*These NBA computer picks are done the morning of game day, adjust picks should spreads and lineups change.
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CLEVELAND @ ORLANDO
EASTERN CONFERENCE 1ST ROUND – GAME 3
CLEVELAND LEADS 2-0
Over/Under Total Pick: Under 202.0 Total Points
Both the Cavaliers and the Magic have displayed tendencies towards lower-scoring games, particularly in various game stages. The Cavaliers have shown a preference for lower-scoring fourth quarters, hitting the 4Q Game Total Under in 46 of their last 75 games (+14.90 Units / 17% ROI).
The Magic have favored low-scoring first quarters, hitting the 1Q Game Total Under in 48 of their last 74 games (+19.15 Units / 22% ROI).
With the Cavaliers’ last 9 playoff games also trending towards Unders, and the home team historically performing well defensively, an under bet seems good tonight.
ATS Pick: Orlando Magic -2.0
The Magic have been strong at home, hitting the Moneyline in 29 of their last 41 home games (+16.35 Units / 15% ROI). On the contrary, Cleveland have struggled on the road, hitting the Moneyline in only 15 of their last 33 away games (-21.75 Units / -22% ROI).
Additionally, historical data reveals that the home team has won the last 7 Cavaliers vs. Magic playoff games, indicating a notable home advantage for the Magic in this matchup.
Despite the Magic’s tendency to start slow in playoff games, losing the first quarter in 17 of their last 18 playoff games, their strong home performance should outweigh this factor.
Orlando Magic -2.0 presents a nice bet.
Best Computer Pick: Under 202.0 Total Points
NEW YORK @ PHILADELPHIA
EASTERN CONFERENCE 1ST ROUND – GAME 3
NEW YORK LEADS 2-0
Over/Under Total Pick: Over 201.5 Total Points
Both the Knicks and the 76ers have leaned towards higher-scoring games recently.
The Knicks have gone over the total in 14 of their last 17 outings (+10.70 Units / 57% ROI), indicating a recent trend of high-scoring affairs. Additionally, the Knicks have consistently hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 14 games (+11.85 Units / 73% ROI), highlighting their ability to score late in the game.
The 76ers have shown a knack for higher-scoring fourth quarters, hitting the 4Q Game Total Over in 47 of their last 79 games (+12.70 Units / 14% ROI). Given these trends, along with the recent winning streaks of both teams, an over bet on the total points seems justified for this matchup.
ATS Pick: New York Knicks +5.5
New York have been in good form, winning their last 7 games and covering the spread in 7 of their last 8 road games against Atlantic teams.
Additionally, they’ve been starting games well, winning first quarters in 6 of their last 7 road games against the 76ers.
The 76ers have actually performed well against the spread in the first quarter, covering it in 28 of their last 41 games (+13.05 Units / 28% ROI).
However, with the Knicks’ strong performance and historical advantage in the early stages of games, coupled with their ability to cover the spread on the road, taking the New York Knicks +5.5 presents a nice bet, but not the best of the two picks.
Best Computer Pick: Over 201.5 Total Points
DENVER @ LA LAKERS
WESTERN CONFERENCE 1ST ROUND – GAME 3
DENVER LEADS 2-0
Over/Under Total Points Pick: Over 216.0 Total Points
Both Denver and the LA have shown to lean towards higher-scoring games in various quarters and overall game totals.
The Nuggets have hit the Game Total Under in 56 of their last 95 games (+15.35 Units / 15% ROI), indicating a trend for games with fewer total points. They have kept the scoring low in the first quarter, hitting the 1Q Game Total Under in 54 of their last 92 games (+13.75 Units / 13% ROI).
The Lakers have shown a tendency to exceed the game total, hitting the under in only 27 of their last 70 games (-19.15 Units / -25% ROI). Additionally, they have struggled to stay under the 1Q Game Total, achieving this in only 41 of their last 98 games (-23.05 Units / -21% ROI).
Considering the historical matchup data, which includes the Nuggets winning their last 10 games against the Lakers and 7 of the Nuggets’ last 8 playoff games going unders, there’s a strong indication that this game will also see a lot of points scored.
ATS Pick: Denver Nuggets +1.0
The Denver Nuggets have a remarkable track record against the Lakers, winning their last 10 encounters. Additionally, they have covered their last 5 playoff road games, showing some ability to perform well away from home under the playoff bright lights.
While the Lakers might have historically won the first quarter in home matchups against the Nuggets, the Nuggets’ overall dominance against the Lakers and their recent playoff success on the road suggest they can overcome this early deficit and ultimately cover the +1.0 spread.
