*These NBA computer picks are done the morning of game day, adjust picks should spreads and lineups change.
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER for the best NBA computer picks and extra betting trends.
CLEVELAND @ ORLANDO
EASTERN CONFERENCE 1ST ROUND – GAME 4
CLEVELAND LEADS 2-1
Over/Under Prediction: Over 201.0 Total Points
Both Cleveland Cavaliers and Orlando lean towards higher-scoring games in various quarters and overall game totals. The Cavs have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 17 of their last 25 games (+8.95 Units / 31% ROI), showing a trend for early scoring. The Magic have had higher-scoring third quarters, hitting the 3Q Game Total Over in 46 of their last 76 games (+14.15 Units / 16% ROI).
The matchup data, including the home team covering the spread in the Magic’s last 9 games and the Cavaliers’ and Magic’s recent playoff matchups typically resulting in higher-scoring games, suggests that this game could see more points scored.
ATS Prediction: Orlando Magic -1.0
The Magic have a strong record at home, covering the spread in their last 9 games at home. Additionally, playoff matchups between the Cavaliers and the Magic have seen the home team win in the last 8 games, indicating a favorable trend for the Magic at home.
Considering the Magic’s recent success at home, coupled with their historical dominance in playoff matchups against the Cavaliers at home, they are a solid pick to cover the -1.0 spread in this game.
Best Pick: Over 201.0 Total Points
OKLAHOMA CITY @ NEW ORLEANS
WESTERN CONFERENCE 1ST ROUND – GAME 3
OKLAHOMA CITY LEADS 2-0
Over/Under Prediction: Over 208.5 Total Points
Both the Thunder and the Pelicans have leaned towards higher-scoring games. The Thunder have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 37 away games (+8.70 Units / 21% ROI).
Similarly, the Pelicans have hit the 1H Moneyline in 55 of their last 82 games (+25.30 Units / 16% ROI) and the 1Q Moneyline in 53 of their last 82 games (+20.65 Units / 16% ROI), indicating their ability to start games strong, leading to higher-scoring first halves.
Considering these trends, along with the fact that the Pelicans have won the first quarter in 6 of their last 8 home games against the Thunder, there’s a strong indication that this game will see a decent amount of scoring.
ATS Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder -1.0
Despite the Pelicans’ strong performance in the first quarter at home against the Thunder in recent matchups, the Thunder have covered the spread in their last 9 road games against the Pelicans, indicating their ability to perform well against this opponent on the road.
The Thunder are on a 7-game winning streak. This recent form, combined with their historical success against the Pelicans on the road, makes them a solid pick to cover the -1.0 spread.
Best Pick: Over 208.5 Total Points
BOSTON @ MIAMI
EASTERN CONFERENCE 1ST ROUND – GAME 3
SERIES TIED 1-1
Over/Under Prediction: Under 202.0 Total Points
The Celtics have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 51 of their last 77 games (+22.30 Units / 25% ROI), indicating slower final quarters. They have struggled to hit the 4Q Game Total Over, doing so in only 36 of their last 99 games (-34.35 Units / -30% ROI).
The Heat have shown a tendency towards lower-scoring games, hitting the Game Total Under in 57 of their last 95 games (+15.20 Units / 15% ROI). They have also struggled to hit the Game Total Over, achieving this in only 38 of their last 95 games (-24.70 Units / -24% ROI).
Considering these trends, along with the fact that the Heat’s last 4 playoff home games went Unders.
ATS Prediction: Miami Heat +9.0
Despite the Heat’s struggles as home underdogs and their failure to cover their last 4 playoff games following a win, the +9.0 spread seems generous given the Celtics’ historical trends. While the Celtics have done well in the first half and covered the 1H spread in many away games, the Heat have covered the 2Q Spread in 18 of their last 24 games (+12.30 Units / 44% ROI), indicating their ability to keep games competitive in the first half.
Miami’s trend to keep games close early on, combined with their desperate situation as they try to avoid elimination, suggests they could cover the 9-point spread.
Best Pick: Under 202.0 Total Points
DENVER @ LA LAKERS
WESTERN CONFERENCE 1ST ROUND – GAME 4
DENVER LEADS 3-1
Over/Under Prediction: Under 217.5 Total Points
The Nuggets and Lakers have leaned towards lower-scoring games, particularly in their recent playoff matchups.
The Nuggets have hit the Game Total Under in 57 of their last 96 games (+16.35 Units / 15% ROI). Additionally, their last 6 playoff games went Unders, suggesting a trend towards slower play and pressure defensive.
The Lakers have struggled to hit the Game Total Under, achieving this in only 28 of their last 71 games (-18.15 Units / -23% ROI). However, the Nuggets’ dominance over the Lakers in their recent matchups, winning their last 11 encounters, and their ability to cover the spread in their last 6 playoff road games, indicate a nullifying defensive that could limit the Lakers’ scoring opportunities.
ATS Prediction: Denver Nuggets -3.5
The Nuggets have a remarkable track record against the Lakers, winning their last 11 games against LA. They have covered the spread in their last 6 playoff road games, indicating their ability to perform well away from home under playoff pressure.
While the Lakers might have historically performed well in the first half of games, the Nuggets’ recent dominance over them suggests they can overcome any early deficit and ultimately cover the -3.5 spread.
