*These NBA Computer Picks for the 1st Roudn of the NBA Playoffs are mad e the morning of the games. So pleas echeck lines and spreads and adjust picks accordingly should odds change.
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER for the best NBA Playoff picks and extra betting trends.
ORLANDO @ CLEVELAND
EASTERN CONFERENCE 1ST ROUND – GAME 1
Over/Under Prediction: Over 207.5 Total Points
The prediction for the total points leans towards the over. The Cleveland Cavaliers have shown a strong tendency to hit the Game Total Over in recent home games, achieving it in 13 of their last 17 instances, corresponding to a high 46% ROI.
This aligns with the Cavaliers’ tendency to score effectively, especially in the first quarter at home, where they’ve hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 25 of their last 38 games. Despite Orlando’s frequent unders in various quarters, their history against Cleveland’s potent offense might push the total points higher than expected.
ATS Prediction: Cleveland Cavaliers -4.5
Considering the recent performance where the home team has consistently beaten the spread in the Magic’s games and Cleveland’s strength in covering the first half spread effectively in most games, Cleveland is well-positioned to cover the spread in this matchup.
The Cavaliers’ reliable first-half performances, coupled with Orlando’s challenges in closing games (as evidenced by their recent playoff losses), enhance confidence in Cleveland’s ability to cover.
Best Pick: Over 207.5 Total Points
PHOENIX @ MINNESOTA
WESTERN CONFERENCE 1ST ROUND – GAME 1
Over/Under Prediction: Under 214 Total Points
The trend toward an under total points outcome is supported by the Phoenix Suns’ strong record of hitting the Under in recent games, including 39 of their last 62 games with a notable 22% ROI.
Phoenix has consistently hit the 1H Game Total Under in their away games. Minnesota also contributes to this trend with their performance in hitting the 2Q Game Total Under in 37 of their last 56 games. These patterns suggest a game where scoring could be more restrained than the line suggests.
ATS Prediction: Phoenix Suns -1.5
Phoenix has a compelling track record against Minnesota, having beaten the spread in their last 9 encounters and winning 10 of their last 11 games against them. This dominance, coupled with Minnesota’s recent difficulties in the first half of playoff games, points to Phoenix’s potential to cover the spread again.
Phoenix’s historical performance at Target Center, where recent games have tended to go over, also supports their ability to handle the road environment effectively.
Best Pick: Phoenix Suns -1.5
PHILADELPHIA @ NEW YORK
EASTERN CONFERENCE 1ST ROUND – GAME 1
Over/Under Prediction: Under 209.0 Total Points
The Knicks have a strong trend of games going Under in Eastern First Round home games, with the last 11 consecutive games following this pattern. This is further supported by the Knicks’ and the 76ers’ abilities to keep the scoring low, particularly in the first quarter, where Philadelphia has succeeded in keeping the game total under in 45 of their last 72 games.
ATS Prediction: Philadelphia 76ers +3.0
Philadelphia’s recent outings have been robust, winning their last 9 games outright. Their prowess in early, having covered the 1Q spread in 17 of their last 20 away games, aligns with their momentum entering this game.
The 76ers’ ability to win the first half in recent matchups against the Knicks adds confidence to their capability to cover, if not win outright. The Knicks’ struggle to cover the spread at home following a win (failing to cover in 8 of their last 9 such games) further tips the scale in favor of Philadelphia covering.
Best Pick: Under 209.0 Total Points
LA LAKERS @ DENVER
WESTERN CONFERENCE 1ST ROUND – GAME 1
Over/Under Prediction: Over 224.0 Total Points
This pick leans on the Lakers’ trend towards high-scoring games, as evident in 38 of their last 60 games surpassing the total points line.
Coupled with the Nuggets’ recent playoff history where 15 of their last 20 Western First Round games have gone over, there’s a strong indication that this game could also trend towards a higher score. Both teams have demonstrated the ability to score heavily in early halves, which could contribute significantly to breaching the total.
ATS Prediction: Denver Nuggets -7.5
The Nuggets have a dominant track record against the Lakers, with eight straight wins. This winning streak, combined with the Lakers’ struggles to cover the spread in recent Western First Round games as underdogs (failing to cover in 9 of their last 10 such games), supports a pick favoring Denver to cover the spread.
Denver’s solid trends in covering the 1Q spread in 58 of their last 95 games further underscores their capacity to start strong, which is critical in covering a relatively large spread.
Best Pick: Over 224.0 Total Points
