*These NBA computer picks are done the morning of game day, adjust picks should spreads and lineups change.
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BOSTON @ DALLAS
NBA FINALS – GAME 3
BOSTON LEAD 2-0
Over/Under Pick: Under 212.5 Total Points
The analysis leans towards the Under for several statistically backed reasons:
- Dallas Mavericks have a soild trend of hitting the Game Total Under, achieving this in 48 of their last 76 games with a positive ROI of 21%. This indicates a strong pattern of lower-scoring games which is critical for total points betting.
- Boston Celtics add to this with their fourth quarter under trends, hitting the 4Q Game Total Under in 62 of their last 91 games, which translates to a 28% ROI. This shows their ability to tighten defense towards the game’s end, crucial in keeping total points down.
ATS Pick: Boston Celtics +2.5
Boston’s statistical strengths make them a strong candidate to cover the spread:
- Boston Celtics have covered the 1H Spread in 64 of their last 98 games, which represents a robust 22% ROI. Their ability to start strong is a key factor in covering spreads.
- Their recent head-to-head matchups against the Mavericks have seen them covering the line in five of the last six games, showing an ability to outperform spreads against Dallas.
Given their strong starting performance trends and historical ability to cover against Dallas, Boston is well-positioned to cover +2.5 in this matchup.
