1st Round – NBA Playoff Picks – Sun, 28th April

*These NBA Playoff picks are done the morning of game day, adjust picks should spreads and lineups change.

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NEW YORK @ PHILADELPHIA

EASTERN CONFERENCE 1ST ROUND – GAME 4

NEW YORK LEADS 3-1

TEAM TRENDS

• The 76ers have won their last 11 games as favorites.
• The Knicks’ last 7 games as underdogs went Overs.
• The 76ers 8 of their last 9 home games.
• The Knicks won the first half in their last 7 road games as underdogs against the 76ers.

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/-

SEASON MATCHUPS

NEW YORK 3-1

PICKS ATS

THE RUB

Joel Embiid powered the Philadelphia 76ers to a crucial win over the New York Knicks with a playoff career-high 50 points in Game 3, despite facing challenges from his surgically repaired left knee and a diagnosis of Bell’s palsy.

Embiid’s performance, supported by contributions from Tyrese Maxey and others, helped the Sixers secure a 125-114 win.

However, the Knicks, led by Jalen Brunson and Josh Hart, aim to bounce back in Game 4 after losing Mitchell Robinson to a sprained ankle following a flagrant foul from Embiid.

Despite the controversy, Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau emphasizes the need for his team to focus on execution and intensity from the start of the game, urging them to maintain aggression against the formidable Sixers.

PLAYER TRENDS

• Kyle Lowry scored 9+ points in his last 10 home games against the Knicks.
• Donte DiVincenzo scored 17+ points in his last 7 games after single digit scores.
• Josh Hart gave 5+ assists in 7 of the Knicks’ last 8 road games.
• Joel Embiid had a double-double in 27 of his last 30 home games.
• Jalen Brunson scored 35+ points in his last 5 road games.
• Josh Hart scored 20+ points in his last 4 games against the 76ers.
• Kelly Oubre Jr. scored 14+ points in his last 4 home games against the Knicks.
• OG Anunoby scored 16+ points in his last 4 playoff road games against the 76ers.
• Tyrese Maxey scored 27+ points in 4 of the 76ers’ last 5 home games against the Knicks.
• Josh Hart made 4 three-pointers in the Knicks’ last 3 games.

PICK – OVER 208.5 TOTAL PTS

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LA CLIPPERS @ DALLAS

WESTERN CONFERENCE 1ST ROUND – GAME 4

DALLAS LEADS 2-1

TEAM TRENDS

• The Mavericks’ last 6 games have gone Unders.
• The Mavericks have won 8 of their last 9 home games.
• The Clippers have failed to cover the spread in 5 of their last 6 games.

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/-

SEASON MATCHUPS

LA CLIPPERS 3-1

PICKS ATS

THE RUB

In this first-round playoff series between the Mavericks and the Clippers, defense has been pivotal.

Despite ranking 20th in scoring defense during the regular season, the Mavs have held the Clippers below their regular-season scoring average in consecutive wins. Game 3 saw Dallas secure a 101-90 win.

Coach Jason Kidd emphasized mental sharpness amidst the physicality. While Luka Doncic had a less efficient scoring night, Kyrie Irving’s 19 second-half points were crucial. The Clippers face uncertainty with Kawhi Leonard’s availability due to knee inflammation.

In Leonard’s absence, James Harden, Paul George, and Ivica Zubac have led, but the Mavericks’ defense limited George to seven points in Game 3. Additionally, the Clippers struggled from beyond the arc, shooting just 25.4% over two losses, contrasting with their regular-season performance.

The Mavericks’ ability to contest perimeter shots disrupted the Clippers’ offensive rhythm.

PLAYER TRENDS

• James Harden scored 21+ points in his last 9 playoff games against the Mavericks.
• Paul George grabbed 5+ rebounds in 10 of his last 11 playoff games against the Mavericks.
• Kyrie Irving had 5+ assists in his last 5 playoff home games.
• Derrick Jones Jr. scored 9+ points in 6 of the Mavericks’ last 7 home games.
• Kawhi Leonard scored 26+ points in 6 of his last 7 games at American Airlines Center against the Mavericks.
• Ivica Zubac recorded a double-double in 8 of his last 10 appearances.
• Luka Doncic scored 35+ points in 5 of the Mavericks’ last 7 home games as favorites against the Clippers.

PICK – DALLAS -5.0

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MILWAUKEE @ INDIANA

EASTERN CONFERENCE 1ST ROUND – GAME 4

INDIANA LEADS 2-1

TEAM TRENDS

• The Bucks have lost 17 of their last 18 games as road underdogs.
• The last 6 games between the Bucks and Pacers at Gainbridge Fieldhouse went Overs.
• The Pacers have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 11 playoff games.
• The Bucks have lost the first half in 10 of their last 11 road games.

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/-

SEASON MATCHUPS

INDIANA 4-1

PICKS ATS

THE RUB

In a pivotal Game 3, the Pacers edged out the injury-plagued Bucks with a thrilling 121-118 overtime win.

Despite an off-shooting night, Tyrese Haliburton’s clutch play sealed the win, earning him a triple-double with 18 points, 16 assists, and 10 rebounds. The Pacers, aiming for their first playoff series win since 2014, showcased resilience, with Myles Turner contributing 29 points and Pascal Siakam adding 17.

Milwaukee’s Khris Middleton’s 42-point effort wasn’t enough to secure the win. Concerns loom over Damian Lillard’s status tonight after a leg injury, adding to the Bucks’ injury woes, with Antetokounmpo sidelined. With uncertainties surrounding key players, both teams face significant challenges heading into Game 4.

PLAYER TRENDS

• Myles Turner made 3+ three-pointers in the Pacers’ last 4 games.
• Khris Middleton scored 29+ points in 4 of his last 5 playoff games as a road underdog.
• Tyrese Haliburton recorded 12+ assists in 4 of the Pacers’ last 5 games.
• Myles Turner scored 22+ points in the Pacers’ last 3 home games.
• Myles Turner grabbed 9+ rebounds in the Pacers’ last 3 home games.
• Khris Middleton recorded a double-double in the Bucks’ last 2 games as underdogs against the Pacers.

PICK – OVER 216.0 TOTAL PTS 

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MINNESOTA @ PHOENIX

WESTERN CONFERENCE 1ST ROUND – GAME 4

MINNESOTA LEADS 3-0

TEAM TRENDS

• The Suns have lost their last 5 playoff games.
• The Timberwolves have covered the spread in their last 5 playoff games.
• 12 of the Suns’ last 14 home games went Unders.
• The Suns have lost the first quarter in 8 of their last 9 playoff home games.

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/-

SEASON MATCHUPS

PHOENIX 3-0

PICKS ATS

THE RUB

The Timberwolves are one win away from securing their first playoff series win in 20 years, leading the Phoenix Suns 3-0 in the Western Conference first-round matchup.

Led by Anthony Edwards’ 36 points and nine rebounds in Game 3, the Timberwolves have dominated, outscoring the Suns by an average of 18 points per game. Rudy Gobert’s defensive has been pivotal, adding 19 points and 14 rebounds in the Game 3.

Minnesota’s rebounding dominance, with a commanding 50-28 edge in Game 3, has stifled Phoenix’s offensive, pushing them to settle for perimeter shots. While the Suns boast a star-studded lineup featuring Devin Booker and Bradley Beal, they face the prospect of an early postseason exit without a single win.

As the Timberwolves aim to clinch the series, they remain focused on the task at hand, understanding the challenge of closing out a series, particularly on the road. With Grayson Allen’s availability uncertain due to an ankle injury, the Suns must regroup and mount a desperate comeback to extend the series in Minneapolis.

PLAYER TRENDS

• Kevin Durant has had 4+ assists in his last 12 playoff home games.
• Bradley Beal scored 25+ points in his last 8 playoff home games.
• Kevin Durant scored 28+ points in his last 7 Game 4s.
• Karl-Anthony Towns scored 23+ points in 9 of his last 10 road games against the Suns.
• Devin Booker recorded 8+ assists in the Suns’ last 6 playoff home games.
• Anthony Edwards scored 29+ points in 6 of the Timberwolves’ last 7 playoff games.
• Nickeil Alexander-Walker scored 10+ points in 8 of the Timberwolves’ last 10 games.
• Naz Reid made 2 three-pointers in 4 of the Timberwolves’ last 5 games.
• Rudy Gobert grabbed 14+ rebounds in 6 of the Timberwolves’ last 8 games.

PICK – MINNESOTA -1.0