NFL – Sunday Free NFL Picks – Week 4

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*These free NFL picks and NFL player prop picks are done the previous game day, adjust selections should spreads and lineups change.

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NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ ATLANTA FALCONS

Sunday, September 29th

TEAM TRENDS

• The Falcons have scored first in each of their last 4 games.
• The Saints have covered 4 of their last 5 games.
• 4 of the Falcons’ last 5 home games have gone unders.

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/-

PICKS ATS

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BEST ROI PICKS

1. Saints 2H Moneyline (+44% ROI) – The Saints have hit the 2H Moneyline in 10 of their last 13 games.
2. Saints 2H Spread (+59% ROI) – The Saints have covered the 2H Spread in 9 of their last 11 games.
3. Saints Score Last (+42% ROI) – The Saints have scored last in 10 of their last 13 games.

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MATCH PREVIEW

The Saints and Falcons will meet in a key NFC South matchup with both teams eager to bounce back from losses. Atlanta’s offense, led by rookie Bijan Robinson, struggled against the Chiefs, especially in the run game. Despite outgaining Kansas City in the air, the Falcons couldn’t capitalize, managing only 17 points, with Robinson limited to just 31 rushing yards. They will need a more balanced offensive approach to contend with the Saints’ defense.

New Orleans, on the other hand, saw its early season swagger stall against the Eagles in a 15-12 defeat. While the defense allowed a staggering 460 total yards, it kept the game within reach by limiting the damage on the scoreboard. However, the Saints’ offense faltered, posting just 219 total yards.

They’ll be looking for a stronger showing against an Atlanta defense that can be vulnerable at times, especially if they can get back to their earlier offensive form.

PICK – OVER 41.5 TOTAL POINTS

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LOS ANGELES RAMS @ CHICAGO BEARS

Sunday, September 29th

TEAM TRENDS

• The Rams have scored first in each of their last 6 games vs the Bears.
• The Bears have scored last in each of their last 4 home games.
• The Bears have won their last 6 home games.
• The Bears’ last 4 games have gone unders.

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/-

PICKS ATS

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BEST ROI PICKS

1. Bears Score First (+57% ROI) – The Bears have scored first in 10 of their last 13 games.
2. Bears Home Moneyline (+43% ROI) – The Bears have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 home games.
3. Rams 3Q Game Total Over (+23% ROI) – The Rams have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games.

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MATCH PREVIEW

The Rams and Bears are set to square off at Soldier Field, with both teams looking for momentum.

The Bears, despite a 21-16 loss to the Colts, saw positive signs from rookie quarterback Caleb Williams. He threw for 363 yards and two touchdowns, a marked improvement from his earlier struggles. However, his three turnovers proved costly, and Chicago will need to clean up mistakes to have a chance against a tough Rams squad.

The Rams, on the other hand, pulled off an impressive 27-24 comeback win against the 49ers, led by Kyren Williams’ three touchdowns. The win was much needed for Los Angeles, avoiding an 0-3 start.

With Williams tied for the league lead in total touchdowns, the Rams’ offense is starting to find its rhythm. They’ll aim to build on that against a Bears defense that has shown vulnerability in key moments this season.

PICK – OVER 40.5 TOTAL POINTS

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MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS

Sunday, September 29th

TEAM TRENDS

• The Vikings’ last 3 games have gone unders.
• The Packers have won the first quarter in 11 of their last 12 games.
• The Packers have been the first to 15 points in each of their last 8 games.

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/-

PICKS ATS

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BEST ROI PICKS

1. Vikings 3Q Spread (+72% ROI) – The Vikings have covered the 3Q Spread in 8 of their last 9 away games.
2. Vikings 3Q Moneyline (+70% ROI) – The Vikings have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 away games.
3. Packers Score Last at Home (+62% ROI) – The Packers have scored last in 7 of their last 8 home games.

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MATCH PREVIEW

The Vikings, off to a strong 3-0 start, will face their division rivals, the Green Bay Packers, at Lambeau Field.

The Vikings are coming off a 34-7 win over the Texans, their largest winning in nearly five years. Sam Darnold’s four-touchdown performance and Aaron Jones’ 102 rushing yards helped fuel the victory, as the Vikings look to maintain their streak.

The Packers are fresh off a 30-14 win over the Titans led by quarterback Malik Willis who impressed with 202 passing yards and 73 rushing yards. While Willis has been effective, the possible return of starting QB Jordan Love could give Green Bay’s offense a boost.

With these teams splitting their matchups last season, this game will be key in shaping the NFC North standings early in the year.

PICK – MINNESOTA +2.5

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PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Sunday, September 29th

TEAM TRENDS

• The last 4 games between the Steelers and Colts have gone overs.
• The Steelers have scored last in 8 of their last 9 games vs the Colts.
• The Colts have won the first half in 4 of their last 5 games vs the Steelers.
• The Steelers have covered in their last 5 September games.

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/-

PICKS ATS

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BEST ROI PICKS

• Steelers 2H Moneyline (+61% ROI) – The Steelers have hit the 2H Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 away games.
• Steelers 3Q Moneyline (+42% ROI) – The Steelers have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 away games.
• Colts 1Q Game Total Over (+30% ROI) – The Colts have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games.

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MATCH PREVIEW

The undefeated Steelers face off against the Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday afternoon. Pittsburgh had a 20-10 win over the Chargers in Week 3, with their defense standing out once again, allowing just 166 total yards and recording five sacks. The Steelers’ defense currently leads the league in both yards and points allowed.

The Colts are coming off their first win of the season after defeating the Bears 21-16 thanks to Jonathan Taylor’s 110 rushing yards and two touchdowns. However, quarterback Anthony Richardson has struggled with interceptions, throwing six in his first three games.

Against Pittsburgh’s stout defense, which ranks tied for 6th in takeaways, Richardson and the Colts’ offense will need to be particularly cautious to avoid costly turnovers.

PICK – PITTSBURGH -1.5

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DENVER BRONCOS @ NEW YORK JETS

Sunday, September 29th

TEAM TRENDS

• The Jets have scored first in each of their last 4 home games.
• The underdogs have won 4 of the last 6 games between the Broncos and Jets.
• 4 of the Broncos’ last 5 road games vs AFC teams have gone unders.

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/-

PICKS ATS

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BEST ROI PICKS

1. Broncos 1Q Spread (+39% ROI) – The Broncos have covered the 1Q Spread in 16 of their last 21 games.
2. Broncos 1Q Moneyline (+34% ROI) – The Broncos have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 13 of their last 21 games.
3. Jets 3Q Game Total Under (+44% ROI) – The Jets have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 home games.

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MATCH PREVIEW

Denver and New York will face off for the fifth straight season at MetLife Stadium.

The Jets are coming off a big 24-3 win over the Patriots on Thursday Night Football, where Aaron Rodgers had his best performance as a Jet, completing 27 of 35 passes for 281 yards and two touchdowns. This marked their second straight win against the Patriots after 15 straight losses dating back to 2016.

The Broncos secured their first win of the season with a 26-7 win over the previously undefeated Buccaneers. Denver’s defense was outstanding, sacking Baker Mayfield seven times and holding him to just 163 passing yards.

Rookie quarterback Bo Nix hasn’t thrown his first career TD yet but managed his first win, showing his running skills in the process.

PICK – UNDER 39.5 TOTAL POINTS

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PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Sunday, September 29th

TEAM TRENDS

• The Buccaneers have scored first in the Eagles’ last 6 games.
• In the Eagles’ last 6 games, the first score has been an opponent Field Goal.
• The Buccaneers have won 5 of their last 6 games vs the Eagles.
• The Eagles’ last 6 road games have gone unders.

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/-

PICKS ATS

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BEST ROI PICKS

1. Buccaneers to Score Last (+53% ROI) – The Buccaneers have scored last in 10 of their last 13 games.
2. Eagles 3Q Game Total Under (+52% ROI) – The Eagles have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 10 away games.
3. Buccaneers to Score First (+48% ROI) – The Buccaneers have scored first in 7 of their last 9 games.

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MATCH PREVIEW

The Eagles will seek redemption in a rematch against Tampa Bay at Raymond James Stadium, revisiting their 2023 Wild Card Round upset where Tampa Bay triumphed 32-9.

The Buccaneers come into this game after suffering their first loss of the season, falling 26-7 to the Denver Broncos. Baker Mayfield struggled against Denver’s defense, which sacked him seven times, leading to a stagnant offense.

The Eagles are fresh off a 15-12 win over the New Orleans Saints, a low-scoring affair highlighted by Jalen Hurts throwing for 311 yards. Despite Hurts not finding the end zone, Saquon Barkley powered the Eagles’ offense with two fourth-quarter touchdowns and 147 rushing yards, tying for the NFL lead in TDs this season.

Philadelphia could face challenges in the passing game with top receivers DeVonta Smith in concussion protocols and A.J. Brown missing back-to-back games due to a hamstring injury.

PICK – UNDER 42.5 TOTAL POINTS

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CINCINNATI BENGALS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS

Sunday, September 29th

TEAM TRENDS

• The Bengals have won 9 of their last 10 games vs NFC opponents.
• In each of the Panthers’ last 7 home games, their opponents have scored first.
• The Panthers have lost the first half in 10 of their last 11 games.
• The Panthers have failed to cover in 4 of their last 5 games.

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/-

PICKS ATS

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BEST ROI PICKS

1. Bengals 1H Game Total Over (+67% ROI) – The Bengals have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 9 away games.
2. Bengals 2Q Game Total Over (+65% ROI) – The Bengals have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 8 away games.
3. Panthers 3Q Spread (+26% ROI) – The Panthers have covered the 3Q Spread in 13 of their last 18 games.

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MATCH PREVIEW

Facing the prospect of their first 0-4 start since 2019, the Bengals travel to Bank of America Stadium to take on the Carolina Panthers.

The Bengals come into this game following a 38-33 loss to the Commanders, despite scoring on six of their seven offensive drives. Their defense struggled, allowing Washington’s rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels to complete 21 of 23 passes, setting a new NFL rookie record for single-game completion percentage with a minimum of 20 attempts.

The Panthers secured their first win of the season in a 36-22 upset over the Raiders.

Veteran QB Andy Dalton made the most of his opportunity following the benching of Bryce Young, throwing for 319 yards and three TDs without an interception. With the win, Carolina moved within a game of the NFC South lead and will look to build on that against a struggling Bengals defense.

PICK – UNDER 47.5 TOTAL POINTS

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JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ HOUSTON TEXANS

Sunday, September 29th

TEAM TRENDS

• The Texans’ last 3 home games, the first score has been a Texans Field Goal.
• The Texans’ D/ST has a TD in 3 of their last 4 home games.
• The Texans have failed to cover their last 4 games.
• The Jaguars have lost 8 of their last 9 games.

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/-

PICKS ATS

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BEST ROI PICKS

1. Jaguars 3Q Spread (+35% ROI) – The Jaguars have covered the 3Q Spread in 13 of their last 18 games.
2. Jaguars 3Q Game Total Over (+36% ROI) – The Jaguars have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 18 games.
3. Texans 2Q Moneyline (+35% ROI) – The Texans have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games.

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MATCH PREVIEW

AFC South rivals, the Jaguars and Texans meet at NRG Stadium.

Both teams come into the game on the back of big losses. The Texans had their unbeaten run end in a 34-7 loss to the Vikings, with sophomore QB C.J. Stroud throwing two interceptions.

The Jaguars had a brutal 47-10 defeat to the Bills, falling behind 34-3 by halftime while allowing 388 total yards. Jacksonville’s 0-3 start has raised concerns.

Last season, Houston and Jacksonville split their meetings, with Houston winning 37-17 in Week 3 and Jacksonville taking a 24-21 win in Week 12 at NRG Stadium. Houston’s WR Tank Dell, doubtful for this game, was instrumental in those contests, racking up 195 yards and two touchdowns across both matchups.

PICK – HOUSTON -5.5

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WASHINGTON COMMANDERS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS

Sunday, September 29th

TEAM TRENDS

• In 9 of the Commanders’ last 10 games, their opponents have scored first.
• The Cardinals have covered 4 of their last 5 games.
• The Commanders have lost 9 of their last 10 games vs NFC opponents.

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/-

PICKS ATS

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BEST ROI PICKS

1. Washington 3Q Spread (+37% ROI) – The Commanders have covered the 3Q Spread in 13 of their last 18 games.
2. Arizona 2H Moneyline (+89% ROI) – The Cardinals have hit the 2H Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games.
3. Washington 1Q Game Total Over (+24% ROI) – The Commanders have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games.

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MATCH PREVIEW

Washington and Arizona face off at State Farm Stadium.

Washington is riding high after a 38-33 win over the Bengals, their highest-scoring game since 2020. Rookie QB Jayden Daniels shined, completing 21 of 23 passes for 254 yards and two touchdowns, setting a rookie record for single-game completion percentage. Daniels also added a rushing TD, adding to Washington’s offensive surge.

The Cardinals fell 20-13 to the Lions in Week 3, with their defense struggling against Jared Goff, who completed two first-half touchdowns and didn’t miss a pass until the third quarter.

Arizona’s pass defense has been shaky, and facing a Washington team that leads the league in completion percentage at 80.3% could spell trouble. Arizona ranks last in opponent completion percentage, allowing 75.3%, making this matchup a mismatch in the air.

PICK – ARIZONA -3.5

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NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Sunday, September 29th

TEAM TRENDS

• The Patriots’ last 4 games, their opponents have scored last.
• The Patriots have lost each of their last 6 games vs NFC opponents.
• 4 of the 49ers’ last 5 games have gone overs.

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/-

PICKS ATS

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BEST ROI PICKS

1. Patriots 4Q Game Total Under (+40% ROI) – The Patriots have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games.
2. 49ers 1H Game Total Over (+56% ROI) – The 49ers have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 11 home games.
3. 49ers 3Q Game Total Over (+26% ROI) – The 49ers have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games.

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MATCH PREVIEW

The Patriots and 49ers, both sitting at 1-2, will battle at Levi’s Stadium.

The 49ers let a 14-point lead slip in their Week 3 loss to the Rams, falling 27-24 despite controlling the game for most of the contest. Injuries played a key role, and they’ll be hoping to have George Kittle and Deebo Samuel back to bolster the offense.

The Patriots were smashed in their 24-3 loss to the Jets on Thursday Night Football, where they managed just 139 yards of total offense while giving up 400 to New York.

New England will need to regroup quickly to avoid a 1-3 start, but their struggles on both sides of the ball leave them facing an uphill battle against a tough San Francisco team.

PICK – UNDER 40.5 TOTAL POINTS

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CLEVELAND BROWNS @ LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

Sunday, September 29th

TEAM TRENDS

• The Browns have failed to cover in 4 of their last 5 games.
• The Raiders have won each of their last 4 games vs the Browns.

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/-

PICKS ATS

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BEST ROI PICKS

1. Browns Game Total Over (+72% ROI) – The Browns have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 10 away games.
2. Browns 1H Game Total Over (+71% ROI) – The Browns have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 10 away games.
3. Raiders Score First (+62% ROI) – The Raiders have scored first in 5 of their last 7 games.

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MATCH PREVIEW

Both the Browns and Raiders have just one win in 2024 and will be eager to return to the winners’ circle when they meet at Allegiant Stadium.

The Raiders are coming off a 36-22 loss to the previously winless Panthers in Week 3. Las Vegas struggled against Carolina’s passing game, allowing Andy Dalton to throw three first-half TDs. The Raiders’ rushing attack was nonexistent, managing just 55 yards, leaving them last in the league in rushing yards this season.

The Browns also fell to a previously winless team, losing 21-15 at home to the Giants. Cleveland’s offensive line faltered, allowing Deshaun Watson to be sacked eight times, which stymied their ground game to only 69 rushing yards.

Despite the struggles, Amari Cooper shined with seven catches for 86 yards and two TDs, but Cleveland will need more balanced production to turn things around.

PICK – OVER 37.5 TOTAL POINTS

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KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Sunday, September 29th

TEAM TRENDS

• The Chiefs’ last 4 games, their opponents have scored first.
• The Chiefs have won each of their last 10 road games vs the Chargers.
• The Chargers’ last 5 games have gone unders.

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/-

PICKS ATS

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BEST ROI PICKS

• Kansas City 4Q Game Total Under (+67% ROI) – The Chiefs have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 18 of their last 20 games.
• Chargers 3Q Game Total Under (+48% ROI) – The Chargers have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 14 of their last 18 games.
• Chargers 2H Moneyline (+61% ROI) – The Chargers have hit the 2H Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games.

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MATCH PREVIEW

The Chargers are coming off a tough 20-10 loss to the Steelers in Week 3, where their offense was completely stifled. Managing only 166 yards of total offense – their lowest output since 2012 – the Chargers found it tough, and Justin Herbert’s re-aggravated ankle injury puts his status for Sunday in question. Compounding the concern, the Chargers may also be without starting tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater, further hurting their offensive game plan.

On the other hand, the Chiefs come into this matchup off a 22-17 win over the Falcons. Though Kansas City hasn’t been dominant, their 3-0 start gives them a chance to establish a big division lead.

A win on Sunday would also mark the Chiefs’ 11th straight road win against the Chargers, highlighting their recent dominance in this rivalry.

PICK – KANSAS CITY -7.5

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BUFFALO BILLS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS

Sunday, September 29th

TEAM TRENDS

• The Bills have scored last in their last 4 road games.
• The Bills have covered in 4 of their last 5 games vs AFC opponents.
• 4 of the Bills’ last 5 games have gone overs.

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/-

PICKS ATS

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BEST ROI PICKS

1. Baltimore 2H Moneyline (+37% ROI) – The Ravens have hit the 2H Moneyline in 10 of their last 13 games.
2. Buffalo 2Q Game Total Over (+36% ROI) – The Bills have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games.
3. Baltimore 3Q Game Total Under (+31% ROI) – The Ravens have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 14 of their last 20 games.

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MATCH PREVIEW

Sitting at 3-0 to begin the 2024 season, the Bills will aim to maintain their momentum when they face the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium.

The Bills are coming off a dominant 47-10 win over the Jaguars in Week 3, with Josh Allen delivering another big game. Allen threw for 263 yards and four touchdowns, bringing his season tally to rank second in passing TDs. Buffalo’s offense has been firing on all cylinders to start the year.

The Ravens avoided an 0-3 start with a 28-25 win over the Cowboys. Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry combined for 238 rushing yards and three TDs.

Both Jackson and Henry are among the top 10 in rushing yards this season. These teams last met in Week 4 of 2022, with the Bills edging out a 23-20 win, where both Jackson and Allen rushed for over 70 yards in a hard-fought contest.

PICK – OVER 46.5 TOTAL POINTS