1st Round – NBA Playoff Picks – Mon, 29th April

*These NBA Playoff picks are done the morning of game day, adjust picks should spreads and lineups change.

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BOSTON @ MIAMI

EASTERN CONFERENCE 1ST ROUND – GAME 4

BOSTON LEADS 2-1

TEAM TRENDS

• The Heat have covered their last 9 games after a loss.
• The Heat have lost their last 14 games as home underdogs.
• The Heat’s last 6 games as home underdogs went Unders.
• The Celtics have won the first quarter in their last 4 road games against the Heat.

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/-

SEASON MATCHUPS

BOSTON 3-0

PICKS ATS

THE RUB

After a series-opening 114-94 win led by Tatum’s 23 points and Derrick White’s 20, the Heat bounced back in Game 2 with a 111-101 win, shooting 53.5% from beyond the arc. However, Boston responded well in Game 3, securing a 104-84 win fueled by their stout defensive effort.

Tatum has been leading the charge for the Celtics, averaging 24.3 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 6.3 assists in the series. Jaylen Brown has provided solid support with 24 points per game, while Derrick White has contributed 16.3 points on average.

Miami’s offense, led by Bam Adebayo with 21.7 points and 8.3 rebounds per game, aims to bounce back. Tyler Herro and Jaime Jaquez Jr. have also been significant contributors, averaging 16.7 and 14 points, respectively.

With the Celtics fully healthy and the Heat dealing with injuries to key players like Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier, Boston remains focused on maintaining their defensive intensity. Brown emphasized the importance of not underestimating Miami’s potential despite their injuries, emphasizing the need to respect their capability and make them uncomfortable on the court.

PLAYER TRENDS

• Kristaps Porzingis scored 17+ points in 10 of his last 11 games against the Heat.
• Derrick White scored 15+ points in 7 of his last 8 road games.
• Jayson Tatum recorded a double-double in 8 of the Celtics’ last 9 playoff games.
• Jaylen Brown grabbed 8+ rebounds in each of the Celtics’ last 5 playoff games.
• Jaime Jaquez Jr. gave 5+ assists in each of the Heat’s last 4 home games.
• Jayson Tatum scored 29+ points in 6 of the Celtics’ last 7 Eastern First Round road games.
• Kristaps Porzingis made 2+ three-pointers in 5 of the last 6 games against the Heat.
• Caleb Martin scored 14+ points in 9 of his last 12 games against the Celtics.
• Jaime Jaquez Jr. scored 18+ points in 3 of the Heat’s last 4 home games.

PICK – BOSTON -10.0

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OKLAHOMA CITY @ NEW ORLEANS

WESTERN CONFERENCE 1ST ROUND – GAME 4

OKLAHOMA CITY LEADS 3-0

TEAM TRENDS

• The Thunder have covered their last 10 road games against the Pelicans.
• The Thunder have won their last 8 games.
• 7 of the Pelicans’ last 8 games as home underdogs went Unders.
• The Thunder have won the first quarter in 5 of their last 6 games.

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/-

SEASON MATCHUPS

OKLAHOMA CITY 2-1

PICKS ATS

THE RUB

The Thunder have seized control of their playoff series against the Pelicans, holding a 3-0 lead as they head into Game 4. In Games 2 and 3, the top-seeded Thunder showcased their dominance, outscoring the Pelicans 106-85.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the charge for OKC in Game 3 with a game-high 24 points, supported by strong performances from Jalen Williams and Josh Giddey, who each contributed 21 points. Luguentz Dort’s solid defense against Brandon Ingram, coupled with his sharpshooting from beyond the arc, has been instrumental in OKC’s success.

The Pelicans have struggled offensively, shooting just 40.3% from the field and 27.8% from three-point range in the series. Trey Murphy III emphasized the need for resilience, acknowledging the team’s shooting struggles but remaining confident in their ability to bounce back.

New Orleans coach Willie Green remains optimistic, urging his team to stay focused and prepare for the next game, determined to defy the odds and mount a comeback in the series.

PLAYER TRENDS

• Josh Giddey scored 14+ points in 7 of the Thunder’s last 8 road games.
• Luguentz Dort scored 12+ points in each of the Thunder’s last 5 road games.
• Josh Giddey grabbed 8+ rebounds in each of the Thunder’s last 4 games as road favorites.
• C.J. McCollum scored 21+ points in 6 of his last 7 playoff elimination games.
• Herb Jones scored 14+ points in 4 of the Pelicans’ last 5 games against the Thunder.
• C.J. McCollum grabbed 5+ rebounds in 5 of the Pelicans’ last 6 games against the Thunder.
• Jalen Williams scored 21+ points in each of his last 3 road games.
• Josh Giddey gave 6+ assists in each of the Thunder’s last 3 road games.
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander gave 8 assists in 3 of his last 4 games as road favorites with the Thunder.

PICK – OKLAHOMA CITY -4.5

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DENVER @ LA LAKERS

WESTERN CONFERENCE 1ST ROUND – GAME 5

DENVER LEADS 3-2

TEAM TRENDS

• The Nuggets have won their last 7 home games against the Lakers.
• The underdogs have covered 7 of the last 8 playoff games between the Lakers and Nuggets.
• The last 4 Nuggets’ home games against the Lakers went Unders.

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/-

SEASON MATCHUPS

DENVER 3-0

PICKS ATS

THE RUB

The Lakers ended nearly two seasons of struggles against Denver on Saturday night, snapping an 11-game losing streak against the defending champs across regular season and playoffs. Now, they’re eyeing a historic comeback from a 3-0 series deficit, with Game 5 in Denver looming large.

LeBron James, with 30 points in Game 4, led the charge. Teams down 3-0 have historically never won a series, but the Lakers are confident they can rewrite the narrative.

Anthony Davis had with a dominant 25-point, 23-rebound performance, showcasing the Lakers’ prowess in the paint. D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves chipped in 21 points each.

On the Nuggets’ side, Michael Porter Jr. acknowledged the Lakers’ resilience, despite their early leads often being erased. Denver’s offensive efforts have been more balanced, but Jamal Murray’s shooting struggles persist, shooting just 38.0% from the field and 20.8% from three in the series.

The pressure is on for both teams. The Lakers aim to keep their playoff hopes alive, while the Nuggets seek to end the series in front of their home fans.

PLAYER TRENDS

• Nikola Jokic has recorded a triple-double in 5 of the Nuggets’ last 6 home games against the Lakers.
• Rui Hachimura grabbed 4+ rebounds in each of his last 4 playoff elimination games.
• Anthony Davis scored 30+ points in 5 of the Lakers’ last 6 road games.
• D’Angelo Russell scored 19+ points in 4 of the Lakers’ last 5 games as underdogs.
• LeBron James scored 29+ points in each of his last 3 playoff elimination games.
• Austin Reaves made 2+ three-pointers in 7 of the Lakers’ last 9 games.
• LeBron James gave 9+ assists in 7 of the Lakers’ last 9 playoff games.

PICK – OVER 217.0 TOTAL PTS