NBA Play-In Tournament – Night 1

*These NBA betting tips and player prop picks are done the morning of game day, adjust picks should spreads and lineups change.

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LA LAKERS @ NEW ORLEANS

TEAM TRENDS

• The Lakers’ last 6 games against Western opponents have gone Overs.
• The Lakers have won the first half in 7 of their last 8 games against the Pelicans.

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/- 

SEASON MATCHUPS

PICKS ATS

The Lakers capped the regular season with a decisive 124-108 victory over the Pelicans, highlighting a year-long dominance that saw them lead the season series 3-1, including a 44-point victory in the In-Season Tournament Semifinals.

The Lakers’ formidable size and aggressive play in the paint have troubled the Pelicans, evidenced by their scoring 50 points in the paint in just the first half of their last matchup. LeBron James has been exceptional against New Orleans, averaging 28.3 points and 11.8 assists on 55.1% shooting this season. However, it’s not just LeBron; Anthony Davis, Austin Reaves, and D’Angelo Russell have all averaged over 20+ points, overwhelming a Pelicans team that finished as the No. 6 defense in the league.

The Lakers have found their rhythm late in the season, going 22-10 after Rui Hachimura joined the starting lineup, enhancing their offense to No. 3 in the league during this period. Despite Davis’s recent injury scare, optimism remains that he’ll play in their next critical game.

The Pelicans also showed late-season form, winning four straight before their recent losses, with Brandon Ingram returning from injury to join forces with Zion Williamson and CJ McCollum.

Looking ahead, the winner of this matchup faces the formidable Denver Nuggets, while the loser has a potentially more manageable game against the Oklahoma City Thunder as the No. 8 seed. While it’s unthinkable the Lakers would intentionally lose to secure the latter matchup, it remains a silver lining.

Given LeBron’s playoff reputation and the Lakers’ recent form, they are the favorites to win against the Pelicans, who have struggled to counter Los Angeles’ strengths all season.

PLAYER TRENDS

• Jonas Valanciunas scored the first basket in 5 of the Pelicans’ last 6 games against teams with a winning record.
• C.J. McCollum scored 25+ points in each of the Pelicans’ last 7 games.
• Jonas Valanciunas recorded 6+ rebounds in 13 of his 14 previous home games against the Lakers.
• Herb Jones recorded 4+ rebounds in each of the Pelicans’ last 6 games.
• C.J. McCollum recorded 6+ assists in each of the Pelicans’ last 5 home games against the Lakers.
• Austin Reaves scored 17+ points in each of the Lakers’ last 4 games against the Pelicans.
• Zion Williamson scored 26+ points in 8 of his last 10 games against Western Conference teams.
• Brandon Ingram scored 22+ points in 5 of his last 6 home games against the Lakers.
• LeBron James scored 28+ points in each of the Lakers’ last 3 games.
• Anthony Davis scored 30+ points in each of the Lakers’ last 3 road games.
• LeBron James recorded 10+ rebounds in each of his last 3 road games against teams with a winning record.
• D’Angelo Russell recorded 7+ assists in 3 of the Lakers’ last 4 games.

PICK – LAKERS +1.0

GOLDEN STATE @ SACRAMENTO

TEAM TRENDS

• 10 of the Kings’ last 13 home games have gone Unders.
• The road team has beaten the spread in 7 of the last 8 games between the Warriors and Kings.

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/- 

SEASON MATCHUPS

PICKS ATS

In a thrilling rematch of last year’s first-round playoff series, the Kings face the Golden State Warriors, a matchup that went to seven games previously. De’Aaron Fox, hampered by a finger injury last year, is back at full strength, enhancing the Kings’ chances this time around.

The Kings have leveled up since then, gaining crucial playoff experience and adjusting their strategy to better counter the Warriors’ distinctive style. They’ve been eagerly waiting for this opportunity, seeking revenge for last year’s exit.

The season series was tightly contested, ending in a 2-2 split with the last three games decided by just one point each, highlighting the evenly matched nature of these teams.

A key change from last year is the decline of Kevon Looney, who previously troubled Domantas Sabonis in the playoffs. With Looney’s role reduced this season, Sabonis might find more space to be effective.

Despite injuries to key players like Kevin Huerter and Malik Monk, the Kings have seen others rise, such as Keon Ellis emerging as a defensive force and a reliable shooter, alongside significant defensive improvements from Fox and Keegan Murray.

The Warriors also boast their own emerging talent with Jonathan Kuminga in the running for Most Improved Player, and a resurgence from Klay Thompson, who finished the season strong.

Given these dynamics and the Kings holding home-court advantage, this matchup promises to be a highlight of the Play-In, tilting the scales slightly in favor of Sacramento.

PLAYER TRENDS

• Andrew Wiggins scored 17+ points in 9 of his last 10 road games against the Kings.
• Harrison Barnes recorded 5+ rebounds in each of the Kings’ last 4 games.
• Stephen Curry recorded 6+ rebounds in each of the Warriors’ last 4 road games.
• Jonathan Kuminga scored 18+ points in 6 of his last 7 games with the Warriors as road favorites.
• Klay Thompson scored 25+ points in 4 of his last 5 games with the Warriors as favorites.
• Keegan Murray recorded 7+ rebounds in 6 of the Kings’ last 7 games as underdogs.
• Jonathan Kuminga recorded 6+ rebounds in 4 of his last 5 games.
• Draymond Green recorded 7+ assists in 6 of his last 7 games against the Kings.
• Draymond Green recorded a double-double in each of his last 2 games.

PICK – OVER 222.0 TOTAL PTS

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