Tonight’s Best NBA Playoff Picks – Thursday, 23rd April

Game 3 pressure ramps up across both conferences. New York and Atlanta are locked at 1-1 shifting the series to a pivotal swing game, while Cleveland looks to push Toronto to the brink with a 3-0 lead. Out West, Denver and Minnesota reset at 1-1 in what’s shaping as a physical, half-court battle.

NEW YORK KNICKS @ ATLANTA HAWKS

State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA
Time: 9:00 AM
East 1st Round – Game 3 (Series tied 1-1)

New York brings a +6.4 season differential and elite 30-10 home record, but now faces a tougher road test (22-19). Atlanta’s +2.5 differential and 24-17 home mark suggest stronger competitiveness in this setting. Expect a tighter scoring environment with defensive adjustments after two high-tempo games.

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/-

PICKS ATS

Team Trends

• Knicks have won the 1st quarter in 15 of last 16 road vs Hawks
• Knicks have won 7 straight First Round games following a loss
• Hawks have failed to cover 7 straight playoff games after a win
• Knicks’ last 4 games have gone UNDER

Player Trends

• Jalen Brunson (Knicks) , 25+ points in last 5 games
• Jalen Brunson (Knicks) , 6+ assists in last 14 First Round games
• Karl-Anthony Towns (Knicks) , double-double in 11 straight road vs Hawks
• Karl-Anthony Towns (Knicks) , 20+ points in 8 of last 9 playoff games
• Josh Hart (Knicks) , 4+ assists in last 12 First Round games
• Josh Hart (Knicks) , 13+ rebounds in last 2 games
• Mikal Bridges (Knicks) , 2+ threes in 8 of last 9 road vs Hawks
• OG Anunoby (Knicks) , 15+ points in last 6 road vs Hawks
• C.J. McCollum (Hawks) , 26+ points in last 3 games
• Nickeil Alexander-Walker (Hawks) , 15+ points in last 15 home games
• Jalen Johnson (Hawks) , 20+ points in 8 of last 9 home games
• Onyeka Okongwu (Hawks) , 8+ rebounds in 8 of last 9 vs Knicks

Game Preview

Game 2 showed exactly how fragile this matchup becomes when New York lose control of possession. Turnovers were the deciding factor, not shot quality, not scheme, just execution. That’s important because it’s one of the more correctable issues in a playoff series.

The Knicks still hold the structural edge. Their offense is more repeatable, driven by Brunson’s control and Towns’ interior presence. When they’re not giving away possessions, they generate more efficient looks and dictate tempo. That’s why the bounce-back trend is so strong in this spot.

Atlanta’s path to winning is far narrower. It relies heavily on McCollum shot-making and secondary scoring running hot at home. While that can win a game, it’s less reliable across a series, especially against a team that can slow pace and force half-court execution.

The UNDER trend ties into this perfectly. When New York are locked in, they drag games into a slower, more physical style that limits scoring runs and reduces variance.

PICK – NEW YORK -1.0

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS @ TORONTO RAPTORS

Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
Time: 10:00 AM
Odds: CLE $1.65 / TOR $2.30
East 1st Round – Game 3 (CLE leads 2-0)

Cleveland’s +4.1 differential and 119.5 PPG offense have translated cleanly into the playoffs. Toronto’s +2.8 differential shows competitiveness, but the Raptors must elevate defensively after conceding high-efficiency looks in the first two games. With momentum and depth advantage, Cleveland holds the edge.

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/-

PICKS ATS

Team Trends

• Cavaliers have won 12 straight playoff games vs Raptors
• Raptors’ last 12 games as underdogs have trended UNDER (9-3)
• Raptors have failed to cover 6 straight as underdogs
• Home team has won the 1st quarter in last 6 playoff meetings

Player Trends

• Donovan Mitchell (Cavaliers) , 30+ points in last 4 games
• Donovan Mitchell (Cavaliers) , 4+ assists in 8 of last 9 games
• James Harden (Cavaliers) , 22+ points in last 6 vs Raptors
• James Harden (Cavaliers) , 6+ assists in 19 of last 21 vs Raptors
• Evan Mobley (Cavaliers) , 17+ points in 8 of last 9 playoff games
• Evan Mobley (Cavaliers) , 8+ rebounds in 12 of last 14 vs Raptors
• Jarrett Allen (Cavaliers) , 10+ points in last 18 as favourite
• Jarrett Allen (Cavaliers) , 10+ rebounds in 5 of last 6 road vs Raptors
• RJ Barrett (Raptors) , 22+ points in last 4 games
• Scottie Barnes (Raptors) , 10+ rebounds in 5 of last 7 vs Cavaliers
• Immanuel Quickley (Raptors) , 6+ assists in last 3 vs Cavaliers
• Brandon Ingram (Raptors) , 20+ points in last 7 home vs Cavaliers

Game Preview

Through two games, Cleveland haven’t just been better, they’ve been more controlled in every key area.

The biggest difference is decision-making under pressure. Toronto’s turnover issues in Game 2 weren’t random, they were forced by Cleveland’s defensive structure and discipline. When the Cavaliers tighten up in the half court, they consistently disrupt rhythm and push opponents into low-efficiency possessions.

Offensively, Cleveland are operating with multiple layers. Mitchell is scoring at a high level, but the addition of Harden as a secondary creator has completely stabilised their offense. It removes pressure from isolation play and ensures they can generate quality looks late in the clock.

Toronto’s path is far less stable. Their scoring is coming from individual bursts rather than system-driven offense. That can work at home for stretches, but it’s difficult to sustain against a defence that’s already shown it can limit spacing and force mistakes.

The UNDER trend remains relevant. Cleveland are comfortable slowing games down once they establish control, and their defensive execution naturally suppresses total scoring.

PICK – UNDER 220.5 TOTAL POINTS

DENVER NUGGETS @ MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES

Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
Time: 11:30 AM
West 1st Round – Game 3 (Series tied 1-1)

Denver enters with a +5.2 differential and elite 10-0 recent form entering the postseason. Minnesota counters with a +3.4 differential and solid 26-15 home record. Expect a physical matchup dominated by half-court execution and rebounding control. Slight edge to Denver’s offensive efficiency and experience.

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/-

PICKS ATS

Team Trends

• Nuggets have won 13 of their last 14 games
• Timberwolves’ last 10 playoff home games have gone OVER (9-1)
• Nuggets have covered 5 straight playoff games following a loss
• Timberwolves have won the 1st half in 5 straight home vs Nuggets

Player Trends

• Nikola Jokic (Nuggets) , 25+ points in 7 of last 8 vs Timberwolves
• Nikola Jokic (Nuggets) , 10+ assists in last 4 road vs Timberwolves
• Nikola Jokic (Nuggets) , 14+ rebounds in 8 of last 9 road vs winning teams
• Jamal Murray (Nuggets) , 30+ points in last 3 playoff games vs Timberwolves
• Jamal Murray (Nuggets) , 6+ assists in 7 of last 8 road games
• Aaron Gordon (Nuggets) , 7+ rebounds in last 4 playoff games
• Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves) , 26+ points in last 5 home vs Nuggets
• Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves) , 4+ assists in 18 of last 19 playoff home games
• Julius Randle (Timberwolves) , 20+ points in 7 of last 8 home vs Nuggets
• Julius Randle (Timberwolves) , 6+ rebounds in 17 of last 18 vs Nuggets
• Rudy Gobert (Timberwolves) , 12+ rebounds in last 6 home games
• Donte DiVincenzo (Timberwolves) , 4+ assists in 9 of last 11 vs Nuggets

Game Preview

Minnesota flipped the script by owning the glass and second-chance points, and that’s not something Denver typically allows. If that continues, this becomes a very different series. The Timberwolves are at their best when they turn games into high-possession, chaotic battles, which naturally drives scoring up — aligning with the strong OVER trend at home.

That said, Denver still hold the most important advantage: the most reliable system under pressure. Jokic controls tempo better than anyone in the league, and when the Nuggets reassert that control, they slow games down and generate high-efficiency looks through structure rather than chaos.

Murray is the real swing factor. His scoring bursts in this matchup have been consistent, and when he’s aggressive, it prevents Minnesota from overloading on Jokic. If both are operating, Denver’s offense becomes extremely difficult to disrupt over a full game.

Minnesota will have stretches, especially early, where their energy and crowd push them ahead. But over four quarters, Denver’s composure, execution, and ability to adjust typically win out in tight playoff environments.

PICK – OVER 234.5 TOTAL POINTS