Tonight’s Round 1 NBA Playoff Tips – Monday, 20th April

Game 2 action tips off in the East and West with higher seeds looking to extend early series control. Cleveland ($1.28), New York ($1.46) and Denver ($1.41) all defended home court in Game 1 and now aim to tighten their grip.

Expect sharper adjustments, slower playoff tempo stretches and desperate responses from underdogs trying to avoid 0-2 holes.

TORONTO RAPTORS @ CLEVELAND CAVALIERS

Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland, OH
Time: 9:00 AM
Odds: TOR $3.80 / CLE $1.28

East 1st Round – Game 2 (CLE leads 1-0)

Cleveland’s +4.1 differential and 27-14 home record underline their control in this matchup. Toronto’s +2.8 differential keeps them competitive, but their defensive consistency hasn’t matched Cleveland’s balance. With Game 1 already secured, expect the Cavaliers to lean further into half-court defense and depth scoring.

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/-

PICKS ATS

Team Trends

• Cavaliers have won Game 2 in 11 straight playoff series when leading 1-0
• Raptors have failed to cover 8 of last 9 as road underdogs
• Cavaliers’ last 5 First Round home games have gone OVER
• Raptors have lost both halves in 8 straight as road underdogs

Player Trends

• Donovan Mitchell (Cavaliers) , 30+ points in last 8 playoff home games
• Donovan Mitchell (Cavaliers) , 4+ assists in 14 of last 15 home games
• James Harden (Cavaliers) , 8+ assists in last 4 playoff home games
• James Harden (Cavaliers) , 22+ points in last 5 vs Raptors
• Evan Mobley (Cavaliers) , 15+ points in 8 of last 9 home games
• Evan Mobley (Cavaliers) , 8+ rebounds in 11 of last 12 vs Raptors
• Jarrett Allen (Cavaliers) , 10+ points in last 17 as favourite
• Jarrett Allen (Cavaliers) , 8+ rebounds in last 5 Game 2s
• RJ Barrett (Raptors) , 15+ points in last 11 games
• RJ Barrett (Raptors) , 2+ threes in 5 of last 6 playoff games
• Scottie Barnes (Raptors) , 6+ assists in 8 of last 9 road games

Game Preview

Game 1 told you almost everything you need to know about how this series is likely to play out.

Cleveland’s advantage inside was decisive. Winning the paint battle comfortably while also getting meaningful production from the bench highlights a key structural edge. This isn’t just about star power, it’s about depth and repeatable offense. With Mitchell controlling scoring bursts and Harden orchestrating possessions, the Cavaliers can generate quality looks without needing to force tempo.

Toronto’s issue is that their strengths don’t directly counter Cleveland’s. Barnes and Barrett can produce, but much of their offense comes through tougher, contested possessions. That becomes even more problematic when they’re consistently losing second-chance opportunities and interior positioning.

The Game 2 trend is also important. Cleveland historically respond well when up 1-0, and more importantly, they’ve shown the ability to tighten control rather than ease off in these spots. That aligns with the pattern of Toronto struggling to stay competitive across both halves on the road.

The total leaning OVER makes sense again if Cleveland dictate inside and force efficient scoring, but the bigger takeaway is control. Cleveland aren’t reliant on variance, they’re winning through structure, rebounding, and shot quality.

Unless Toronto find a way to neutralise the paint, this likely follows a very similar script to Game 1.

PICK – OVER 222.5 TOTAL POINTS

ATLANTA HAWKS @ NEW YORK KNICKS

Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
Time: 10:00 AM
Odds: ATL $2.80 / NY $1.46

East 1st Round – Game 2 (NY leads 1-0)

New York’s +6.4 differential and 30-10 home mark give them a clear edge. Atlanta’s 118.5 PPG keeps them live offensively, but defensive lapses (116.0 OPPG) remain costly in playoff settings. Expect New York to slow pace and lean into physical half-court sets again.

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/-

PICKS ATS

Team Trends

• Knicks have won 11 straight as favourites vs Eastern opponents
• Knicks have covered 6 straight games
• Hawks have lost the 1st half in 10 straight playoff road games
• 11 of Hawks’ last 12 First Round road games have gone UNDER

Player Trends

• Jalen Brunson (Knicks) , 28+ points in 10 of last 11 First Round games
• Jalen Brunson (Knicks) , 6+ assists in last 13 First Round games
• Karl-Anthony Towns (Knicks) , 20+ points in last 8 playoff games
• Karl-Anthony Towns (Knicks) , 10+ rebounds in 12 of last 13 as favourite
• Josh Hart (Knicks) , 4+ assists in last 11 First Round games
• Josh Hart (Knicks) , 8+ rebounds in last 6 home vs Hawks
• OG Anunoby (Knicks) , 16+ points in 7 of last 8 playoff games
• Nickeil Alexander-Walker (Hawks) , 20+ points in 8 of last 9 road games
• Onyeka Okongwu (Hawks) , 15+ points in last 4 road games
• Onyeka Okongwu (Hawks) , 8+ rebounds in last 5 road vs Knicks
• C.J. McCollum (Hawks) , 15+ points in last 20 playoff games

Game Preview

Game 1 reinforced a key theme in this matchup, that New York don’t need to outshoot teams to beat them, they just out-execute them.

The Knicks controlled the details. Free throws, second-chance points, and overall physicality were the difference, and those are the exact areas that tend to carry over game-to-game in a playoff series. Brunson and Towns give them reliable scoring, but it’s the supporting structure through Hart, rebounding, and effort plays that creates separation.

Atlanta have scoring, but it’s coming in a less sustainable way. Players like Alexander-Walker and McCollum can generate points, but much of it relies on perimeter shot-making rather than consistent offensive creation. Against a disciplined defense, that tends to flatten out over time.

The strongest signal here is the UNDER trend. Hawks playoff road games consistently slow down, and Game 1 followed that script outside of brief scoring bursts. New York are comfortable playing in that environment, controlling tempo and limiting transition opportunities.

The first-half trend also matters. The Knicks have repeatedly put teams on the back foot early, and Atlanta have struggled to respond in these spots. If that pattern holds, this becomes another game where New York dictate the pace from start to finish.

Everything points toward a controlled, lower-variance game where structure wins out again.

PICK – NEW YORK -5.5

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES @ DENVER NUGGETS

Ball Arena, Denver, CO
Time: 12:30 PM
Odds: MIN $3.00 / DEN $1.41

West 1st Round – Game 2 (DEN leads 1-0)

Denver’s +5.2 differential and 28-13 home record underline their strength. Minnesota’s +3.4 differential shows competitiveness, but altitude and Denver’s offensive efficiency (122.1 PPG) remain decisive. Expect Minnesota to adjust defensively, yet Denver’s depth advantage should hold.

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/-

PICKS ATS

Team Trends

• Nuggets have won 13 straight games
• Nuggets have covered 6 straight playoff home games
• 10 of Nuggets’ last 12 playoff home games have gone UNDER
• Underdogs have won the 1st quarter in last 4 Nuggets playoff games

Player Trends

• Nikola Jokic (Nuggets) , 25+ points in last 7 vs Timberwolves
• Nikola Jokic (Nuggets) , 11+ assists in last 6 vs Northwest opponents
• Nikola Jokic (Nuggets) , 12+ rebounds in last 16 as favourite
• Jamal Murray (Nuggets) , 30+ points in last 3 home playoff games vs Timberwolves
• Christian Braun (Nuggets) , 2+ threes in last 6 playoff games
• Christian Braun (Nuggets) , 4+ rebounds in last 19 home vs winning teams
• Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves) , 7+ assists in last 4 playoff road vs Nuggets
• Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves) , 6+ rebounds in last 10 playoff road games
• Julius Randle (Timberwolves) , 5+ assists in last 4 Game 2s
• Jaden McDaniels (Timberwolves) , 16+ points in last 8 games
• Rudy Gobert (Timberwolves) , 10+ rebounds in last 6 vs West opponents

Game Preview

Game 1 highlighted the core issue for Minnesota, they couldn’t match Denver’s efficiency in the key margins.

The free throw gap and second-chance points weren’t random. That’s where Denver consistently separate, especially at home. Jokic controls the game in a way that removes volatility, dictating tempo, creating high-percentage looks, and cleaning up possessions on the glass. When that’s paired with Murray’s scoring bursts, the Nuggets become extremely difficult to contain over four quarters.

Minnesota do have counters. Edwards’ playmaking has taken a step forward, and their size with Gobert gives them a pathway to stay competitive on the boards. But the concern is sustainability, especially with Edwards carrying both scoring and creation responsibilities. If his efficiency dips or his availability is limited, their offense becomes far easier to contain.

The UNDER trend is important here. Playoff games in Denver tend to slow into half-court execution, and that plays directly into the Nuggets’ strengths. They don’t need pace to win, they need control, and they consistently get it.

The first-quarter trend suggests Minnesota may start well again, but Denver’s ability to adjust and grind teams down over the middle quarters is where the separation usually happens.

PICK – DENVER -6.5