FREE NBA PICKS – OPENING NIGHT
*These NBA Playoff picks and research are done the previous game day evening, adjust your selections accordingly should spreads and lineups change.
DP’S PLAYER PROP
2020/21 SEASON RECORD: 75-49
Expert NBA Player Props Analyst, Daniel Parisi, gives his best daily prop.
GOLDEN STATE @ BROOKLYN
The Warriors newest suite of additions is headlined by Kelly Ourbe Jr (and although Wiggins was not an off-season transaction) he is only 12 games into being a Dub – and still, Oubre Jr presents the biggest upside.
Taking on that ‘Kevin Durant’ like wing-role, Oubre Jr demonstrated some breakout games last season for the Suns, in which he returned 18.7 ppg on 45.2 from the floor across 56 games.
Prior to a meniscus injury, which ultimately iced his season, Oubre Jr was trending as a bucket-getter.
In January, Kelly was shooting it 46.5% on the floor for 20.6 ppg and in February 43.6% on the floor for 19.3 ppg.
Moving into the Dubs’ roster, Oubre is going to get the go-ahead in transition and is not shy to let it fly from the arc. With no Klay Thompson to pair with Steph, there’s every chance Steph has to deal with the double, which at that point should gift Oubre Jr fast-cuts to the hoop and/or better looks than he was receiving with Ricky Rubio.
Should a double not be set in motion, Steph is capable to play off-ball and let Kelly go on drives to the hoop – an agile finisher.
Oubre’s ceiling is extremely high, and at the ripe old age of 25, in a Steve Kerr system – he is going to have every opportunity to average 20-22 points on 15 looks per game.
Align this with his ability to get to the free throw line, covering the 17.5 against the Nets should get us rolling into the season with an easy prop dub.
PLAYER PROP PICK – KELLY OUBRE JR OVER 17.5 POINTS
[/restrict]TREND BET
LA CLIPPERS
- Under is 6-0-2 in last 8 overall.
- Under is 7-1 in last 8 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
- Under is 8-3 in last 11 games as an underdog.
LA LAKERS
- Under is 4-0 in last 4 after allowing 100+ points in their last game.
- Under is 21-8 in last 29 Tuesday games.
MATCHUP
- Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Los Angeles.
- Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
TREND BET – UNDER 223.5 TOTAL POINTS
*Strongest trend bet of the night. If trends are your thing, this is your pick.
GOLDEN STATE @ BROOKLYN
PLAYER BETTING TRENDS
- Kevin Durant has 29+ points in 7 of his last 8 games as a favourite. (25.5)
- Joe Harris has 18+ points in 4 of the Nets’ last 5 games as favourites. (11.5)
- Stephen Curry has 35+ points in his last 2 games at Barclays Center. (27.5)
- Kevin Durant has 5+ assists in 7 of his last 8 games against Pacific opponents. (4.5)
() = BOOKIE LINE
MATCHUP TRENDS
- Warriors are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
- Warriors are 5-13 ATS in the last 18 meetings in Brooklyn.
- Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
ROSTER CHANGES
GOLDEN STATE
STAY – Marquese Chriss, Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Kevon Looney, Eric Paschall, Jordan Poole, Alen Smailagic, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Damion Lee (NG), Mychal Mulder (NG), Juan Toscano (NG).
IN – Kent Bazemore (SAC), Nico Mannion (R), Kelly Oubre (PHX), Axel Toupane, Brad Wanamaker (BOS), James Wiseman (R).
OUT – Ky Bowman (LAC).
BROOKLYN
STAY – Jarrett Allen, Nicolas Claxton, Spencer Dinwiddie, Kevin Durant, Joe Harris, Kyrie Irving, Tyler Johnson, DeAndre Jordan, Rodions Kurucs, Caris LeVert, Taurean Prince, Chris Chiozza (NG), Timothe Luwawu (NG), Jeremiah Martin.
IN – Bruce Brown (DET), Jeff Green (HOU), Reggie Perry (R), Landry Shamet (LAC).
OUT – Justin Anderson (PHI), Michael Beasley, Wilson Chandler, Jamal Crawford, Donta Hall, Dzanan Musa (DET), Garrett Temple (CHI), Lance Thomas.
2019/20 WIN/LOSS
| TEAM | W | L | HOME | ROAD |
| GSW | 15 | 50 | 8-26 | 7-24 |
| BKN | 35 | 37 | 20-16 | 15-21 |
2019/20 SEASON POINTS +/-
| TEAM | PPG | OPPG | DIFF | AV. TOT |
| GSW | 106.3 | 115.0 | -8.7 | 221.3 |
| BKN | 111.8 | 112.3 | -0.5 | 224.1 |
PICKS ATS
| Spread | Points | Result |
| GSW | UNDER | BKN |
| +7.5 | 231.5 | 125-99 |
The flat-earther/sage healer and Durant open season 2020/21 and finally take to the hardwood together in what should be a successful campaign, but definitely an interesting one.
The Warriors are looking to rebound from a 50-loss season and a last place finish in the West. Decimated by injuries, Golden State ended up last in the league in offensive efficiency.
The Nets come enter the season with high expectations. Brooklyn finished two games below .500 in 2019/20 and were eliminated by Toronto in the first 1st round of the Bubble playoffs. Steve Nash was hired to coach a Brooklyn team that ranked 22nd in offensive efficiency.
While the Warriors are excited about three significant new pieces along with a healthy Curry, they will be without Draymond Green, who is expected to miss the game with a strained muscle in his right foot.
With the heartbreak of Klay Thompson’s injury we all shed a tear, surely none moreso than Stephen Curry, who will need to go full MVP mode this season to give the Warriors a chance, even with #1 pick Wiseman hitting the floor.
PICK – UNDER 231.5 TOTAL POINTS
LA CLIPPERS @ LA LAKERS
PLAYER BETTING TRENDS
- Kawhi Leonard has 27+ points in the Clippers’ last 4 games against the Lakers. (25.5)
- LeBron James has 28+ points in 6 of the Lakers’ last 7 games at STAPLES Center. (24.5)
- Dennis Schroder has 17+ points in his last 3 games against the Clippers. (14.5)
- Paul George has 26+ points in 6 of his last 8 games against the Lakers. (22.5)
- Montrezl Harrell has 7+ rebounds in 5 of his last 6 games at STAPLES Center. (5.5)
- Lou Williams has 5+ assists in 5 of his last 6 games against the Lakers. (4.5)
() = BOOKIE LINE
[/restrict]MATCHUP TRENDS
- Clippers are 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Los Angeles.
- Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Los Angeles.
- Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
ROSTER CHANGES
LA LAKERS
STAY – Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Alex Caruso, Anthony Davis, Jared Dudley, Talen Horton-Tucker, LeBron James, Kyle Kuzma, Markieff Morris, Quinn Cook (NG), Kostas Antetokounmpo, Devontae Cacok.
IN – Marc Gasol (TOR), Montrezl Harrell (LAC), Wesley Matthews (MIL), Alfonzo McKinnie (CLE), Dennis Schröder (OKC).
OUT –Avery Bradley (MIA), Danny Green (PHI), Dwight Howard (PHI), JaVale McGee (CLE), Rajon Rondo (ATL), J.R. Smith, Dion Waiters.
LA CLIPPERS
STAY – Patrick Beverley, Paul George, Reggie Jackson, Mfiondu Kabengele, Kawhi Leonard, Terance Mann, Marcus Morris, Patrick Patterson, Louis Williams, Ivica Zubac, Amir Coffey.
IN – Nicolas Batum (CHA), Ky Bowman (GSW), Serge Ibaka (TOR), Luke Kennard (DET), Daniel Oturu (R), Jay Scrubb (R), Rayjon Tucker (UTA).
OUT – JaMychal Green (DEN), Montrezl Harrell (LAL), Rodney McGruder (DET), Johnathan Motley (PHX), Joakim Noah, Landry Shamet (BKN).
2019/20 WIN/LOSS
| TEAM | W | L | HOME | ROAD |
| LAL | 52 | 19 | 25-10 | 27-9 |
| LAC | 49 | 23 | 27-9 | 22-14 |
2020/21 SEASON POINTS +/-
| TEAM | PPG | OPPG | DIFF | AV. TOT |
| LAL | 113.4 | 107.6 | +5.8 | 221.0 |
| LAC | 116.3 | 109.9 | +6.4 | 226.2 |
PICKS ATS
| Spread | Points | Result |
| LAL | UNDER | LAC |
| -2.5 | 223.5 | 116-109 |
Last year’s mid-season favorites line up against last year’s champs in what should be a very interesting affair.
The Lakers, who finished the preseason 4-0, improved during the offseason with the additions of reigning Sixth Man of the Year and former Clippers big man Montrezl Harrell, the Sixth Man runner-up in Dennis Schroder, veteran Marc Gasol and Wesley Matthews.
The Clippers were looked upon as the most talented team last season, but threw away a 3-1 series lead to be eliminated in the 2nd round by Denver in one of the great all-time chokes. Doc Rivers was replaced by Ty Lue and expectations are again lofty for a team that ranked 2nd in the league offensively last season.
Just a little over two months ago the Lakers beat the Heat in the Finals to claim their first chip since 2010. Head coach Frank Vogel focused on defense and his players bought in, finishing 3rd in the league in defensive efficiency. The biggest query heading into this season is the legs on the veterans, and the number of rest-days that are scheduled for Lebron.
Opening night is traditionally difficult for defending champs, but we’ll give the Lakers the benefit of the doubt to start 2020/21 where they left off.
PICK – LA LAKERS -2.5
PROP – The Lakers have won the first quarter in each of their last seven games against the Clippers. LA LAKERS WIN 1st QTR
