NBA Finals – Game 1 – Cleveland @ Golden State

Tonight’s NBA Finals Picks

NBA Finals – Game 1

Houston @ Golden State, Oracle Arena

*Original betting lines and lineups taken game morning, adjust accordingly.

The original lines for these NBA Playoff picks are taken a couple of hours prior to the tip-off, so adjust your picks accordingly should a line change.

Confidence out of 1-5


NBA Finals – Game 1


Houston @ Golden State

  • NBA Finals – Game 1

Trends

  • Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
  • Under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Houston.
  • Under is 5-0 in Golden State’s last 5 overall.
  • Under is 4-0 in Cleveland’s last 4 road games.
  • Cleveland are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Golden State.
  • Golden State have won 7 of the last 8 meetings.

Season Series

16.01.18 Cleveland Golden State 108 : 118
26.12.17 Golden State Cleveland 99 : 92

Win/Loss 

TEAM W L HOME AWAY
Golden State 58 24 29-12 29-12
Cleveland 50 32 29-12 21-20

Season Points +/- 

TEAM PPG OPP PPG DIFF
Golden State 113.5 107.5 +6.0
Cleveland 110.9 109.9 +0.9

Picks against the spread

Spread O/U Points  Result
Golden State Under Golden State
-11.5 214.5 (124-114 1OT) / (107-107)

It’s no surprise that it’s again a Warriors v Cavs showdown, it’s the story of how they got here that’s surprising.

Cleveland traded Kyrie Irving and then the 4 new recruits (Crowder, Thomas, Rose and D-Wade) ended up being George Hill, Rodney Hood, Jordan Clarkson and Larry Nance Jr. Cleveland were average during the season, finishing 4th. Their Playoffs didn’t start convincingly either, needing 7 games and a buzzer beater to get past the Pacers and an injury-riddled Celtics.

The Cavs have lost two of the last three NBA Finals Series against the Warriors, and the bookmaker odds of -1200 for the Warriors to win the Finals makes them the shortest price favorites to win an NBA Finals Series in the last 16 seasons.

There have been a bit of negative chatter around regarding the outcome of another Cavs vs Warriors Finals matchup, but the King is having none of that –

“Teams have had their opportunities to beat the Cavs over the last four years, and teams have had the opportunities to beat the Warriors over the last four years,” Lebron told reporters. “If you want to see somebody else in the postseason, then you got to beat them.”

But for Game 1…

K-Love looks to be a game-time decision due to not yet passing the concussion protocol, and his addition would take some of the load off Lebron, who’s averaging 34 pts, 9.2 rbs and 8.8 asts through the Playoffs. With Iguodala still sitting with a leg injury, Golden State are down the player who typically plays Lebron’s shadow on defense.

“Well, he was MVP of the series in 2015, largely because he took that role on of guarding LeBron, but also because of what he did offensively,” Steve Kerr told reporters. “He’s doing a little bit better. Some encouraging signs, but we have ruled him out for Game 1.”

Lebron will be guarded by a turnstile of defenders including Durant, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson and Shaun Livingston.

The -12.0 line for the Warriors is very high for a Game 1 of the NBA Finals, but probably justified given the overall picture.

Cleveland’s deficiencies and reliance on Lebron will shine bright tonight. Warriors to get it done easily.

Best Bet  =  Golden State -11.5

Player Prop = Klay Thompson Over 3.5 made threestick