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*These NBA computer picks are done the morning of game day, adjust picks should spreads and lineups change.
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DALLAS @ BOSTON
NBA FINALS – GAME 5
BOSTON LEAD 3-1
Over/Under Pick: Under 209.5 Total Points
This matchup presents a robust case for the under, primarily based on both teams’ consistent performance trends:
- Dallas Mavericks’ Trends: Dallas has a strong trend of hitting the game total under, doing so in 50 of their last 78 games, showcasing a significant 22% ROI. Their particular strength in keeping second quarter scores low also supports a lower overall scoring game.
- Boston Celtics’ Trends: Similarly, Boston has hit the 4Q game total under in 63 of their last 93 games, yielding a high 28% ROI. Their defensive strength, particularly in closing out games, aligns with their overall trend towards low-scoring outcomes.
These consistent under-hitting trends from both teams suggest that a total set at 209.5 is likely to go under, especially considering the strong defensive capabilities shown by both teams late in games.
ATS Pick: Boston Celtics -7.0
Boston is favored to cover the spread based on their strong performance in various game segments, alongside their home advantage:
- Boston’s Home and Half-Time Strengths: The Celtics have shown they can dominate early in games, particularly at home, which is crucial for covering spreads. They’ve covered the 1H Spread in 65 of their last 100 games, showing a solid 21% ROI. They also maintain momentum into the second quarter, having covered the 2Q Spread in 59 of their last 99 games, yielding a 17% ROI.
- Performance Against Dallas: Boston’s historical performance against Dallas, especially in first-half scenarios, further supports their ability to cover. They’ve consistently won the first half in recent matchups, which correlates strongly with their ability to cover larger spreads.
Moreover, Boston’s comprehensive capability to manage game pace and maintain leads through to the fourth quarter, where they have also excelled (covering the 4Q Spread in 25 of the last 39 games), suggests they are well-prepared to cover a -7.0 spread against Dallas.
