NBA – Playoff NBA 1st Round Picks – Sun, 4th May

nba playoffs picks

*These NBA tips and player prop picks are done the previous game day. Adjust selections should spreads and lineups change.


INDIANA PACERS @ CLEVELAND CAVALIERS

Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland, OH

East Semifinals – Game 1

Team & Totals Trends:

  • The Pacers have failed to cover in 9 of their last 10 road games after a win
  • The Cavs have won their last 13 Eastern Semis games as favs
  • Each of the Cavs’ last 4 home games have gone over

WIN/LOSS

TEAM W L HOME ROAD
IND 50 32 29-11 20-20
CLE 64 18 34-7 30-11

SEASON POINTS AVERAGE

TEAM PPG OPPG DIFF TOTAL
IND 117.4 115.1 +2.3 232.5
CLE 121.9 112.4 +9.5 234.3

SEASON SERIES

DATE RESULT
Jan 13, 2025 IND 108 @ CLE 93
Jan 15, 2025 CLE 127 @ IND 117
Apr 11, 2025 CLE 112 @ IND 114
Apr 14, 2025 IND 126 @ CLE 118 (OT)

PICKS ATS

SPREAD POINTS RESULT
CLE OVER
-8.0 229.5
NBA PLAYER PROP BETS - CLICK TO OPEN

Player Trends:

  • Max Strus has 3+ threes in 4 straight playoff games as a home fav
  • Donovan Mitchell has 4+ threes in 9 straight Conference Semis games
  • Andrew Nembhard has 6 assists in his last 2 Eastern Semis games
  • Tyrese Haliburton has 12+ assists in 3 of his last 4 road games vs. CLE
  • Max Strus has 4+ assists in 5 of CLE’s last 6 playoff games
  • Darius Garland has 6+ assists in 9 of his last 10 vs. IND
  • Andrew Nembhard has 15+ points in 7 of his last 8 playoff games
  • Darius Garland has 26+ points in 3 of his last 4 games
  • Donovan Mitchell has 30+ points in 7 straight Game 1s
  • Pascal Siakam has 26+ points in 3 of his last 4 games as an underdog vs. East teams
  • Myles Turner has 15+ points in 5 straight games vs. CLE as an underdog
  • Donovan Mitchell has 6+ rebounds in 7 of his last 8 home games
  • Tyrese Haliburton has 4+ rebounds in 11 straight playoff games vs. Central teams
  • Jarrett Allen has 11+ rebounds in 4 straight Game 1s
  • Pascal Siakam has 6+ rebounds in 6 straight games as an underdog vs. CLE
  • Evan Mobley has 12+ rebounds in 3 of his last 4 home games vs. IND
  • Aaron Nesmith has 4+ rebounds in 8 straight games vs. Central teams as an underdog
  • The Pacers have won the 1st half in each of their last 3 games

Indiana and Cavaliers will open their Eastern Semi-final series at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse.

The teams last met in the playoffs in the 2017-18 first round, where Cleveland edged Indiana in a seven-game series. The Cavaliers hold a 2-1 advantage across three all-time postseason meetings.

Indiana took the regular season series 3-1, including two road wins in Cleveland—though the Cavaliers were without Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell in two of those losses. Cleveland enters this series after sweeping Miami in the first round, despite Garland appearing in only two games and remaining questionable for Game 1.

Indiana advanced by eliminating Milwaukee in five games, led by Tyrese Haliburton, who averaged 17.6 points and 11.6 assists in that series. The Pacers will look to carry that momentum into Cleveland as both teams chase a spot in the Eastern Finals.

PICK – CLEVELAND -8.0


GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS @ HOUSTON ROCKETS

Toyota Center, Houston, TX

West 1st Round – Game 7 (Series tied 3-3)

Team & Totals Trends:

  • The Rockets have won 11 of their last 12 Western First Round games at home
  • 4 of the Rockets’ last 5 home games vs. the Warriors have gone under

WIN/LOSS

TEAM W L HOME ROAD
GS 48 34 24-17 24-17
HOU 52 30 29-12 23-18

SEASON POINTS AVERAGE

TEAM PPG OPPG DIFF TOTAL
GS 113.8 110.5 +3.3 224.3
HOU 114.3 109.8 +4.5 224.1

Here is the full updated season series table:

SEASON SERIES
\[su\_table]

DATE RESULT
Nov 3, 2024 GSW 127 @ HOU 121
Dec 6, 2024 HOU 93 @ GSW 99
Dec 12, 2024 GSW 90 @ HOU 91
Feb 14, 2025 GSW 105 @ HOU 98
Apr 7, 2025 HOU 106 @ GSW 96
GAME 1 GSW 95 @ HOU 85
GAME 2 GSW 94 @ HOU 109
GAME 3 HOU 93 @ GSW 104
GAME 4 HOU 106 @ GSW 109
GAME 5 GSW 116 @ HOU 131
GAME 6 HOU 115 @ GSW 107
[/su_table]

PICKS ATS

SPREAD POINTS RESULT
HOU UNDER
-2.5 205.5
NBA PLAYER PROP BETS - CLICK TO OPEN

Player Trends:

  • Stephen Curry has 5+ threes in 4 of his last 5 playoff closeout games
  • Jalen Green has 2+ threes in 19 of the Rockets’ last 20 games as favs vs. the West
  • Dillon Brooks has 2+ threes in 15 straight home games vs. Western teams
  • Jalen Green has 2+ assists in 22 straight games as a home fav
  • Curry has 6+ assists in 5 of the Warriors’ last 6 First Round road games
  • Alperen Sengun has 7+ assists in 4 of the Rockets’ last 5 as home favs vs. the West
  • Draymond Green has 4+ assists in 32 of his last 33 playoff closeout games
  • Fred VanVleet has scored 25+ in 3 straight games
  • Dillon Brooks has 10+ points in 15 straight as a home fav
  • Jimmy Butler has scored 28+ in 3 of his last 4 playoff games facing elimination
  • Curry has scored 27+ in 6 of his last 7 playoff games facing elimination
  • Draymond Green has 9+ rebounds in 10 of his last 11 playoff elimination games
  • Jalen Green has 4+ rebounds in 4 straight as a fav
  • Amen Thompson has 6+ rebounds in 11 of his last 12 home games vs. winning teams
  • Steven Adams has 9+ rebounds in 7 straight playoff closeout games
  • Brandin Podziemski has 4+ rebounds in 8 straight road games after <30 mins
  • Jimmy Butler has 7+ rebounds in 6 of his last 7 playoff elimination games
  • The Rockets have won the 1st half in 5 straight games
  • The Warriors have failed to cover in 5 of their last 6 playoff road games

The Warriors and Rockets will battle for a spot in the next round when they face off in Game 7 of their Western First Round series at Toyota Center.

Houston forced the decider with a 115-107 win at Chase Center on Friday, leveling the series at 3-3.

The Rockets controlled the paint, outscoring Golden State 42-32, and took advantage of mistakes with a 22-12 edge in points off turnovers. Fred VanVleet led the way for Houston with 29 points, 8 rebounds, 8 assists, and 6 threes, while Jimmy Butler paced the Warriors with 27 points, 9 rebounds, and 8 assists.

Houston enters Game 7 with a 7-1 record over their last eight games when VanVleet scores 20 or more.

PICK – HOUSTON -2.5


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