lakers have lost 9 straight playoff road games
• 8 of the Rockets’ last 9 playoff games as favourites have gone UNDER
• Rockets have lost 10 of their last 13 playoff games

Player Trends

• LeBron James (Lakers) , 25+ points in 7 of last 8 playoff road games
• LeBron James (Lakers) , 8+ rebounds in 7 of last 8 playoff road games
• LeBron James (Lakers) , 8+ assists in 6 of last 7 playoff road games
• Marcus Smart (Lakers) , 2+ threes in 9 of last 10 playoff road games
• Marcus Smart (Lakers) , 6+ assists in last 4 games
• Amen Thompson (Rockets) , 7+ assists in last 5 games
• Amen Thompson (Rockets) , 16+ points in last 9 games
• Alperen Sengun (Rockets) , 15+ points in last 9 playoff games
• Alperen Sengun (Rockets) , 8+ rebounds in last 9 playoff games
• Kevin Durant (Rockets) , 25+ points in all 10 Game 3 appearances
• Deandre Ayton (Lakers) , 15+ points in 4 of last 5 playoff road games
• Deandre Ayton (Lakers) , 9+ rebounds in last 8 Game 3s

Game Preview

This series has quietly turned into a defensive grind, and that’s exactly how both teams now want it.

Game 2 showed a clear shift from the Rockets. They tightened perimeter defence, slowed the pace, and forced the Lakers into half-court execution.

The Lakers still have control of the series, but there’s a split dynamic here. Early in games, they’ve consistently come out sharper — reflected in their elite first-half trend. Over full games on the road, though, they’ve struggled to sustain that level, which is why the 0-9 playoff road skid matters.

Houston’s path is clearer now: slow the game, lean on Sengun inside, and let Amen Thompson control tempo. Durant is the wildcard, but if he’s forced into tough, contested looks again, efficiency becomes an issue.

PICK – LA LAKERS +9.5

SAN ANTONIO SPURS @ PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS

Moda Center, Portland, OR
Time: 12:30 PM
Odds: SA $1.77 / POR $2.10
West 1st Round – Game 3 (Series tied 1-1)

San Antonio’s +8.3 differential and 119.8 PPG offense highlight their overall balance. Portland sits near neutral at -0.3 differential but holds a 24-17 home mark. With the series tied, expect a physical rebounding battle and tighter scoring margins. Slight edge to the Spurs’ offensive efficiency and playoff depth.

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/-

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Team Trends

• Spurs have won the 1st half in 9 straight road games
• Spurs have won 8 straight games following a loss
• Last 5 meetings have gone UNDER
• Trail Blazers have failed to cover 4 of last 5 playoff home games

Player Trends

• De’Aaron Fox (Spurs) , 26+ points in all 3 playoff road games
• De’Aaron Fox (Spurs) , 6+ assists in 4 of last 5 playoff games
• Devin Vassell (Spurs) , 3+ threes in last 4 road vs Blazers
• Devin Vassell (Spurs) , 16+ points in last 7 vs Blazers
• Stephon Castle (Spurs) , 6+ assists in 8 of last 9 road games
• Stephon Castle (Spurs) , 15+ points in last 6 road games
• Scoot Henderson (Blazers) , 18+ points in last 3 vs Spurs
• Scoot Henderson (Blazers) , 2+ threes in last 4 vs Spurs
• Deni Avdija (Blazers) , 25+ points in 8 of last 9 games
• Deni Avdija (Blazers) , 6+ assists in 6 of last 7 home games
• Jrue Holiday (Blazers) , 15+ points in 9 of last 10 home games
• Donovan Clingan (Blazers) , 10+ rebounds in 6 of last 7 games

Game Preview

This game swings almost entirely on one factor: Victor Wembanyama’s availability.

If he’s out or limited, San Antonio lose their defensive anchor and interior advantage, which was already exposed in Game 2. Portland took full advantage by tightening perimeter defence and forcing the Spurs into inefficient outside shooting — a formula that clearly works.

Even with that, the Spurs still profile as the more stable team. Their ability to bounce back after losses (8 straight wins) is a strong indicator of structure and coaching adjustments, and their road form has been elite. They consistently start fast as well, which shows up in their dominant first-half trend.

Portland’s path is built on momentum and shot-making. Henderson and Avdija are both in strong scoring form, but that level of efficiency is harder to sustain game-to-game, especially if San Antonio tighten defensively.

The UNDER trend is also important here. Both teams have now seen what works defensively, and Game 3s typically slow down as adjustments kick in. If the pace drops, it favours the more disciplined side — which is still San Antonio.

PICK – SAN ANTONIO -2.5