NBA Play-In Tournament Picks – Tuesday, 14th April

The NBA Play-In Tournament tips off with two high-stakes matchups as teams battle for postseason positioning.

In the East, the Charlotte Hornets host the Miami Heat in a 9th vs 10th elimination clash, while in the West, the Phoenix Suns welcome Portland with a playoff berth on the line.

MIAMI HEAT @ CHARLOTTE HORNETS

Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC
Time: 9:30 AM
Odds: MIA $2.80 / CHA $1.46
NBA Play-In Tournament – East (9th vs 10th)

Charlotte enters with the stronger defense, allowing just 111.2 PPG compared to Miami’s 118.5, and owns a +4.8 point differential on the season. While the Heat boast the league’s highest-scoring offense among play-in teams (120.9 PPG), their road record (17-24) raises concerns. Charlotte’s more balanced attack and defense at home give them the edge in this elimination matchup.

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/-

PICKS ATS

Team Trends

• Hornets have won 10 of their last 11 vs Southeast Division opponents
• Heat games vs division opponents have gone OVER in 7 straight
• Hornets have covered 15 of their last 20 home games
• Season series: Heat lead 3-1, but split games in Charlotte

Player Trends

• LaMelo Ball (Hornets) – 5+ threes in 5 straight games
• LaMelo Ball (Hornets) – 8+ assists in 5 of last 6 as favourite
• LaMelo Ball (Hornets) – 21+ points in last 5 home vs Heat
• Brandon Miller (Hornets) – 16+ points in 20 of last 22 home games
• Kon Knueppel (Hornets) – 22+ points in last 3 vs Heat
• Miles Bridges (Hornets) – 4+ rebounds in 15 of last 16 vs Heat
• Moussa Diabate (Hornets) – 11+ rebounds in last 3 vs Heat
• Tyler Herro (Heat) – 20+ points in last 10 vs Hornets
• Tyler Herro (Heat) – 4+ assists in last 10 road games
• Bam Adebayo (Heat) – 20+ points in last 3 games
• Bam Adebayo (Heat) – 10+ rebounds in 8 of last 9 road games
• Andrew Wiggins (Heat) – 21+ points in last 3 vs Hornets

This is a classic clash between form vs matchup history, and the edge leans toward Charlotte. While Miami won the season series, the current version of this Hornets team is playing with far more offensive rhythm and confidence, particularly at home. LaMelo Ball is dictating pace at a high level, combining elite perimeter shooting with playmaking, while Brandon Miller and Knueppel provide consistent secondary scoring that prevents defensive overloading.

Miami’s production is far more concentrated. Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo continue to deliver, but the offense can stagnate when secondary options don’t step up. Against a Hornets team pushing pace and shooting volume from deep, that becomes a problem,  especially given the recent OVER trend in Heat division games.

Charlotte’s ability to stretch the floor and generate high-volume perimeter looks is the key difference. If LaMelo continues his current shooting form, Miami will struggle to keep up without matching that scoring output possession-for-possession.

The game script points toward higher pace, scoring runs, and Charlotte controlling tempo, particularly at home where they’ve been reliable.

PICK – Charlotte Hornets -5.5 

PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS @ PHOENIX SUNS

Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ
Time: 12:00 PM
Odds: POR $2.35 / PHX $1.62
NBA Play-In Tournament – West (7th vs 8th)

Phoenix hosts this critical play-in matchup with the statistical edge, boasting a positive point differential (+1.5) and a strong home record (25-16). Portland arrives in solid recent form (7-3 last 10) but carries a near-neutral differential (-0.3) and a losing road record. The Suns’ defense and half-court execution should prove decisive in a playoff-style environment.

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/-

PICKS ATS

Team Trends

• Trail Blazers have lost 15 of their last 16 games as underdogs
• Suns vs Blazers has gone UNDER in 7 of last 8 in Phoenix
• Suns have failed to cover 6 of their last 7 games
• Suns have won the 1st quarter in 6 straight home games
• Season series: Suns lead 2-1

Player Trends

• Devin Booker (Suns) – 30+ points in 5 of last 6 games
• Devin Booker (Suns) – 8+ assists in last 4 home games
• Jalen Green (Suns) – 21+ points in 7 of last 8 as favourite
• Dillon Brooks (Suns) – 22+ points in 10 of last 12 home games
• Mark Williams (Suns) – 6+ rebounds in last 12 home games
• Deni Avdija (Trail Blazers) – 25+ points in last 6 games
• Deni Avdija (Trail Blazers) – 6+ assists in last 6 as underdog
• Toumani Camara (Trail Blazers) – 3+ threes in last 7 as underdog
• Scoot Henderson (Trail Blazers) – 2+ threes in 5 of last 6 games
• Donovan Clingan (Trail Blazers) – 12+ rebounds in last 3 vs Suns

This is one of the more interesting spots on the slate because the market and form are pulling in opposite directions. Phoenix is priced as the favourite, but recent performance and underlying trends suggest this is far from comfortable.

The Suns rely heavily on Devin Booker to drive both scoring and playmaking, and while he’s in elite form, the overall team structure has been inconsistent. The 6-10 run over their last 16 games reflects a side that struggles to maintain control for four quarters, particularly against teams that can generate offence from multiple sources.

Portland, on the other hand, is playing with far more cohesion. Deni Avdija has evolved into a true primary engine, combining scoring and facilitation, while Camara and Henderson provide spacing and pace. Portland is getting production from multiple angles, whereas Phoenix is still top-heavy.

The strong UNDER trend in this matchup also signals a more controlled, half-court game. That typically favours the better-structured team rather than the more star-dependent one and right now, that’s Portland.

Add in Phoenix’s poor record against the spread recently, and this sets up as a tight, grind-style game rather than an easy Suns win.

PICK – Portland +3.5