*These NBA Playoff picks are done the morning of game day, adjust picks should spreads and lineups change.
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BOSTON @ MIAMI
EASTERN CONFERENCE 1ST ROUND – GAME 4
BOTON LEADS 2-1
Over/Under Prediction: Under 204.5 Total Points
Both Boston and Miami have leaned toward lower-scoring games. The Heat have hit the Game Total Under in 58 of their last 96 games, while the Celtics have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 52 of their last 78 games. The Heat’s last 6 games as home underdogs went Unders, indicating a trend of lower-scoring affairs when they are not favored.
Given these trends and the fact that both teams have strong defensive capabilities, the Under on the total points line of 203.0 seems like a promising pick for this game.
ATS Prediction: Miami Heat +10.0
Although the Celtics have been strong in the first quarter in their recent road games against the Heat, the Heat have covered their last 9 games after a loss. Furthermore, the Heat have lost their last 14 games as home underdogs, suggesting that they tend to perform better than expected in these situations.
Given Miami’s resilience after losses and historical performance as home underdogs, taking the Miami Heat with a +10.0 spread appears to be a favorable choice for this matchup.
Over/Under Prediction: Under 204.5 Total Points
OKLAHOMA CITY @ NEW ORLEANS
WESTERN CONFERENCE 1ST ROUND – GAME 4
OKLAHOMA CITY LEADS 3-0
Over/Under Prediction: Under 208.0 Total Points
Both Oklahoma City and the New Orleans lean lower-scoring games, particularly in their recent matchups. The Thunder have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 74 games (-12.90 Units / -16% ROI), indicating a trend for games with fewer total points.
The Pelicans have struggled to hit the Game Total Over, achieving this in only 31 of their last 76 games (-18.50 Units / -22% ROI), suggesting a trend towards defensive battles.
With 7 of the Pelicans’ last 8 games as home underdogs going Unders and the Thunder winning their last 8 games while covering their last 10 road games against the Pelicans, the under seems like a strong pick for this matchup.
ATS Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder -4.5
The Thunder have shown dominance on the road against the Pelicans, covering the spread in their last 10 matchups. Their recent winning streak, coupled with their ability to win the first quarter in 5 of their last 6 games, indicates a strong start to games, potentially leading to a comfortable margin of victory.
With the Pelicans’ struggles to maintain consistency at home and the Thunder’s recent road success against them, taking Oklahoma City to cover the -4.5 spread appears to be a favorable pick.
Best Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder -4.5
DENVER @ LA LAKERS
WESTERN CONFERENCE 1ST ROUND – GAME 5
DENVER LEADS 3-2
Over/Under Prediction: Under 217.0 Total Points
The Nuggets have hit the Game Total Under in 57 of their last 97 games (+15.25 Units / 14% ROI), giving a trend for games with fewer total points. The last 4 Nuggets’ home games against the Lakers went Unders.
The Lakers have struggled to hit the Game Total Over, achieving this in only 39 of their last 64 games (+12.60 Units / 18% ROI). The underdogs have covered 7 of the last 8 playoff games between the Lakers and Nuggets, highlighting a trend towards tighter defensive contests, especially in playoffs.
These factors, along with the matchup data favoring lower-scoring games and recent trends indicating defensive battles, taking the under seems like the prudent choice for this matchup.
ATS Prediction: Denver Nuggets -6.0
The Nuggets have dominated at home against the Lakers, winning their last 7 matchups. With the underdogs covering 7 of the last 8 playoff games between these teams, there’s a historical trend favoring the underdog, which in this case is the Nuggets.
The Lakers’ recent struggles to cover the 4Q Spread and the Nuggets’ strong defensive presence at home, as evidenced by their recent home games against the Lakers going Unders, suggest that Denver has a good chance of covering the -7.0 spread in this matchup.
