GAME 1 – DENVER @ LA LAKERS – 18/9/20

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DP’S PLAYER PROP

SEASON RECORD: 71-41

10-1 HOT STREAK

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DENVER @ LA LAKERS

The Nuggets enter Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals on an all-time franchise high – however the mile high they are experiencing is not sustainable and will ultimately result in the Lakers taking an early series lead.

With a fresh set of situational match ups to dissect, my attention turns to the ever fatiguing Nikola Jokic on defense.

Nikola Jokic has been scintillating. I have so much praise for the “Nikola Jokic” product on the offensive side of the ball (IQ, finesse, range, screen work, spacing and crafty passing) but you can bet your bottom dollar Vogel and most importantly LeBron will look to expose the Joker’s deficiencies going the other way.

The Lakers will challenge Nikola on every single defensive possession.

LeBron, AD & Lakeshow haven’t been called upon to shift out of gear 1 through respective campaigns against the Trail Blazers & Rockets – whilst the Nuggets have been in an arm-wrestle for 14 straight matches.

Some may say the Nuggets are more acclimatised to bubble basketball and are better conditioned to weather the ebbs-and-flows of this series; but I say – there is no second chances with this Lakers team, lose concentration and you’ll be down 15+ (just like the Clippers series) but the difference is, the Lakers close out as a team, that’s right – a team.

The Stats Story So Far:

• Portland vs Nurkic: 29.8 ppg on 59% from the floor (11 FT attempted per game)
• Houston vs Tucker: 25.4 ppg on 58.8% from the floor (7.2 FT attempted per game)

Don’t be concerned by AD’s numbers in the Rockets Series.

For starters, the Lakers big man does not like being guarded by more agile small defenders. And he certainly wasn’t required to max out on minutes or shot attempts (down -10% SA from regular season) with the various blowouts in that series.

Regular Season Narrative: Anthony Davis returned modest numbers against the Nuggets throughout the regular season returning tallies of 33, 27, 25, 32 – on 54.67% (so in theory, a 2/2 split on his total in Game 1), however, the key difference being– increased usage; minutes & shot count.

In all likelihood, Millsap will get first crack at AD – but that is only until JaVale check out, and AD’s ability to score quickly will evolve when we get our match up, just need to be patient throughout the 48 minutes.

PICK –  ANTHONY DAVIS OVER 26.5 POINTS – WIN

SAME GAME MULTI – PLAY IT SAFE

• DENVER @ LA LAKERS – OVER 204.5 TOTAL POINTS (ALT LINE)
• DENVER @ LA LAKERS – DENVER +13.5 (ALT LINE)

ODDS – $2.05 – WIN

DENVER @ LA LAKERS

SERIES OPENER

PLAYER BETTING TRENDS

• Gary Harris has 11+ points in 14 of his last 15 games against the Lakers. (9.5)
• Nikola Jokic has 12+ rebounds in 5 of the Nuggets’ last 6 games. (10.5)
• Nikola Jokic has 26+ points in 4 of the Nuggets’ last 5 games at AdventHealth Arena. (22.5)
• Kyle Kuzma has 13+ points in 8 of his 10 previous games against the Nuggets. (10.5)
• LeBron James has 11+ assists in 5 of his last 6 games against the Nuggets. (8.5)

() = BOOKIE LINE

MATCHUP TRENDS

• Nuggets are 19-9 ATS in the last 28 meetings.
• Over is 20-7-2 in the last 29 meetings.

SEASON SERIES

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/- 

PICKS ATS

Denver will again be relishing the idea of entering another series as heavy underdogs, and there may be a few lines we may be able to steal from the bookies over the next few games.

The Nuggets went through after rallying from a 3-1 series deficit to shock the Clippers 104-89 in Game 7 behind 40 points from Jamal Murray and a triple-double by Nikola Jokic. The win and allowed the Nuggets to become the first NBA club to rally from back-to-back series after trailing 3-1.

Few thought Denver had any kind of chance of upsetting the Clippers, but the Nuggets rallied from double-digits with solid 2nd-half performances in 3-straight contests to finally win, and kill countless of NBA Futures bets by knocking out the Clippers.

The Lakers have dominated their post-season schedule after knocking out both the Blazers and the Rockets in 5 games to land in their first conference final in 10 years.

AD and LeBron are playing at their expected levels. Davis is averaging a team-high 27.6 ppg and 10.9 rpg in the postseason on 58.6% from the floor. Lebron is notching up 26.6 ppg, 10.3 rpg and 8.8 apg in the playoffs.

The Nuggets are playing in their first conference final in 11 years after losing to the Lakers in 6 games in 2009.

Overs best.

PICK  – OVER 210.5 TOTAL POINTS