The NBA Western Finals are perfectly poised at 2-2 as the series shifts back to Oklahoma City for a pivotal Game 5. Momentum swung hard in Game 4 with San Antonio’s defensive response, but OKC now regain home court in what is a best-of-three.
SAN ANTONIO SPURS @ OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
Odds: SA $2.55 / OKC $1.54
West Finals – Game 5 (Series tied 2-2)
Oklahoma City finished 64-18 with a league-best +11.1 differential, allowing just 107.9 OPPG. San Antonio went 62-20 with a +8.3 margin and averaged 119.8 PPG. OKC were dominant at home (34-7), while the Spurs proved resilient on the road (29-12). Pace and turnover margin have dictated this matchup.
WIN/LOSS
| TEAM | W | L | HOME | ROAD |
| SA | 62 | 20 | 32-8 | 30-12 |
| OKC | 64 | 18 | 34-7 | 30-11 |
SEASON POINTS +/-
| TEAM | PPG | OPPG | DIFF | TOT.AV. |
| SA | 119.8 | 111.5 | +8.3 | 231.3 |
| OKC | 119.0 | 107.9 | +11.1 | 226.9 |
PICKS ATS
| SPREAD | POINTS | RESULT |
| SA | UNDER | SA |
| +5.5 | 216.5 | 119-81 |
The Western Conference Finals are now effectively a best-of-three after the San Antonio Spurs stunned the Oklahoma City Thunder 103-82 in Game 4 to level the series at 2-2. San Antonio Spurs dominated defensively, forcing 20 turnovers and holding Oklahoma City to just 33.0% shooting from the field.
Wembanyama starred with 33 points, five assists and three blocks, while the absence of key Thunder guards clearly impacted Oklahoma City’s offensive flow. Game 5 now shifts back to Paycom Center, where the Thunder hold a dominant 17-2 record across their last 19 home games.
Team Trends
- The Thunder have won each of their last 9 playoff games following a loss.
- Each of the Spurs’ last 7 Western Conference Finals games as underdogs have gone OVER the total points line.
- The Spurs have covered the line in 4 of their last 5 games as underdogs.
- The Spurs have won the first half in 3 of their last 4 games as underdogs.
Player Trends
- Luguentz Dort – Made 2+ threes in each of the Thunder’s last 4 Game 5s of a playoff series.
- De’Aaron Fox – Made 2+ threes in each of his last 6 appearances at Paycom Center.
- De’Aaron Fox – Recorded 4+ assists in 18 of his last 19 road games against Western Conference opponents.
- Cason Wallace – Recorded 2+ assists in 14 of the Thunder’s last 15 playoff home games against Western Conference opponents.
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – Recorded 8+ assists in each of the Thunder’s last 5 Western Conference Finals home games.
- Stephon Castle – Recorded 8+ assists in each of the Spurs’ last 3 road games against the Thunder.
- Keldon Johnson – Scored 10+ points in each of the Spurs’ last 5 games as underdogs against Western Conference opponents.
- Chet Holmgren – Scored 15+ points in 10 of his last 11 home appearances after playing under 30 minutes in the previous game.
- Stephon Castle – Scored 17+ points in each of the Spurs’ last 7 games as underdogs against the Thunder.
- De’Aaron Fox – Scored 17+ points in each of his 8 previous playoff road games.
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – Scored 30+ points in each of the Thunder’s last 4 Game 5s of a playoff series.
- Chet Holmgren – Recorded 6+ rebounds in 18 of the Thunder’s last 19 playoff games as favourites.
- Isaiah Hartenstein – Recorded 8+ rebounds in 9 of the Thunder’s last 10 playoff home games.
- De’Aaron Fox – Recorded 4+ rebounds in 7 of his last 8 road appearances.
- Stephon Castle – Recorded 4+ rebounds in each of the Spurs’ last 9 games as underdogs.
PICK – Oklahoma City Thunder ML ($1.54)
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