*These NBA Computer Picks for the 1st Roudn of the NBA Playoffs are mad e the morning of the games. So pleas echeck lines and spreads and adjust picks accordingly should odds change.
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MIAMI @ BOSTON
EASTERN CONFERENCE 1ST ROUND – GAME 1
Over/Under Prediction: Under 209.5 Total Points
This prediction leverages the Miami Heat’s consistent performance in hitting the Game Total Under, evident in 56 of their last 93 games. This trend is notably strong in away games where the Heat have excelled at keeping the total points low, as seen in 25 of their last 34 away games going under in the 4Q alone.
Boston’s tendency towards under results in fourth quarters further supports this prediction, emphasizing defensive prowess in late-game situations. Given these strong under trends, despite the Heat’s recent trend of overs on the road, the overall pattern across many games suggests a potential under scenario.
ATS Prediction: Boston Celtics -14.0
While a 14-point spread is substantial, Boston’s dominant home performance against Eastern Conference teams, winning 25 of their last 26, suggests they are capable of covering large spreads.
Boston’s ability to consistently win and cover in the first half in home games strengthens the argument for their ability to build a significant early lead, necessary to cover such a spread.
Best Pick: Under 209.5 Total Points
DALLAS @ LA CLIPPERS
WESTERN CONFERENCE 1ST ROUND – GAME 1
Over/Under Prediction: Under 223.0 Total Points
This prediction leans heavily on the Dallas Mavericks’ strong trend toward the under in recent games, having gone under in 38 of their last 57 games, accompanied by a notable trend of hitting the 2Q Game Total Under in 35 of their last 53 games.
The Clippers have also shown a tendency towards the under, particularly in the team totals and overall game totals. Given that the Mavericks’ last 8 games at the Crypto.com Arena have all gone under, this adds a location-specific trend that further solidifies the under as a compelling pick.
ATS Prediction: Dallas Mavericks -2.5
The Mavericks have a solid track record of covering the spread, doing so in 24 of their last 33 games, indicating strong performance relative to bookmaker expectations. On the other side, the Clippers have struggled significantly at home, with a recent record of only covering the spread in 10 of their last 33 games.
This disparity in covering the spread could point towards an advantage for the Mavericks, especially given the relatively small spread of -2.5.
Best Pick: Under 223.0 Total Points
INDIANA @ MILWAUKEE
EASTERN CONFERENCE 1ST ROUND – GAME 1
Over/Under Prediction: Under 231.0 Total Points
This game presents a strong case for an under bet, mainly due to the consistent under trends displayed by both teams. The Indiana Pacers have notably hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 30 away games, achieving a high 40% ROI on these outcomes.
The Milwaukee Bucks have shown strong under performances at home, with specific trends in the 1Q and 1H Game Total Under, further supported by their overall team total unders. Given these patterns, the total set at 231 points offers a favorable under opportunity, especially considering Indiana’s strong under performance in fourth quarters.
ATS Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks -1.5
The spread betting decision leans towards the Milwaukee Bucks, given their ability to cover the 1Q and 1H spreads effectively at home. Their home court advantage and recent performance in early game segments provide a strong basis for this choice.
Indiana’s recent playoff form shows significant struggles both in covering spreads and securing wins, which underlines potential challenges they might face in overcoming Milwaukee’s advantage at home.
Best Pick: Under 231.0 Total Points
NEW ORLEANS @ OKLAHOMA CITY
WESTERN CONFERENCE 1ST ROUND – GAME 1
ATS Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder -5.5
Oklahoma City Thunder have a strong trend of covering the spread at home, having covered in 26 of their last 38 home games, reflecting a 31% ROI. They also have an impressive record of winning outright at home, with a 32-5 record in their last 37 home games.
This strong home-court performance makes them a favorable choice against the spread, especially considering the Thunder’s success in the 3rd and 4th quarter spreads at home.
Over/Under Prediction: Under 215.5 Total Points
The trend towards unders in games where the Pelicans are underdogs is notable, with 9 of their last 11 such games going under the total points line. Although the Thunder have been successful in hitting team total overs at home, the Pelicans’ games tend to trend under, and they have a strong record of hitting unders away from home.
Given these factors, the total set at 215.5 leans towards a probable under outcome, aligning with the Pelicans’ recent trends in games as underdogs.
Best Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder -5.5
