Understanding advanced NBA statistical metrics can provide a nice edge for NBA punters.
One metric that is often spoken about is the “True Shooting Percentage” (TS%), which offers a detailed view of a player’s shooting efficiency by accounting for field goals, 3-point field goals, and free throws.
Let’s take a good look, and eliminate some confusion around TS%, its calculation, historical context, and application in NBA betting, highlighted by specific game examples.
Understanding True Shooting Percentage
True Shooting Percentage measures a player’s efficiency at shooting the ball.
It’s considered more accuate than traditional measures like field goal percentage, because it includes the value of 3-pointers and free throws.
The formula for TS% is:
Points
÷
2x ( FG Attempts + 0.44 x FT Attempts)
This formula considers that not all shots are created equal. For instance, a three-pointer is worth more than a two-pointer, and the ability to draw fouls and score from the free-throw line is a crucial skill.
Where did True Shooting % come from?
The concept of TS% was developed as part of the analytics movement in sports, which gained momentum in the early 2000s.
Dean Oliver, a pioneer in sports analytics, popularized the use of this metric in his book “Basketball on Paper”.
As analytics took a more prominent role in NBA team strategies, metrics like True Shooting Percentage became essential in evaluating player performance beyond traditional stats.
TS% examples from NBA games
To show the use of TS%, consider a hypothetical game where Player A scores 30 points on 10-of-15 shooting from the field, including 5-of-8 from three-point range, and 5-of-5 from the free-throw line.
True Shooting Percentage (TS%) Examples
Player A’s TS% Calculation:
- Points Scored: 30
- Field Goal Attempts (FGA): 15
- Three-Point Field Goals (Made out of attempts): 5-of-8
- Free Throws (FT): 5-of-5
Player B’s TS% Calculation:
- Points Scored: 30
- Field Goal Attempts (FGA): 25
- Three-Point Field Goals (Made out of attempts): 3-of-10
- Free Throws (FT): 7-of-10
By comparing the TS% of both players, bettors can see that despite scoring the same number of points, Player A was much more efficient, highlighting the importance of TS% in evaluating shooting performance.
Uses in NBA Betting
For bettors, TS% can be useful when evaluating the outcome of games. High TS% players are usually more reliable scorers, which can influence over/under bets and point spread.
For example, if a leading scorer with a high TS% is facing a team with poor defensive efficiency, it might indicate a higher scoring game, affecting total points bets.
Additionally, understanding team TS% trends can help in predicting outcomes. If a team improves its TS% significantly, it might be undervalued by bookmakers, presenting profitable betting opportunities.
NBA True Shooting Percentage
True Shooting Percentage is not just a number but a lens through which the game can be understood more deeply from a betting perspective. It indicates a player’s scoring efficiency in one metric, providing a clear picture of their scoring ability.
For NBA bettors, integrating TS% into their betting strategy can lead to more informed decisions, better bets, and potentially higher returns.
As the game of basketball evolves with a greater emphasis on efficiency, metrics like TS% will continue to grow in importance, shaping betting strategies and the analysis of player performance.
Check out some more NBA advanced stats like Player Efficiency Rating, Usage Rate and Box Plus/Minus.
