FREE NBA PLAYOFF PICKS – 2/9/20

FREE NBA PLAYOFF PICKS

*These NBA Playoff picks and research are done the previous game day evening, adjust your selections accordingly should spreads and lineups change.

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DP’S PLAYER PROP

SEASON RECORD: 62-37

Expert NBA Player Props Analyst, Daniel Parisi, gives his best daily prop.

HOUSTON VS OKLAHOMA CITY

If you were part of the Harden bad beat last start, it would be in your best interest to go again because the facts are it’s win or go home and that = high usage and volume

It wasn’t a matter of inability in Game 6 for Harden to surpass 35+, it was a lack of desire to take possession in the final 5 minutes, be it D’Antoni’s or Westbrook’s fault by play design.

Harden knows the only way of the Rockets getting out of the first round is if he takes control. And that is exactly what is going to happen tomorrow.

I expect Harden to be far more aggressive tomorrow and win this game at the stripe and yes that will be coupled with multiple 3’s but it’s going to be his work at the FT line that gifts us 35+ points.

DP’S PICK –  JAMES HARDEN OVER 33.5 POINTS

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PARLAY

• MIAMI VS MILWAUKEE – MIAMI +6.5
• HOUSTON VS OKLAHOMA CITY – UNDER 219.5 TOTAL POINTS

ODDS – $3.67

PLAYER  PROP PARLAY

• HOUSTON VS OKLAHOMA CITY – JAMES HARDEN OVER 33.5 POINTS
• MIAMI VS MILWAUKEE – GORAN DRAGIC OVER 27.5 PRA

ODDS – $3.65

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TREND BET

MIAMI VS MILWAUKEE

MIAMI

• Under is 5-1 in last 6 games vs teams above .600.
• Under is 7-2 in last 9 vs teams above .500.
• Under is 5-1 in last 6 overall.

MILWAUKEE

• Under is 19-7 in last 26 games vs teams above .600.
• Under is 14-6-2 in last 22 vs teams above .500.

MATCHUP

• Under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings.

TREND BET – UNDER 223.5 TOTAL POINTS

*Strongest trend bet of the night. If trends are your thing, this is your pick.

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MIAMI VS MILWAUKEE

MIAMI LEAD 1-0

PLAYER BETTING TRENDS

• Goran Dragic has 20+ points in 8 of the Heat’s last 9 playoff games. (19.5)
• Tyler Herro has 15+ points in 9 of the Heat’s last 10 games. (13.5)
• Khris Middleton has made 3+ three-pointers in the Bucks’ last 4 games. (2.5)
• Giannis has scored the first basket in 6 of the Bucks’ last 12 playoff games.
• Wesley Matthews has 2+ three-pointers in 11 of his last 13 playoff games. (1.5)
• Giannis has 7+ assists in 5 of his 6 previous games in the Bubble. (6.5)
• Brook Lopez has 17+ points in the Bucks’ last 3 games against the Heat. (14.5)
• Bam Adebayo has 6+ assists in the Heat’s last 3 games as underdogs. (5.5)
• Khris Middleton has 25+ points in 3 of the Bucks’ last 4 games against the Heat. (22.5)
• Jimmy Butler has 24+ points in 5 of his 7 previous playoff games against the Bucks. (22.5)

() = BOOKIE LINE

MATCHUP TRENDS

• Heat are 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.
• Under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings.

SEASON SERIES

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/- 

The Heat pulled away late for a 115-104 win in Game 1, with Jimmy Butler outperforming Giannis.

Dragic had 27 points, Adebayo notched a double-double with 12 points and 17 rebounds, and Iguodala spearheaded a team defensive effort against Giannis. But, it was Butler’s postseason career-high 40 points that was the difference.

While Butler shot 12-for-13 at the free throw line, Giannis suffered through a 4-for-12 night, with Miami outscoring Milwaukee 25-14 from the line in the 11-point win.

The Bucks out-shot the Heat (49.3% to 46.4%) and on 3-pointers (45.7% to 38.7%), but took 9 fewer shots than Miami. Nineteen Bucks turnovers and 12 Heat offensive rebounds contributed to that disparity.

The Heat limited Giannis to 12 field goal attempts in the opener, and have not put a foot wrong.

PICK – MIAMI +6.5

PLAYER PROP

Expert NBA Player Props Analyst, Daniel Parisi, gives his best daily prop.

Spoelstra’s decision to move Dragic to the starting 5 has boded well for the Heat.

In his new role he’s been heavily involved in pick and rolls, and Miami have benefited from it.  Despite Dragic playing 34ish minutes per game in the playoffs, the bookies haven’t moved the PRA line a hell of a lot.

He’s averaged 23.6 points, 4.4 rebounds and 5.0 assists in the playoffs so far and is capable of those stats again in Game 2.

PICK –  GORAN DRAGIC OVER 27.5 PRA

Gamble Responsibly.

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OKLAHOMA CITY VS HOUSTON

SERIES TIED 3-3

PLAYER BETTING TRENDS

• Danuel House Jr. has 12+ points in his last 7 games in the Bubble. (9.5)
• Russell Westbrook has 7+ rebounds in 20 of his last 23 playoff games. (5.5)
• P.J. Tucker has 2+ three-pointers in 16 of the Rockets’ last 20 playoff games. (1.5)
• Robert Covington has 14+ points in the Rockets’ last 3 games. (11.5)
• Chris Paul has 26+ points in 3 of the Thunder’s last 4 games. (22.5)

() = BOOKIE LINE

MATCHUP TRENDS

• Thunder are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

SEASON SERIES

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/- 

PICKS ATS

Two words kept us awake the night following Game 6 — Russell. Westbrook.

If somebody can explain to us why Westbrook was bringing the ball up the court in the final minutes of Game 6, I’ll shout you a beer every day for the rest of your life.

In Games 1, 2 and 5, the Rockets averaged just 8.3 turnovers and eased to double-digit wins. In Games 3, 4 and 6, Houston averaged 17.3 turnovers in three close losses, including 22 giveaways in a 104-100 loss on Monday.

“Twenty-two (turnovers) just sealed our fate,” Rockets coach Mike D’Antoni told reporters after Game 6.

Will Westbrook redeem himself? Will Harden want the ball in the final minutes?

PICK – UNDER 219.5 TOTAL POINTS