FREE NBA PLAYOFF PICKS
*Original NBA Playoff picks and research are done a game day morning, adjust your selections accordingly should spreads and lineups change.
DP’S PLAYER PROP
SEASON RECORD: 72-43
Expert NBA Player Props analyst, Daniel Parisi, gives his best daily prop.
LA LAKERS @ DENVER
The Denver Nuggets very well know how to pack a punch but I do have ‘some’ reservations on how much juice they have left in the tank after a gut-wrenching loss at the death in Game 2.
It has become blatantly obvious in this series that there are only 4 capable scorers – slim pickings outside of respective duos Jokic/Murray & LeBron/AD.
So I’m going to run it back on Anthony Davis who finished with 31 points after starting the game 0-5.
AD has all the running in this series, and if you factor in his cold start – he finished the game 11 of 18 on the floor for 61%.
The Nuggets were 2.4 seconds, and a ridiculous 26-foot three-point jumper attempt from levelling up this series 1-1.
A defense lapse by Plumlee will forever haunt the Nuggets – but before they head back to mile high and reflect on the series, I think they’ll make one more run which gives me confidence there will be enough in this game wire-to-wire to make AD work offensively.
PICK – ANTHONY DAVIS OVER 28.5 POINTS
LA LAKERS @ DENVER
LA LAKERS LEAD 2-0
PLAYER BETTING TRENDS
- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has 10+ points in the Lakers’ last 4 games. (9.5)
- Anthony Davis has 31+ points in 6 of his last 7 games with his team as a favorite against the Nuggets. (28.5)
- LeBron James has 28+ points in 6 of his last 7 games in Game 3s of a playoff series. (26.5)
- Rajon Rondo has 8+ assists in 5 of the Lakers’ last 6 games. (6.5)
- Michael Porter Jr. has 14+ points in the Nuggets’ last 3 games against the Lakers. (10.5)
- Nikola Jokic has 25+ points in 13 of the Nuggets’ last 19 playoff games. (24.5)
- Jerami Grant has 4+ rebounds in 8 of his last 12 games against the Lakers. (3.5)
() = BOOKIE LINE
MATCHUP TRENDS
- Over is 21-8-2 in the last 31 meetings.
SEASON SERIES
| GAME 2 | LAL | DEN | 105 : 103 |
| GAME 1 | LAL | DEN | 126 : 114 |
| 11.08.20 | LAL | DEN | 124 : 121 |
| 13.02.20 | DEN | LAL | 116 : 120 (111 : 111) |
| 23.12.19 | LAL | DEN | 104 : 128 |
| 04.12.19 | DEN | LAL | 96 : 105 |
WIN/LOSS
| TEAM | W | L | HOME | ROAD |
| LAL | 52 | 19 | 25-10 | 27-9 |
| DEN | 46 | 27 | 26-11 | 20-16 |
SEASON POINTS +/-
| TEAM | PPG | OPPG | DIFF | AV. TOT |
| LAL | 113.4 | 107.6 | +5.8 | 221.0 |
| DEN | 111.3 | 109.2 | +2.1 | 220.5 |
PICKS ATS
| Spread | Points | Result |
| LAL | OVER | DEN |
| -6.5 | 213.5 | 114-106 |
A series deficit is par for the Nuggets’ course this postseason, but to go down the way they did in Game 2 must leave a few scars.
Denver have been the comeback kids in their two earlier series, rallying from 3-1 deficits to advance against the Jazz and the Clippers.
The Nuggets came within seconds of a get-even win in Game 2, falling 105-103 when Anthony Davis buried a contested 3-pointer just before the final horn.
The Nuggets’ biggest improvements from Game 1 to Game 2 came on the defensive end, limiting the Lakers to 44.6% shooting overall and 36.1% on 3-pointers after getting lit up for 53.0% overall and 44.6% on threes in the opener.
Denver forced 24 turnovers in Game 2 after just 12 in Game 1 and were able to flip the Lakers’ Game 1 advantage in free throws, getting 14 more free throws than the Lakers (33-19) in Game 2 after shooting 9 less in Game 1 (37-28).
Like the Overs again.
PICK – OVER 213.5 TOTAL POINTS
