Expert NBA Tips and Player Prop Betting Picks

Tonight’s NBA Computer Picks – Mon, 18th March

March 18, 2024

Okay, so we are dipping our toes into some AI computer betting picks for the next month.

How are we doing this?

We are taking hundreds of lines of statistics and trends from the top sites that offer NBA matchups statistical analysis, and running these lines of statistics through AI, at which point the AI will predict the outcome of the games given the huge number of statistics available for each game.

If you’re interested to see how these NBA computer picks go, we’ll be updating daily a Win/Loss table – so that we can all see just how good AI generated NBA picks are.

*These computer betting picks are done the previous game day, adjust selections should spreads and lineups change.

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AI COMPUTER PICKS RECORD

ATS RECORD		TOTAL PTS PROPS
W	L	W	L
15	13	15	12

BEST BETS: 5-2

CLEVELAND @ INDIANA

ATS Prediction: Indiana -6.0

Given the Pacers’ impressive record of winning 16 of their last 17 games as home favorites against the Cavs, along with the Cavs’ recent success in covering the spread following a loss, this presents a competitive edge. However, Indiana’s strong performance as home favorites in this matchup historically gives them the potential to cover.

Over/Under Prediction: Under 224.5 Total Points

The trend of the Cavs’ road games going Under, with 11 of their last 13 away games not surpassing the total points line, combined with their consistent Under outcomes in the 4Q and 1H Game Total, suggests that this game might also lean towards a lower-scoring outcome.

Best Pick: Under 224.5 Total Points

Considering both teams’ trends, especially the Cavs’ strong tendency towards Unders in their recent road games and the defensive capabilities as indicated by their success in hitting the Game Total Under, the Under bet appears to be the more reliable option. The statistical backing and the specific trends related to game totals suggest that a defensive battle might ensue.

DETROIT @ BOSTON

ATS Prediction: Boston -15.5

Considering the Pistons’ significant losing streak against Eastern teams above .500 and the Celtics’ historical performance in home games against the Pistons, Boston appears well-positioned to cover the spread in this matchup. Detroit’s record in covering the spread following a loss does add an element of competitiveness, but Boston’s overall strength and home-court advantage should play a crucial role.

Over/Under Prediction: Over 222.5 Total Points

The trend of the Celtics’ last 5 home games against the Pistons going Overs, combined with Detroit’s recent Under outcomes, presents a mixed signal. However, the historical trend of Overs in Celtics home games against the Pistons suggests a higher-scoring game might be more likely in this matchup.

Best Pick: Over 222.5 Total Points

Given the historical trend of Overs in Boston’s home games against Detroit, despite the Pistons’ recent tendency towards Unders, the Over bet appears to be the more reliable option for this specific matchup. The Celtics’ offensive capability, especially at home against Detroit, supports the expectation of a higher-scoring game, making the Over/Under bet leaning towards Over the best pick for this game. The history of high-scoring games at TD Garden between these two teams provides a solid foundation for expecting another game over the total points line.

MIAMI @ PHILADELPHIA

ATS Prediction: Miami +2.0

The Heat’s track record of covering their last 4 games on the second leg of a back-to-back, combined with their recent performance of winning their last 4 road games against the 76ers, suggests Miami has a strong chance of covering the spread in this matchup.

Over/Under Prediction: Under 210.5 Total Points

Given the Heat’s last 6 games have all gone Under, alongside their consistent performance in hitting the Game Total Under in a majority of their recent games, this matchup against the 76ers is also likely to result in a lower-scoring outcome.

Additional Stats to Support the Pick:

Miami’s Success on the Road: The Heat have been strong in away games, with a Moneyline record of 27 wins in their last 48 away games, indicating their competitiveness on the road.
Defensive Strength: Both teams have shown defensive capabilities, especially Miami, with significant trends towards the Game Total Under (51 of their last 76 games) and the 4Q Game Total Under (29 of their last 37 games), suggesting tight defensive play in late-game situations.

Best Pick: Under 210.5 Total Points

Considering the Heat’s defensive strength and recent trend towards low-scoring games, the Under bet appears to be the more reliable option for this matchup. Miami’s ability to consistently hit the Game Total Under, coupled with their performance in 4Q Game Totals, supports an expectation for a defensively oriented game. Furthermore, their last 6 games all going Under adds to the likelihood of this trend continuing against the 76ers.

PORTLAND @ CHICAGO

ATS Prediction: Portland +6.5

The Bulls have had difficulty covering the spread in their last 5 home games following a win. Despite their success against the Blazers in recent matchups, this trend suggests potential challenges in covering the spread in this game.

Over/Under Prediction: Over 212.5 Total Points

With 9 of the Bulls’ last 13 home games going Overs and their tendency to hit the Team Total Over in recent games, this matchup against the Trail Blazers, who have a mixed trend with their 4Q Game Totals, suggests a potential for a higher-scoring game, especially given the Bulls’ offensive capabilities.

Extra Stats to Back the Pick:

Chicago’s Offensive Performance: The Bulls have consistently hit the Team Total Over and the 4Q Game Total Over in a significant number of their recent games, indicating strong offensive performances that could contribute to a high-scoring game.
Portland’s Defensive Struggles: While the Trail Blazers have been successful in hitting the 4Q Game Total Under, their overall performance in away games suggests potential vulnerabilities that the Bulls could exploit, especially considering Portland’s mixed results in covering spreads and Moneyline outcomes in away games.

Best Pick: Over 212.5 Total Points

The Bulls’ ability to drive high-scoring outcomes at home, coupled with the Trail Blazers’ lapses in defensive quarters during away games, makes the Over/Under bet leaning towards Over the best pick for this game. The historical tendency towards Overs in Bulls’ home games against the Trail Blazers provides a solid foundation for expecting another high-scoring encounter.

MINNESOTA @ UTAH

ATS Prediction: Minnesota -5.0

The Timberwolves’ impressive streak of covering their last 8 road games against the Jazz and their recent successes against Utah suggest they are well-positioned to cover the spread once again.

Over/Under Prediction: Under 223.5 Total Points

Considering the Timberwolves’ trend of their last 6 games on the first leg of a back-to-back going Unders and their significant performance in hitting the Game Total Under in various quarters, this matchup is likely to follow the trend and result in a lower-scoring game.

Extra Stats to Support the Pick:

Minnesota’s Defensive Strength: The Timberwolves have been consistent in hitting the Game Total Under in the 1Q and 1H, indicating strong defensive starts in their games.
Utah’s First Half Struggles: The Jazz’s tendency to lose the first half in a majority of their recent games could contribute to a slower start and potentially lower scoring in the first half, aligning with the prediction for an Under outcome.
Head-to-Head Performance: Minnesota’s recent dominance over Utah, especially in covering spreads and outright wins, adds confidence to their ability to perform well in this matchup.

Best Pick: Under 223.5 Total Points

Given both teams’ specific trends and the historical performance of Timberwolves’ games towards Unders in similar situations, the Under bet appears to be the more reliable option. Minnesota’s defensive capabilities, especially in the early parts of games, combined with Utah’s struggles in the first half, make the Over/Under bet leaning towards Under the best pick for this game.

NEW YORK @ GOLDEN STATE

ATS Prediction: Golden State -4.0

Given the Warriors’ recent success at home, especially with Stephen Curry playing against Jalen Brunson, and the Knicks’ struggle to cover the spread following a win, Golden State seems positioned well to cover the spread in this matchup.

Over/Under Prediction: Under 212.5 Total Points

The Knicks’ strong trend towards Unders in their recent games, with 11 of their last 12 games going Under, combined with their overall performance in hitting the Game Total Under in a significant majority of their games, suggests that this matchup is likely to result in a lower-scoring outcome. The Warriors have also shown a tendency towards hitting the Game Total Under in their recent matchups.

Extra Stats to Back the Pick:

Defensive Performances: The Knicks have been consistent in hitting the Game Total Under, particularly in the first half of their games, indicating strong defensive efforts from the start.
Warriors’ Home Court Advantage: The Warriors’ ability to cover spreads and their performance in 1Q spreads at home, alongside Stephen Curry’s impactful presence, adds to their advantage.
Head-to-Head Matchup: The historical context of the Warriors winning their last 4 home games against the Knicks with Curry playing against Brunson highlights Golden State’s edge in this matchup.

Best Pick: Under 212.5 Total Points

Considering the Knicks’ overwhelming trend towards the Under in their recent games and the Warriors’ capacity to also contribute to lower-scoring outcomes, the Under bet appears to be the more reliable option for this matchup. Both teams’ defensive capabilities and recent trends strongly suggest that the total points will likely stay below the set line.

MEMPHIS @ SACRAMENTO

ATS Prediction: Memphis +10.0

Despite their losing streak against Western opponents above .500, the Grizzlies’ ability to cover the 1Q Spread in a significant majority of their recent games, combined with the Kings’ struggle to cover the spread as favorites.

Over/Under Prediction: Under 222.5 Total Points

The historical trend of the last 6 games between these two teams going Under, along with the Grizzlies’ strong performance in hitting the Game Total Under in the 4Q, suggests this game is likely to follow a lower-scoring outcome.

Extra Stats to Back the Pick:

Memphis’ 4Q Defense: The Grizzlies have been exceptional in limiting scores in the 4Q, contributing to Unders in their matchups.
Sacramento’s 1H Performance: Although the Kings have had success in hitting the 1H Game Total Over, their struggles in covering spreads as favorites could impact the overall scoring dynamic, especially against a defensively capable team like Memphis.
Head-to-Head Under Trends: The consistent Under outcomes in recent head-to-head matchups further solidify the expectation for a lower-scoring game.

Best Pick: Under 222.5 Total Points

Considering the defensive strengths of the Grizzlies, especially in the later quarters, and the historical trend of Unders in games between these two teams, the Under bet appears to be the more reliable option. Memphis’ success in the 4Q Game Total Under and the last 6 matchups between these teams going Under, provide a solid foundation for expecting another low-scoring encounter.

ATLANTA @ LA LAKERS

ATS Prediction: LA Lakers -9.0

Given the Lakers’ success in covering their last 5 home games following a home loss and the Hawks’ track record of losing their last 12 road games on the second leg of a back-to-back against the Lakers, Los Angeles seems well-positioned to cover the spread in this matchup.

Over/Under Prediction: Over 225.5 Total Points

The history of the last 5 games between these two teams going Over, combined with both teams’ trends towards hitting the Game Total Over in their recent matchups, suggests a continuation of high-scoring games, especially given the Lakers’ offensive performances at home.

Extra Stats to Back the Pick:

Historical Overs: The consistent Over outcomes in recent head-to-head matchups provide a strong basis for expecting another high-scoring game.
Hawks’ 1Q Under vs. Lakers’ 1Q Over Trends: Despite the Hawks hitting the 1Q Game Total Under in many recent games, the Lakers have a trend towards 1Q Game Total Over, which could lead to an early high-scoring game dynamic.
Lakers’ Home Advantage: The Lakers’ ability to hit the Moneyline and the Game Total Over in a significant number of their home games suggests they’re capable of dictating the pace and scoring, especially against a team like Atlanta, which has struggled on the second leg of back-to-backs on the road.

Best Pick: Over 225.5 Total Points

Considering both teams’ historical performance of going Over in their matchups and the Lakers’ recent trend towards high-scoring games at home, the Over bet appears to be the more reliable option. The additional context of the Lakers’ success in 1Q Game Totals and the Hawks’ overall ability to hit the Team Total Over in a majority of their games gives confidence for another high-scoring meeting.