NFL – Monday Night Picks – Week 3

nfl monday night picks

*These free NFL picks and NFL player prop picks are done the previous game day, adjust selections should spreads and lineups change.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ BUFFALO BILLS

Monday, September 23rd

TEAM TRENDS

  • The Bills have won their last 10 home games vs teams on a losing streak.
  • The Bills’ last 4 home games have gone overs.

WIN/LOSS

TEAM W L HOME ROAD
JAX 0 2 0-1-0 0-1-0
BUF 2 0 1-0-0 1-0-0

SEASON POINTS +/-

TEAM PPG OPPG DIFF TOT.AV.
JAX 15.0 19.0 -4.0 34.0
BUF 32.5 19.0 13.5 51.5

PICKS ATS

SPREAD POINTS RESULT
BUF UNDER BUF
-5.0 45.5 47-10
NFL PLAYER PROP BETS - HERE

PLAYER TRENDS

  • Khalil Shakir has a TD in each of the Bills’ last 3 home games.
  • Travis Etienne has a TD in he Jaguars’ last 5 games as road underdogs.
  • Josh Allen has at least 1 TD in 7 of the Bills’ last 8 home games.
  • Dalton Kincaid has a TD in the Bills’ last 2 Monday games at Highmark Stadium.
  • Trevor Lawrence has 257+ passing yards in 7 of the Jaguars’ last 9 games vs AFC opponents.
  • Dalton Kincaid has 45+ receiving yards in 4 of the Bills’ last 5 games as favs.
  • Josh Allen has 39+ rushing yards in the Bills’ last 4 home games.
  • The Bills have been the first to 15 points in 10 of their last 11 games.
  • James Cook has 16+ rush attempts in the Bills’ last 6 home games.
  • Josh Allen has not thrown an interception in the Bills’ last 4 games.

BEST ROI BETS

  1. Jacksonville 3Q Spread – Covered the 3Q Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.75 Units / 33% ROI)
  2. Buffalo 3Q Moneyline – Hit the 3Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 19 games (+9.95 Units / 30% ROI)
  3. Jacksonville 3Q Game Total Over – Hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.40 Units / 33% ROI)

MATCHUP PREVIEW

The Bills host the winless Jags at Highmark Stadium on Monday night, with both teams trending in opposite directions.

The Bills are riding high after a 31-10 win over the Dolphins in Week 2, where James Cook found the end zone three times, and the defense stepped up with three interceptions, one of which was returned for a touchdown.

On the other hand, the Jaguars limped to an 18-13 loss to the Cleveland Browns, with Trevor Lawrence taking four sacks and completing just 14 of 30 passes.

The Bills’ strong passing attack, averaging 237.6 passing yards per game since last season with a 67.0% completion rate, could pose issues for the Jaguars, who rank near the bottom in passing defense, allowing 240.4 yards per game.

Jacksonville’s recent form, losing seven of their last eight games, sets them up for a tough matchup against the undefeated Bills.

PICK – BUFFALO -5.0

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS

Monday, September 23rd

TEAM TRENDS

  • The Bengals have won their last 9 games vs NFC teams.
  • 6 of the Bengals’ last 8 games have gone overs.

WIN/LOSS

TEAM W L HOME ROAD
WAS 1 1 1-0-0 0-1-0
CIN 0 2 0-1-0 0-1-0

SEASON POINTS +/-

TEAM PPG OPPG DIFF TOT.AV.
WAS 20.5 27.5 -7.0 48.0
CIN 17.5 21.0 -3.5 38.5

PICKS ATS

SPREAD POINTS RESULT
WAS OVER WAS
+7.5 47.0 38-33
NFL PLAYER PROP BETS - HERE

PLAYER TRENDS

  • Zack Moss has a TD in 3 of his last 4 games as a home fav.
  • Austin Ekeler has a TD in 4 of his last 5 Monday games.
  • Brian Robinson has a TD in 7 of his last 8 road games.
  • Tee Higgins has a TD in 2 of his last 3 games.
  • Ja’Marr Chase has 141+ receiving yards in the Bengals’ last 2 Monday games.
  • Brian Robinson has 3+ receptions in the Commanders’ last 3 games as underdogs.
  • Joe Burrow has 2+ TDs in 6 of his last 8 games.
  • The Commanders have lost the 1st quarter in their last 9 games.
  • Joe Burrow has 26+ completions in 4 of his last 5 games vs NFC opponents.
  • Tee Higgins has 61+ receiving yards in each of his last 4 games as a fav.

BEST ROI BETS

  1. Washington 3Q Spread – Covered the 3Q Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.95 Units / 34% ROI)
  2. Cincinnati to Score First (Home Games) – Scored first in 5 of their last 6 home games (+3.95 Units / 46% ROI)
  3. Washington 2H Moneyline (Away Games) – Hit the 2H Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 away games (+3.85 Units / 53% ROI)

MATCHUP PREVIEW

The Commanders and Bengals meet for the first time since Week 11, 2020, when they face off at Paycor Stadium on Monday night.

The Bengals are still after their first win of the season after a crushing 26-25 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 2, where a defensive pass interference call on 4th and 16 extended the Chiefs’ game-winning drive.

The Commanders made history in their 21-18 win over the Giants, becoming the first team to win a game in regulation while scoring no touchdowns and allowing three.

They leaned heavily on their ground game, racking up 215 rushing yards, their best performance on the ground since Week 18, 2021.

The Bengals will look to rebound and hope to regain star receiver Tee Higgins, who has yet to play this season due to a hamstring injury.

PICK – OVER 47.0 TOTAL POINTS

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