*These NBA tips and player prop picks are done the previous game day. Adjust selections should spreads and lineups change.
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS @ MIAMI HEAT
Kaseya Center, Miami, FL
East 1st Round – Game 3 (Cleveland leads series 2-0)
Team Trends
- Over has hit in 8 of the Heat’s last 9 games
- Heat have lost 6 straight playoff home games
- Cavaliers have won the 1st half in 9 straight vs. Heat in the East First Round
- Heat have covered the line in 7 of their last 8 games as underdogs
WIN/LOSS
| TEAM | W | L | HOME | ROAD |
| CLE | 64 | 18 | 34-7 | 30-11 |
| MIA | 37 | 45 | 19-22 | 17-23 |
SEASON POINTS AVERAGE
| TEAM | PPG | OPPG | DIFF | TOTAL |
| CLE | 121.9 | 112.4 | +9.5 | 234.3 |
| MIA | 110.6 | 110.0 | +0.6 | 220.6 |
SEASON SERIES
| DATE | RESULT |
| Dec 9, 2024 | CLE 113 @ MIA 122 |
| Jan 30, 2025 | CLE 126 @ MIA 106 |
| Mar 6, 2025 | MIA 107 @ CLE 112 |
| GAME 1 | MIA 100 @ CLE 121 |
| GAME 2 | MIA 112 @ CLE 121 |
PICKS ATS
| SPREAD | POINTS | RESULT |
| CLE | OVER | |
| -5.5 | 213.5 |
Player Props:
- Davion Mitchell has made 2+ threes in 7 straight games as Heat underdogs
- De’Andre Hunter has made 2+ threes in 7 of last 8 games
- Davion Mitchell has 6+ assists in 6 straight games as Heat underdogs
- Donovan Mitchell has 4+ assists in 12 straight games vs. Heat
- Darius Garland has 6+ assists in 4 straight road games
- Tyler Herro has 30+ points in 4 of last 5 games vs. East opponents
- Donovan Mitchell has 30+ points in 4 straight East First Round games
- Bam Adebayo has 20+ points in 11 of last 12 playoff games
- Davion Mitchell has 15+ points in 4 straight Heat games
- Darius Garland has 20+ points in 4 straight games
- Andrew Wiggins has 6+ rebounds in 7 of last 8 playoff home games
- Kel’el Ware has 10+ rebounds in 4 straight games as Heat home underdogs
- Donovan Mitchell has 6+ rebounds in 5 of last 6 playoff games
- Evan Mobley has 12 rebounds in 3 of last 4 road games vs. losing teams
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The Heat return home to Kaseya Center for Game 3 of their Eastern First Round series against the Cavaliers, trailing 2-0. Cleveland took Game 2 with a 121-112 win at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, extending their winning streak over the Heat to four games.
The Cavaliers made the difference from beyond the arc, shooting 22-of-45 (48.9%) from three compared to Miami’s 16-of-45 (35.6%), and outscoring the Heat 19-13 in points off turnovers. Donovan Mitchell led the way for Cleveland with 30 points, 6 rebounds, and 7 threes, while Tyler Herro paced Miami with 33 points and 6 rebounds.
Miami has now lost 9 of its last 10 playoff games and faces a must-win situation at home. Cleveland’s Darius Garland is listed as questionable heading into Saturday’s matchup.
PICK – OVER 213.5 TOTAL POINTS
OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER @ MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
FedExForum, Memphis, TN
West 1st Round – Game 4 (OKC leads series 3-0)
Team Trends
- Grizzlies have won the 1st quarter in 6 of their last 7 playoff home games
- Thunder have won 12 straight games vs. Grizzlies
- Under has hit in each of the last 6 games between the Thunder and Grizzlies
- Home team has covered in each of the Grizzlies’ last 8 playoff games
WIN/LOSS
| TEAM | W | L | HOME | ROAD |
| OKC | 68 | 14 | 35-6 | 32-8 |
| MEM | 48 | 34 | 26-15 | 22-19 |
SEASON POINTS AVERAGE
| TEAM | PPG | OPPG | DIFF | TOTAL |
| OKC | 120.5 | 107.6 | +12.9 | 228.1 |
| MEM | 121.7 | 116.9 | +4.8 | 238.6 |
SEASON SERIES
| DATE | RESULT |
| Dec 30, 2024 | MEM 106 @ OKC 130 |
| Feb 9, 2025 | OKC 125 @ MEM 112 |
| Mar 6, 2025 | OKC 120 @ MEM 103 |
| Mar 28, 2025 | MEM 104 @ OKC 125 |
| GAME 1 | MEM 80 @ OKC 131 |
| GAME 2 | MEM 99 @ OKC 118 |
| GAME 3 | OKC 114 @ MEM 108 |
PICKS ATS
| SPREAD | POINTS | RESULT |
| MEM | UNDER | |
| +15.5 | 221.5 |
The Thunder will look to complete a sweep of their West First Round series when they visit the Grizzlies at FedExForum.
Oklahoma City pulled off a historic comeback in Game 3, rallying from 29 points down to win 114-108, the second-largest comeback in playoff history, and extended their winning streak over Memphis to 12 games.
Turnovers proved crucial once again, with Memphis committing 16 giveaways that led to 21 Thunder points. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander paced Oklahoma City with 31 points and 8 assists, while Jalen Williams chipped in 26 points. Scotty Pippen Jr. stood out for the Grizzlies, scoring 28 points with 6 threes and 3 steals.
The Grizzlies now face an early exit without Ja Morant, who suffered a hip injury in the first half of Game 3 and has been ruled out, a devastating blow to Memphis’ hopes of extending the series.
PICK – UNDER 221.5 TOTAL POINTS
DENVER NUGGETS @ LA CLIPPERS
Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA
West 1st Round – Game 4 (Clippers lead series 2-1)
Team Trends
- Under has hit in 9 of the last 10 playoff games between the Nuggets and Clippers
- Clippers have won 10 straight games as favourites
- Clippers have won the 1st half in 10 straight games
- Nuggets have failed to cover the line in 5 straight playoff games
WIN/LOSS
| TEAM | W | L | HOME | ROAD |
| DEN | 50 | 32 | 26-15 | 24-17 |
| LAC | 50 | 32 | 30-11 | 20-21 |
SEASON POINTS AVERAGE
| TEAM | PPG | OPPG | DIFF | TOTAL |
| DEN | 120.8 | 116.9 | +3.9 | 237.7 |
| LAC | 112.9 | 108.2 | +4.7 | 221.1 |
Here is the full updated season series table:
SEASON SERIES
| DATE | RESULT |
| Oct 27, 2024 | DEN 104 @ LAC 109 |
| Dec 2, 2024 | LAC 126 @ DEN 122 |
| Dec 14, 2024 | DEN 120 @ LAC 98 |
| Jan 9, 2025 | DEN 126 @ LAC 103 |
| GAME 1 | LAC 110 @ DEN 112 (OT) |
| GAME 2 | LAC 105 @ DEN 102 |
| GAME 3 | DEN 83 @ LAC 117 |
PICKS ATS
| SPREAD | POINTS | RESULT |
| DEN | UNDER | |
| +6.0 | 212.5 |
The Clippers will look to build on their swagger when they host the Nuggets for Game 4 of their Western First Round series at Intuit Dome.
The Clippers dominated Game 3 with a 117-83 blowout win, taking a 2-1 series lead and extending their home winning streak over Denver to four games.
Defense was the key, as the Clippers forced 16 Denver turnovers and held the Nuggets to just 7-of-26 (26.9%) shooting from three. Kawhi Leonard led the charge with a 21-point, 11-rebound double-double, while James Harden contributed 20 points, 6 rebounds, and 9 assists. Nikola Jokic paced Denver with a 23-point, 13-rebound, 13-assist triple-double.
The Clippers have now won 14 of their last 15 home games. Denver may also face additional challenges, with Michael Porter Jr. and Russell Westbrook both listed as questionable for Game 4.
PICK – DENVER +6.0
HOUSTON ROCKETS @ GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
Chase Center, San Francisco, CA
West 1st Round – Game 3 (Series tied 1-1)
Team Trends
- Warriors have won 15 of their last 16 playoff home games after a loss
- Under has hit in each of the last 6 games between Rockets and Warriors
- Warriors have won the 1st quarter in 8 of last 9 playoff home games vs. Rockets
- Rockets have failed to cover the line in 5 of their last 6 playoff game
WIN/LOSS
| TEAM | W | L | HOME | ROAD |
| HOU | 52 | 30 | 29-12 | 23-17 |
| GS | 48 | 34 | 24-17 | 24-17 |
SEASON POINTS AVERAGE
| TEAM | PPG | OPPG | DIFF | TOTAL |
| HOU | 114.3 | 109.8 | +4.5 | 224.1 |
| GS | 113.8 | 110.5 | +3.3 | 224.3 |
Here is the corrected and full season series table:
SEASON SERIES
| DATE | RESULT |
| Oct 27, 2024 | DEN 104 @ LAC 109 |
| Dec 2, 2024 | LAC 126 @ DEN 122 |
| Dec 14, 2024 | DEN 120 @ LAC 98 |
| Jan 9, 2025 | DEN 126 @ LAC 103 |
| GAME 1 | LAC 110 @ DEN 112 (OT) |
| GAME 2 | LAC 105 @ DEN 102 |
| GAME 3 | DEN 83 @ LAC 117 |
PICKS ATS
| SPREAD | POINTS | RESULT |
| GSW | UNDER | |
| -3.5 | 203.5 |
Golden State return home to Chase Center to host Houston for Game 3 of their Western First Round series, with the series tied 1-1. Houston evened things up with a 109-94 win in Game 2 at Toyota Center, but the Rockets could be without Jimmy Butler, who exited early with a glute injury and is questionable for Game 3.
Houston’s advantage came inside, outscoring Golden State 46-28 in the paint, while also dominating the boards with a 47-33 rebounding edge. Jalen Green led the charge with a standout performance, scoring 38 points, grabbing 3 steals, and hitting 8 threes to match his career high.
The Rockets have now won 20 of their last 21 games when Green scores 30 or more, and they’ll look to ride that form as the series shifts to San Francisco.
PICK – GOLDEN STATE -3.5
