Game 5 intensity headlines today’s slate. Boston and San Antonio look to close out their respective series at home, while New York faces a swing game with Atlanta in a tightly contested matchup.
PHILADELPHIA 76ERS @ BOSTON CELTICS
TD Garden, Boston, MA
Odds: PHI $5.00 / BOS $1.19
East 1st Round – Game 5 (BOS leads 3-1)
Boston’s +7.7 differential and elite 107.2 OPPG defense have controlled this series. Philadelphia sits at -0.2 differential overall and now faces elimination pressure on the road. Expect Boston to dictate tempo through half-court defense and perimeter shot efficiency.
WIN/LOSS
| TEAM | W | L | HOME | ROAD |
| PHI | 45 | 37 | 23-18 | 22-19 |
| BOS | 56 | 26 | 30-11 | 26-15 |
SEASON POINTS +/-
| TEAM | PPG | OPPG | DIFF | TOT.AV. |
| PHI | 115.9 | 116.1 | -0.2 | 232.0 |
| BOS | 114.9 | 107.2 | +7.7 | 222.1 |
PICKS ATS
| SPREAD | POINTS | RESULT |
| BOS | UNDER | PHI |
| -11.0 | 214.5 | 113-97 |
Team Trends
- Celtics have won 6 straight Game 5s
- Celtics have covered 7 of last 8 home games
- 76ers have lost the 1st half in 12 of last 13 as underdogs
- Celtics home games trending UNDER (9 straight vs East)
- Boston leads series 3-1 (closeout spot)
Player Trends
- Jayson Tatum (Celtics) , 25+ points in last 3 closeout games vs 76ers
- Jayson Tatum (Celtics) , 10+ rebounds in last 6 home playoff games
- Jayson Tatum (Celtics) , 9+ assists in last 3 Game 5s
- Jaylen Brown (Celtics) , 25+ points in last 21 home games vs winning teams
- Jaylen Brown (Celtics) , 2+ threes in last 8 vs 76ers at TD Garden
- Derrick White (Celtics) , 4+ assists in 9 of last 10 home games
- Tyrese Maxey (76ers) , 20+ points in last 18 games vs East
- Tyrese Maxey (76ers) , 3+ threes in 7 of last 8 vs Celtics
- Joel Embiid (76ers) , 25+ points in last 10 games
- Joel Embiid (76ers) , 10+ rebounds in last 4 playoff games
Game Preview
This is a classic closeout game spot, and Boston look ready to finish it.
Game 4 was the blueprint, elite spacing, dominant three-point shooting, and total control once they built a lead. When Boston shoot anywhere near that level, Philly simply don’t have the perimeter defence to keep up.
Philadelphia are extremely reliant on Maxey + Embiid carrying everything, and even when they both produce, Boston still have more ways to win.
The total leans UNDER again. In closeout scenarios, pace typically slows, possessions tighten, and Boston are comfortable grinding games out once ahead.
Unless Boston go ice cold from three, this shapes as another controlled performance — and potentially another blowout if they get separation early.
PICK – BOSTON -11.0
ATLANTA HAWKS @ NEW YORK KNICKS
Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
Odds: ATL $3.10 / NY $1.3
East 1st Round – Game 5 (Series tied 2-2)
New York’s +6.4 differential and dominant 30-10 home record provide a strong edge in this swing game. Atlanta’s +2.5 differential reflects competitiveness but defensive lapses (116.0 OPPG) remain a concern. Expect a physical, slower-paced contest with New York leveraging home control.
WIN/LOSS
| TEAM | W | L | HOME | ROAD |
| ATL | 46 | 36 | 24-17 | 22-19 |
| NYK | 53 | 29 | 30-10 | 22-19 |
SEASON POINTS +/-
| TEAM | PPG | OPPG | DIFF | TOT.AV. |
| ATL | 118.5 | 116.0 | +2.5 | 234.5 |
| NYK | 116.5 | 110.1 | +6.4 | 226.6 |
PICKS ATS
| SPREAD | POINTS | RESULT |
| NY | OVER | NY |
| -6.5 | 213.5 | 126-97 |
Team Trends
- Knicks have won 9 of last 10 as home favourites
- Hawks have lost the 1st half in 11 straight playoff road games
- Knicks have covered 7 of last 8 home games vs East
- 12 of Hawks’ last 13 playoff road games have gone UNDER
- Series tied 2-2 (Game 5 swing game)
Player Trends
- Jalen Brunson (Knicks) , 27+ points in 7 of last 8 playoff home games
- Jalen Brunson (Knicks) , 3+ threes in 7 of last 8 home playoff games
- Jalen Brunson (Knicks) , 6+ assists in last 10 First Round home games
- Karl-Anthony Towns (Knicks) , 20+ points in 10 of last 11 playoff games
- Karl-Anthony Towns (Knicks) , 4+ assists in 7 of last 8 games
- Josh Hart (Knicks) , 10+ rebounds in 5 of last 6 playoff home games
- OG Anunoby (Knicks) , 8+ rebounds in last 6 as favourite vs Hawks
- C.J. McCollum (Hawks) , 20+ points in 6 of last 7 playoff road games
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker (Hawks) , 20+ points in 8 of last 10 road games
- Onyeka Okongwu (Hawks) , 15+ points in last 5 road games
Game Preview
This is the defining game of the series, and everything points toward New York at home.
Game 4 showed the formula, the Knicks slowed the game down, locked in defensively, and completely took away Atlanta’s perimeter shooting (10–41 from three). That’s the key lever in this matchup.
Brunson continues to control tempo, while Towns adds another layer as both a scorer and facilitator (triple-double last game). That balance is something Atlanta can’t consistently match.
The UNDER is strongly in play again. Playoff Game 5s tend to tighten up, and Atlanta’s road trend (12 of last 13 UNDER) aligns perfectly with New York’s defensive style.
If the Knicks get control early, which trends suggest they will, this likely turns into another controlled, grind-it-out win.
PICK – NEW YORK -6.5
PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS @ SAN ANTONIO SPURS
Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX
Odds: POR $5.80 / SA $1.15
West 1st Round – Game 5 (SA leads 3-1)
San Antonio’s +8.3 differential and 32-8 home record underline their dominance. Portland enters with a near-neutral -0.3 differential and faces elimination pressure. Expect the Spurs’ offensive efficiency (119.8 PPG) and defensive consistency to close the series.
WIN/LOSS
| TEAM | W | L | HOME | ROAD |
| POR | 42 | 40 | 24-17 | 18-23 |
| SA | 62 | 20 | 32-8 | 29-12 |
SEASON POINTS +/-
| TEAM | PPG | OPPG | DIFF | TOT.AV. |
| POR | 115.5 | 115.8 | -0.3 | 231.3 |
| SA | 119.8 | 111.5 | +8.3 | 231.3 |
PICKS ATS
| SPREAD | POINTS | RESULT |
| SA | OVER | SA |
| -12.5 | 215.5 | 114-95 |
Team Trends
- Spurs have won 11 of last 12 playoff home games vs Blazers
- Spurs have won 33 of last 38 games overall
- Spurs have covered 5 of last 6 playoff games
- 5 straight Spurs home games vs Blazers have gone UNDER
- Home team has won the 1st quarter in 9 straight Spurs playoff games
- Spurs lead series 3-1 (closeout spot)
Player Trends
- Victor Wembanyama (Spurs) , 35+ points in 2 of last 3 home games
- Victor Wembanyama (Spurs) , dominant Game 4 (27 pts, 12 reb, 7 blk)
- De’Aaron Fox (Spurs) , 17+ points in last 15 vs Blazers
- De’Aaron Fox (Spurs) , 6+ assists in 6 of last 7 playoff games
- Stephon Castle (Spurs) , 15+ points in 12 of last 13 games
- Stephon Castle (Spurs) , 7+ rebounds in last 8 home games
- Deni Avdija (Blazers) , 26+ points in 5 of last 6 road games
- Scoot Henderson (Blazers) , 15+ points in 5 of last 6 road games
- Toumani Camara (Blazers) , 2+ threes in last 11 as road underdog
Game Preview
This is shaping as a clean closeout spot for San Antonio.
Game 4 showed the gap clearly — Spurs controlled the paint (52–38), dictated tempo, and had multiple contributors alongside Wembanyama. When that happens, Portland simply don’t have the defensive structure to respond.
Despite the blowout potential, this matchup tends to slow into half-court sets, and San Antonio are happy to control pace once ahead.
With momentum, home court, and far more balance, this looks like a spot where the Spurs finish the job comfortably.
PICK – OVER 215.5 TOTAL POINTS
