GAME 3 – BOSTON @ MIAMI – 19/9/20

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DP’S PLAYER PROP

SEASON RECORD: 72-41

Expert NBA Player Props analyst, Daniel Parisi, gives his best daily prop.

BOSTON @ MIAMI

For the third straight time in this series, the Boston Celtics enter as warm favorites, which for the record, I find highly unusual but clearly the market thinks ‘they are due’ – see my series preview for further notes.

In saying that, I am extremely mindful of how this game could play out. The Celtics need to play a consistent two-way brand of basketball across 48 minutes.

Just like they did in the Conference Semis – the Celtics are lacking consistency, by showing up in just 2 of 4 quarters which is impacting their ability to generate any offense at the death.

Moving into Game 3, of all starters, Jaylen Brown presents as the most well-equipped candidate to surpass his overs prop.

Jaylen is shooting it on 50% from the floor, returning 19 points per game and has the most advantageous of match-ups with either Robison and/or Herro being the direct opponent.

The Boston guard has extreme scoring capabilities and with the series on the line, I expect his usage to receive a slick uptick (resulting in a greater shot count).

Jaylen box scored 15 or more shots in 6 of 7 matches against the Raptors and he needs to get back to being aggressive. This activation starts with scoring in the paint. Right now the Celtics are playing short-handed on offensive end with Theis ineffective outside of setting the occasional screen.

Jaylen’s 3-point shot is going to be there – he is 62.5% on the series (5 from 8) but it’s his creativity and speed in transition that will bring the Celtics closer to an Eastern Conference Final win.

PICK – JAYLEN BROWN OVER 18.5 POINTS – WIN

MIAMI @ BOSTON

SERIES OPENER

PLAYER BETTING TRENDS

• Goran Dragic has 20+ points in 7 of his last 8 games against the Celtics. (19.5)
• Bam Adebayo has 18+ points in the Heat’s last 4 games as underdogs. (15.5)
• Jaylen Brown has 21+ points in 4  of the Celtics’ last 5 games. (18.5)
• Jimmy Butler has 20+ points in 6 of his last 7 games against the Celtics. (19.5)
• Jae Crowder has 16+ points in 5 of the Heat’s last 6 games. (12.5)
• Jayson Tatum has 10+ rebounds in 6 of the Celtics’ last 7 games as favorites. (8.5)
• Daniel Theis has 7+ rebounds in 7 of the Celtics’ last 9 games. (6.5)

() = BOOKIE LINE

MATCHUP TRENDS

• Celtics are 3-8 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
• Under is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings.

SEASON SERIES

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/- 

PICKS ATS

Following a Game 2 loss, raw emotion came to a head for the Celtics with reports of screaming and thrown objects in the locker room.

The Celtics’ loss saw them blow both a 17-point lead gained in the second quarter and a 5-point edge in the final 5 minutes. It was the 2nd-straight blown lead for Boston after the Heat came back from 14 points down in the 4th quarter to win in OT in Game 1, so tensions were high among players.

Even down 17 in the first half of Game 2, Miami never felt out of it, and it came through during a 3rd quarter, outscoring Boston 37-17 to take a 7-point lead into the 4th quarter.

The Heat look to have the cooler heads, and unless the Celtics can harness their frustrations into some kind of extra effort in 2nd-halves, this may not be the series we were looking for.

Like Overs best, but also love the Heat at some kind of alternate + line for a parlay.

PICK  –  OVER 205.5 TOTAL POINTS