The Conference Semifinals tip off with two compelling Game 1 matchups. New York and San Antonio open at home as clear favourites, but both underdogs have shown resilience throughout the postseason.
PHILADELPHIA 76ERS @ NEW YORK KNICKS
Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
Odds: PHI $3.30 / NY $1.35
East Semifinals – Game 1
New York enters with a +6.4 differential and elite 110.1 OPPG defense, built for half-court playoff basketball. Philadelphia’s -0.2 differential reflects volatility, particularly against structured defensive units. At home, the Knicks’ physicality and rebounding edge should dictate tempo early in the series.
WIN/LOSS
| TEAM | W | L | HOME | ROAD |
| PHI | 45 | 37 | 23-18 | 22-19 |
| NYK | 53 | 29 | 30-10 | 23-19 |
SEASON POINTS +/-
| TEAM | PPG | OPPG | DIFF | TOT.AV. |
| PHI | 115.9 | 116.1 | -0.2 | 232.0 |
| NYK | 116.5 | 110.1 | +6.4 | 226.6 |
PICKS ATS
| SPREAD | POINTS | RESULT |
| NY | OVER | |
| -7.5 | 212.5 |
New York come into Game 1 with clear edges at home, particularly through rebounding and second-chance scoring, which proved decisive in the regular season series. Jalen Brunson continues to control tempo and create consistently, while Karl-Anthony Towns adds another layer as both a scorer and facilitator.
Philadelphia, led by Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey, have the firepower to stay competitive, especially given their strong road trends, but they’re far more reliant on star output. The Knicks’ depth, physicality, and home-court advantage should allow them to dictate the game, though the tighter spread suggests the 76ers can keep this within range.
PICK – OVER 212.5 TOTAL POINTS
MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES @ SAN ANTONIO SPURS
Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX
Time: 11:30 AM
Odds: MIN $5.50 / SA $1.16
West Semifinals – Game 1
San Antonio’s +8.3 differential and dominant 32-8 home record underline their championship-level consistency. Minnesota carries a +3.4 differential but faces a significant step up in defensive discipline and offensive efficiency. The Spurs’ 119.8 PPG attack and structured half-court execution provide a clear Game 1 edge.
WIN/LOSS
| TEAM | W | L | HOME | ROAD |
| MIN | 49 | 33 | 26-15 | 23-18 |
| SA | 62 | 20 | 32-8 | 29-12 |
SEASON POINTS +/-
| TEAM | PPG | OPPG | DIFF | TOT.AV. |
| MIN | 118.0 | 114.6 | +3.4 | 232.6 |
| SA | 119.8 | 111.5 | +8.3 | 231.3 |
PICKS ATS
| SPREAD | POINTS | RESULT |
| MIN | OVER | |
| +13.5 | 217.5 |
The Minnesota Timberwolves open this semi-final on the road with some uncertainty, but their upside is clear if Anthony Edwards is available after dominating this matchup during the regular season. San Antonio, led by Victor Wembanyama, have already shown they can control games in this matchup when he’s on the floor, giving them a major interior and defensive edge.
The key dynamic here is contrast as Minnesota rely on explosive scoring and pace, while the Spurs lean into structure and half-court control. With the Timberwolves struggling on the road in recent playoff games and San Antonio playing at home, the early edge sits slightly with the Spurs unless Edwards delivers another big performance.
PICK – OVER 217.5 TOTAL POINTS
